As tiresome as I find the relentless faultfinding and argumentation of some users I generally ignore, I will mention again that the 15w-40 was run from September last year though Feb this year-- entirely on normal blend fuels. I think that one almost irrefutable takeaway is therefore that the 15w-40 HPL lost essentially zero MPG relative to the Valvoline Valvoline Restore and Protect 5w-30. The HPL has the disadvantage of never any summer fuel and significantly more cold weather operation. And yet the 0.2 mpg difference over a lengthy 4400+ mile interval is essentially statistically indistinguishable from the 5w-30.
How many BITOG users would agree with the assertion that you could use a 15w-40 in place of 5w-30 over a winter and lose essentially no MPG over the 5w-30 that had the benefit of summer fuel? But that's what my data is strongly suggesting. The magnitude of mpg loss from the HPL 15w-40-- if it even exists-- it too small to measure.
Only the Valvoline Restore and Protect 5w-30 has benefited at all from any summer fuel.
Regression to the mean is a thing. Drive something long enough and the differences in fuel, climate, and even duty cycle do not matter.
The point here is that the regression to the mean of ~29mpg *should* have reasonably taken much longer with SAE 40 since the car is using the same fuels in the same duty cycle with the same driver using the same techniques on literally the same exact tires.
I collect and review engineering data for a living. I feel like I know the difference between anecdotes like butt dynos and real actual data. (Hence why I'm
building a smarter oil temperature and pressure gauge to get better data). After doing it a couple decades, I have a pretty good feel for how data sets evolve.
Which is why I say that when the first half tank was at 23mpg immediately after the SAE 40 fill, it is quite noteworthy that in only a couple hundred miles the *average* has already risen to the long term average associated with the other oils over their runs. If the true average on SAE 40 was merely equal to the others, the moving average of the SAE 40 would only asymptotically approach the averages of the prior oils.
In order for the SAE 40 to raise it's mpg-for-oci average so quickly to that of the other oils, it simply must have a much higher short run average. Indeed, the first complete tank on SAE 40 ended up at almost 31. I filled up on the way home from work last night, so I have another tank of data in progress.
Granted, it's only one tank but it is indeed representative of my car usage of 35min highway commutes M-W followed by errand running in evenings and weekends.
The data might ultimately support the statement that the monograde raises fuel economy. But all I'm contending at this point is that there's almost certainly no loss-- consistent with the 15w-40 showing that the 40 grade HPL cost me no MPG over the lighter Valvoline Restore and Protect predecessor.