Two pictures I once saw of the City of Toronto 10 years apart. Photo one was in the teens and the streets were full of horse and just a car or two, Photo two ten years later should a city of cars and the horse almost crowded out.
I worked on electric trucks with on board batteries the K1050E for Kiruna, they were primitive using 80s technology in a 90s production machine used into the 00s ( a 50 ton off road haul truck for mining ). The second generation stunned me with its simplicity and improvements ( and steps backward like the diesel electric back up drive instead of the batteries ). Now 10+1 years after that a third generation of improved electric off road machines confront me, and I am shying away from as much as I can.
The first generation were hard to work on and clumsy designs but at least I could understand the components, the second generation adopted racks of modular components that you did not fix, you just towed the heap to a shop and replaced a rack you did not need to know what the black boxes did or see the software it was running. The next generation will be completely un-serviceable and you not fix it yourself you will have to pay someone to come in and do everything.
A new level of rent seeking will find its way into your life. The car will not be the expensive bit or the electricity that powers it, the software that runs it all is where the money will be made. Think about it when is the last time you bought any software? You rent everything now except the PC or phone and anything that is free is running a scam someplace that comodifies and some how profits from you the consumer and you will not be allowed to opt out.
I work in mining and its well known that the air quality is killing us down there. We had all electric mines built around a different concept of production, but diesel was cheaper so they decided to go with that. ( not everyone will die of cancer you know, its about safety as low as reasonable achievable ). Nothing here to do with being green or sustainable and friendly this is a rip and run business and the rules are changing, the cancer is hard to ignore. SO... We are an early adopter of this new fangled electric technology for everything from run about to dump trucks.
Back to the car:
Your local garage will not fix your electric car, they have no training, they have no qualified people. Imagine for a minute the hourly labour rate for a man that is a mechanic, electrician, an electronics technician and software technician. Your dealership might not be there because you bought the car online and a factory service man will have to be dispatched to service the car. These are huge disruptions most of a dealerships income is from service and all of an independent shops income is for post warranty cars. I bet you might not even own the car and chose to rent it to, and if you rent it then you might consider a time share on an autonomous machine because that's cheaper.
The disruptions will be huge, the effects on out economy unknown and we have not even considered this all the while most people just talk about charging stations and range. This technology could become a brand new way to suck money out of your wallet while your gas car is regulated into oblivion. I'm just hoping the city will still have a fleet of buses because I will need to get around in this new world and I am not willing to buy into another rent seeking machine.
Think hard about that. You might not own anything, software is conjored out of thin air and costs nothing to replicate once its produced and you are going to be asked to pay for that just to enjoy the privilege of mobility. But thats ten years down the line maybe, and I have a crap track record of reading the crystal ball
