Ford's $35.1 Billion EV Fiasco

[Brons2]

Ford mildly had my interest when it was first announced as a contractor stripper truck but it was still a hard sell at $40k. Greed then quickly took over, I dont remember what $40k starting turned into, but the end result was gaslighting themselves. No sympathy here.

My base model 2024 XLT stickered at $65,690. Leased for $299.96 mo. Ford is losing their shirt on my truck, that is the problem, although as you say, I'm not really sorry about it. I got a no-brainer deal on the truck and I didn't dither on signing the papers.

They needed to figure out how to make these things more cheaply without making them feel cheap a la the Model Y*. The Lightning is a fantastic vehicle, favorite I've ever owned er leased.

*in fairness, I have not driven the Model Y refresh, aka Juniper.

 

[Brons2]

Here is another take on EV developments at Ford. The interesting takeaway from this article is how Ford misread their own market and how concentrated EV sales are to a very narrow demographic niche. Actually it is the intersection of three demgraphics, two of which most anyone could have guessed. https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/fords-351-billion-ev-fiasco

Meanwhile, I'm wondering why I even read that. The guy clearly has a bone to pick with EVs, and delves into politics and demographics.

"Electric vehicles are the Next Big Thing, and they always will be."

Should have stopped there. There is nothing to be gleaned from reading this biased article. If an EV doesn't work for your use case, if it's going to cost you more than driving an ICE vehicle, great, don't buy one.

It's working fantastic for our use case.

 

[JunkdrawerDog]

People deny buying EVs because V-signalling but that has to be a chunk of it.

Oddly I am not in that group fully - like hardly. YET we buck the trend, because we will be buying the right EV. It makes sense where we live. Not many fuel stations close (and hate gas stations), easy to do 100% home charging, short county travel distances, relatively low electric rates, etc. Point being don't label everyone who owns an EV with the L loser group.

This describes my BIL to a tee. He bought a hybrid last February and only recently bought his first tank of gasoline. Charges at home. Travels locally for the most part. The only reason he didn't go full EV was the possibility of long distance road trips to visit his daughter. He and his wife are both retired and share a single car (as do my wife and I). Their hybrid purchase has worked out quite well.

 

[johnachak]

People deny buying EVs because V-signalling but that has to be a chunk of it.

Oddly I am not in that group fully - like hardly. YET we buck the trend, because we will be buying the right EV. It makes sense where we live. Not many fuel stations close (and hate gas stations), easy to do 100% home charging, short county travel distances, relatively low electric rates, etc. Point being don't label everyone who owns an EV with the L loser group.

I just don't like the Lithium mining and dirty nickel smelting in third world nations destroying the planet, exploiting labor and giving China $$$$$ They are also part of the reason for electricity prices going up (The A.I. farms are also adding).

 

[Astro_Guy]

Meanwhile, I'm wondering why I even read that. The guy clearly has a bone to pick with EVs, and delves into politics and demographics.

You seem to have missed the point. Ford and other legacy manufacturers have a customer base built up over decades. That customer base needs to be moved forward with evolutionary steps. They were on the right track with their PHEV linup going on ten years ago but seem to have largely abandoned it. I drive one of their PHEVs and it has taught me that I could live with an EV for the vast majority of my driving. Looking at the demographis presented, EV buyers are people who used to drive BMWs. The demographics don't describe a typical Ford buyer and they certainly do not describe the average F150 buyer.

 

[SeaJay]

Seemingly the winds of change were pushing all electric sales by the mid 2030's. Ford got on board with those winds much to its current dismay.

 

[Danno]

I just don't like the Lithium mining and dirty nickel smelting in third world nations destroying the planet, exploiting labor and giving China $$$$$ They are also part of the reason for electricity prices going up (The A.I. farms are also adding).

I live in a nickel producing region of Canada. Just spoke with a miner on Saturday. In his mine, they found ore reserves for the next 45 years. Much more being found in other mines in our area. Also, a major nickel mine north of Timmins is getting fast tracked, for us that means maybe 10 years for 1st production. There is plenty of nickel supply being mined somewhat earth friendly and not China sourced. Interesting that copper is near parity on spot pricing with nickel. Another metal we produce in large quantities.

 

[LDM]

They're out there. If I had room I'd have a cheap Leaf for a town car.

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for...modelCode=LEAF&numRecords=25&sortBy=relevance

https://phoenix.craigslist.org/nph/ctd/d/phoenix-christmas-deals-ho-ho-ho2015/7902049154.html

https://phoenix.craigslist.org/cph/cto/d/laveen-2012-nissan-leaf-sv/7896826565.html

Those are used, I was referring to brand new. No way am I buying a 13+ year old EV with a battery that is either at the end of its life or almost there.

I've rebuilt enough battery packs in tools and other equipment over the years and while I've had good luck getting 10+ years of useful life out of my Black & Decker 20V packs, they need replacing at some point. Easier on some equipment than others, I just rebuilt 2 of my B&D packs last year as they were barely able to run a drill for more than a few minutes anymore. I also used higher rated cells than what the packs actually had, so they went from 20Wh packs to 60Wh and last even longer than the newer ones I have that are 50Wh. I actually just tried to rebuild the battery pack on my Eufy 30c robot and it didn't like the new batteries and wouldn't charge. Fortunately a new battery for that is only around $20.

There is no way I am going to spend the time, money, and effort to put in a new or rebuilt battery pack on a vehicle. This is one of the areas that EVs really fail in, battery replacement. Very expensive, difficult to replace, and you know at some point you will have to replace the battery. If someone would come up with a modular or swapable battery pack for vehicles, this might help that problem but no one really seems interested in doing this.

 

[Dave Hess]

Here is another take on EV developments at Ford. The interesting takeaway from this article is how Ford misread their own market and how concentrated EV sales are to a very narrow demographic niche. Actually it is the intersection of three demgraphics, two of which most anyone could have guessed. https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/fords-351-billion-ev-fiasco

Ford bought into EV hype they could compete with Tesla.

They did NOT realize EV buyers do NOT want a very bland boring Ford compared to Tesla with all the innovation, technology, unique styling and X factor.

It’s OK for Ford to admit EV failure and total waste of time and money.

 

[Brons2]

I just don't like the Lithium mining and dirty nickel smelting in third world nations destroying the planet, exploiting labor and giving China $$$$$ They are also part of the reason for electricity prices going up (The A.I. farms are also adding).

Yet you're perfectly OK with extracting oil from ground, from tar sands, from the bottom of the sea, refinining, and burning it. The "I don't like extraction" line of reasoning makes absolutely no sense.

And people are searching for lithium basically everywhere, and it's being found, including in the continental US. I don't like China either, but things are changing.

EVs are a drop in the bucket currently compared to datacenters. I have toured a 42 acre datacenter in San Antonio that uses enough energy to power 50,000 homes.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Wait till the big boys get in" mantra

You mean BYD? When will we be able to buy one?

Throw in some rolling blackouts, from a hot summer and more EVs, and it'll get super interesting.

Why wait - big tech is lobbying to take the electrical grid / blackout priority away from the states so they can power their data centers without interruption. Look into it - fully true.

They're out there. If I had room I'd have a cheap Leaf for a town car.

Yes me too. Would make a great local car. Could likely charge on 120V without issue for short trips, etc.

 

[Brons2]

You seem to have missed the point. Ford and other legacy manufacturers have a customer base built up over decades. That customer base needs to be moved forward with evolutionary steps. They were on the right track with their PHEV linup going on ten years ago but seem to have largely abandoned it. I drive one of their PHEVs and it has taught me that I could live with an EV for the vast majority of my driving. Looking at the demographis presented, EV buyers are people who used to drive BMWs. The demographics don't describe a typical Ford buyer and they certainly do not describe the average F150 buyer.

I did not miss the point. Clearly this guy has some sort of outside bias. It's literally in the first few sentences, if you can't see that, then I'm not sure I can help you.

"Electric vehicles are the Next Big Thing, and they always will be."

"Anytime soon? How about never? Does never work for you?"

Are you getting what I'm putting down here? He does not start talking about customers until I'm literally halfway down the page. It seems like you are selectively choosing to read the parts you want to read, if you think I missed the point.

The points about evolutionary steps were not emphasized, rather, he emphasized the political and demographic leanings of people who were EV owners, later in the article.

The bottom line on all these EV trucks is that the costs were/are too high. This can be easily evidenced by the fact that there were so many reservations ahead of time, that were ultimately not converted to sales because the price went up. People want them, but not at $80K.

Maybe I should just start writing my own Substack articles.

 

[Brons2]

You mean BYD? When will we be able to buy one?


Why wait - big tech is lobbying to take the electrical grid / blackout priority away from the states so they can power their data centers without interruption. Look into it - fully true.

Yes me too. Would make a great local car. Could likely charge on 120V without issue for short trips, etc.

I can tell you that, at the 42 acre Tier 1 datacenter I visited in San Antonio, which uses enough juice in normal operations to power 50,000 homes, they turn on the 20 V16 quad-turbo CAT generators when ERCOT calls and says they need the power. That seems fair.

 

[Astro_Guy]

I did not miss the point. Clearly this guy has some sort of outside bias. It's literally in the first few sentences, if you can't see that, then I'm not sure I can help you.

I probably should have asked you to separate his opinions from the facts he presented. My bad. Clearly this was an opinion piece but it was the facts that I found to be interesting. Two of the demographic groups were obvious but the skew towards male drivers took me by surprise.

 

[4wd]

I can tell you that, at the 42 acre Tier 1 datacenter I visited in San Antonio, which uses enough juice in normal operations to power 50,000 homes, they turn on the 20 V16 quad-turbo CAT generators when ERCOT calls and says they need the power. That seems fair.

My boss’s brother works for that leg of CAT - said he finally told them we do have other industries to supply - and you can’t have 100% of our machines …

 

[4wd]

Ford took the short path (easy path?) to electrification; they put electric drivetrain in their cash cow F-150. GM did the same with the Bolt; they used an existing platform. Neither are pure play architecture. And neigher have ever made a penny. The "Wait till the big boys get in" mantra has proven to be much ado about nothing. It was supposed to be easy.

I give Ford kudos for breaking out the EV financials; others bury their losses in the numbers.
I wish Ford well in their endeavours; they will get there.

$8 gallon? Please. I just paid $3.59 for rag at Costco. Of course that's the lowest in quite a while.

You post these same things almost daily - but don’t accept who did the damage by strong arming these companies …

 

[Astro_Guy]

I can tell you that, at the 42 acre Tier 1 datacenter I visited in San Antonio, which uses enough juice in normal operations to power 50,000 homes, they turn on the 20 V16 quad-turbo CAT generators when ERCOT calls and says they need the power. That seems fair.

How often does that happen and what's the sell price in $/MWh? That's got to be relatively inneficient. Note the key word "relatively."

 

[SC Maintenance]

I can tell you that, at the 42 acre Tier 1 datacenter I visited in San Antonio, which uses enough juice in normal operations to power 50,000 homes, they turn on the 20 V16 quad-turbo CAT generators when ERCOT calls and says they need the power. That seems fair.

Yes, that is fair. There trying to avoid that inconvenience going forward. https://apnews.com/article/power-el...centers-grid-6f52e60c4924f634a21fb5f35d68f29b

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

At the time all the majors were going all in on EVs, I thought they were making a big mistake. You can't make people buy something they don't want or can't use.

Or CAN NOT afford even with the measly $7000 carrot Uncle Sam was dangling..... There has to be lots of different reasons the masses never stampeded to all get EVs. Some people still have it stuck in their heads the mileage limits are the ONLY reason people do not want them. NOT.

 

[SC Maintenance]

How often does that happen and what's the sell price in $/MWh? That's got to be relatively inneficient. Note the key word "relatively."

Generators, even the big ones, cost multiples of what grid power costs to produce electricity.

But that really isn't the issue because big tech has the money - the issue is there is a 2 year lead time at least on large diesel generators because big tech has already ordered them all - so its limiting data center production. Not to mention many of the materials needed to build them come only from China, so its limiting there ability to build more data centers - so I hear.