Thanks for the great reply. What is your 95% low temp you’ve calculated out in your area? It sounds like it’s not much different than mine and perhaps the 40 grade could be more well suited to my climate than I am willing to emotionally allow myself to believe.
NGL, you’ve got me looking at that 40 for my small engines. None of them run in temps cold enough to be of any concern, even the generator because it’s stored in the garage which is warmer than outdoor ambient because it’s under the house. Still wondering how well my Navigator would fare cranking that stuff in cold weather. It’s already a little sluggish with the PCMO 5w-40.
Definitely a YMMV situation, but the 5th percentile for my area is about 6F, so only a 5% chance of getting a temp colder than that.
On average there are 4 days a year below zero here, about 15-20 days per year below 10F, and 40-50 days per year below 20F.
We’re more than halfway through winter and I’ve never had a situation where the 15w-40 creates any concern at all that it wouldn’t crank. My Accord is still on its OEM battery (2022 model year) and it’s not a spring chicken nor particularly high grade compared to the X2 I’d normally buy.
When I determined the 15w was acceptable, I noted that the HPL’s CCS was about 6200 at -20C, which is -4F. There’s only about a 1% chance of that as a morning low in my area, and I’m garaging the car for most of the coldest days. So the worst start is after a cold soak in the work parking lot at closer to the afternoon high. It turns out my conversation with “Dr Rudnick” confirmed the cold start scuff wear doesn’t really accelerate until the oil exceeds 9000cP.
Excessively thick oil when cold is one of the easiest things to mitigate if one really wanted to. If you have a garage OR access to a block heater or oil pan heater, then it’s a non issue in many of the worst starts. If you live in ND and need to start your car at the end of the shift in -30F ambients, then you need a 0w oil and any consideration of less is not a great idea, IMO.
When it’s 10F outside, my garage is a balmy 45F. That’s effortlessly crankable all day long with SAE 40 monograde HPL.
“Dr Rudnick” indicates that startup scuff wear for cheap oil blends really spikes above 9000cP cranking viscosity. So if you are below the J300 rated points, you will have less than that. My 15w has about 6200cP at -20C. So in theory it’s fine down to -4F in terms of startup wear risk.
But in reality, it’s much better than fine because HPL blends 1) esters which have superb wetting for startup wear prevention, and 2) moly which has excellent anti-scuff when cold (unlike ZDDP which is useless at cold temps).
To wrap this up, HPLs blends make it very low risk to crank their oils all the way down to the SAE J300 test points for the winter rating. The 15w at -20C is not going to let your engine die.
The lower limit of the SAE 40 is the real open question in terms of a practical limit. Using 6000cP as a safety limit for viscosity, my analysis showed that
the lower limit for cranking for the SAE 40 is about 15F. This is based on the Walther equation and some interpolating of points between 0F and 20F. At 15F, it’s about 5000cP.
Which is about what the 15w grade is at 0F. So the monograde loses about 15F of temperature at the lower cranking limit.
So if you NEVER see temps below 20F, IMO you can safely run the SAE 40 monograde all year long, giving a small buffer against the calculated 15F threshold.
It just so happens that the 5th percentile for afternoon temps (4-5pm) is just about 15F. So the monograde could work for me because 1) my morning start is almost always garaged, 2) my afternoon start is after a soak in warmer ambient temps that have only a 5% probability of approaching my cranking limit viscosity.
So the monograde is only a risk for me if the temp drops below the 5% chance value on a day I happen to go to the office, so a 3/7 chance times a 5% chance.
So there’s some significant reasons to think the SAE 40 could be acceptable even in my locality.
But the viability of the entire project turns on how the 15w-40 does at the 5k miles UOA. If it comes back as epic as the GX460 did, then it’s really, really hard to justify going for that last little bit with the monograde. It would be nice to trim out the VII and buff the AN, but the lab data might indicate there’s no real utility in it.
If so, I’ll blend in the SAE 40 in modest amounts and give it a good life.
Or just dump it all in the GX which I KNOW can handle the SAE 40 because of the short trip nature and always garaged first start (along with never sitting in one place for hours and hours that isn’t our warm garage).
The monograde I buy will get used, even if not as sole contents of my Accord.