Fed broke financial markets; will stimulate the economy at any sign of trouble ...

Where are you getting the 18T from? I only count ~7T in 2020. About ~4T in money supply and about ~3T in assets.
Monetary plus fiscal.

You never really know. Could be much more - because you don't know what fed swap lines were in play. Which is why the fed need to be regularly audited.

1733791969944.webp



1733792140342.webp
 
My economy would be stimulated if the whole "market" went up in flames. Unless you live off of investments "line going up" does nothing but lower what is left over for you after everyone else grabs their cut.

There is only so long money can be consolidated at the top before it is meaningless.
 
M2 is just liquid money. Cash, checking accounts, etc. - ie cash and cash equivalents. Its sort of a useless measure given today's world of instant credit, but Steve Hanke keeps trying anyway.

You want to look at debt. Debt is just another form of money - but locked up. You also have to measure as a percentage of GDP (or you can adjust for inflation - either works), but you need to take the inflation piece out of it.

View attachment 253484

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GDD/2024 Global Debt Monitor.pdf
Just doing some quick math here according to the information provided in the IMF link, it looks like the US debt only changed ~2T between 2019 and 2020. So not enough to get to 18T if I'm doing my math right.

2019 GDP was 21.5T with a GDP to debt ratio of 1.534. 2019 debt ~33T
2020 GDP was 21.3T with a GDP to debt ratio of 1.648. 2020 debt ~35T
 
I've always thought that a useful concept is Dollars-in-circulation per capita, but I don't ever see anyone mentioning it. The "capita" could be actual people, or maybe just adults, and would have to include everyone, including undocumented / illegals, etc.

To the extent that it goes up over time - doesn't that give a better indication of the drivers of price or wage inflation?
 
Just doing some quick math here according to the information provided in the IMF link, it looks like the US debt only changed ~2T between 2019 and 2020. So not enough to get to 18T if I'm doing my math right.

2019 GDP was 21.5T with a GDP to debt ratio of 1.534. 2019 debt ~33T
2020 GDP was 21.3T with a GDP to debt ratio of 1.648. 2020 debt ~35T
Fed balance sheet doesn't count as debt. The debt they buy still exists, its just on their balance sheet now, and the debt is replaced in the real economy with dollars they conjure out of thin air. It offsets - its just assets and liabilities in a spreadsheet - so technically no increase. They give it a cool names like "quantitative easing", and "liquidity". Cool huh?

Fed opens swap lines are even more convoluted because they involve two (or more) central banks playing similar offsetting games.

Haven't even gotten to banks and non banks.

Trust me, this is way over my head on the exact plumbing. My guess is there are maybe 100 people on earth that really have a clue on how the whole thing works, and most work at the fed. They produced massive amounts of liquidity in 2020. Within a couple weeks we went from the world is ending to lets get the party started - on a global scale. It wasn't a couple trillion.
 
England lost its status as “a reserve currency “ to us slowly over time until they became completely irrelevant in the 70’s which many Britains remember as hard times with many not even able to afford heat. As their currency became more reliable again it once more is a currency of interest making lives easier in that region.

Before England
France had a reserve currency with much of the world, their influence was slowly lost ending in war upheaval and pestilence.

Both of the above survived, nobody keeps reserve status forever, so the nightmare scenario plays out relatively often, play stupid games win stupid prizes.

You would think humanity would become more intelligent over hundreds of years but the cycles of wars, financial collapse, democratic collapse and housing formation follow moderately long but predictable cycles.
At the end of the day we are animals that follow predictable build bust patterns every 80 years or so.
It did take 2 world wars (causing the collapse of the British Empire) to remove England from having the world’s reserve currency. If it takes WW3 to remove the US$, there won’t be much world left to make a difference…
 
Fed balance sheet doesn't count as debt. The debt they buy still exists, its just on their balance sheet now, and the debt is replaced in the real economy with dollars they conjure out of thin air. It offsets - its just assets and liabilities in a spreadsheet - so technically no increase. They give it a cool names like "quantitative easing", and "liquidity". Cool huh?

Fed opens swap lines are even more convoluted because they involve two (or more) central banks playing similar offsetting games.

Haven't even gotten to banks and non banks.

Trust me, this is way over my head on the exact plumbing. My guess is there are maybe 100 people on earth that really have a clue on how the whole thing works, and most work at the fed. They produced massive amounts of liquidity in 2020. Within a couple weeks we went from the world is ending to lets get the party started - on a global scale. It wasn't a couple trillion.
The issue is-when this money is created, it gets loaned out & spent-by individuals, corporations, even other countries. There is a massive multiplying effect-and Econ 101 means the law of supply & demand comes on with a vengeance-all those new $ chasing the same amount of goods. I’m actually surprised inflation isn’t worse.
 
Good advice is good advice, no matter who it comes from.
And I’ve e yet to see anyone on BITOG give financial advice and bring it from an authoritative point of view.
Who is giving financial advice on this thread?

In 2008 the banks made bad loans and were about to blow up. The fed underwrote the whole thing using QE.

In 2020 when the pandemic hit and global financial markets began to crash, they did it again, only on a larger scale.

The entire premise of the original post is the next time something happens they will do it yet again, only even bigger. Does anyone really believe they will not? The only questions are when and how much.
 
Not being argumentative. A genuine question as fiat currency evades my comprehension. How does printing money affect anything? Like, where does the money go after they print it?
Banks create credit money out of thin air. Your local community bank does it and so does the Fed. The first users of this credit enjoy the greatest benefit because prices haven't increased to reflect the higher quantity of credit money in the system. Fiat is basically credit used as money and here is an example of how it's created.

Business owner applies for $100k line of credit.
Bank creates the account and transfers $100k into the business checking account. The bank now has a liability of $100k (Bus checking account) and a $100k asset (Bus Line of credit). The business uses these funds to cut your paycheck which is direct deposited into your checking account.. You then spend that credit money as cash or pay bills.

The entire system runs on credit money rather than physical cash.
 
Quantitative easing is a ruse that the wealthy oligarchs use to transfer wealth from the middle class to themselves, plain and simple. They used it in 2008, then again in 2020, and they are going to do it again soon.
So everyone who has a mortgage rate of under 4% is now an oligarch?
 
On the other hand, people don't listen and keep getting poorer.
I keep telling everyone how to make good profit simply investing and waiting, a particular legal but not very known way, nope, they nod and do nothing. One coworker listened to me recently and already made about 60% in tax free profits in last 6 or so weeks.
I made $7 in profits on each dollar invested since 2020 and should about double in next 6 months, just saying.
 
Back
Top Bottom