American manufacturing

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Dear Don,

The average American rarely thinks about manufacturing, and if he or she thinks of it at all, he or she thinks that American manufacturing is dead or dying. They may think that we have transformed into the postindustrial society predicted by John Naisbitt in Megatrends, in which the Untied States was supposed to transform from dirty heavy industry into the clean bright world of services and high technology.



Many may wonder why we should expend any effort to save American manufacturing. What difference would it make to the United States if we lost virtually all of our domestic manufacturing? Is it too late to save American manufacturing? Can American manufacturing be saved or even revived into a new period of growth?



The truth is the so-called postindustrial society was a dream that failed to generate any new net jobs either in manufacturing or services. We've learned that it's even easier to outsource services, such as telemarketing and customer service, computer programming, and software design to India and other offshore countries than it is to outsource manufacturing.



Americans may be surprised to learn that the United States is still the world's number one manufacturer, accounting for 17 % of global manufacturing output, but down from 25 % in 2007 before the Great Recession.



For over sixty years, American manufacturing has dominated the globe. It was responsible for turning the tide for the Allies in World War II and defeating Nazi Germany and Japan. It helped rebuild Germany and Japan after the war and enabled the United States to win the Cold War against the Soviet empire, while meeting the material needs of the American people.



High-paying manufacturing jobs helped spur a robust and growing economy that had little dependence on foreign nations for manufactured goods. American families and communities depended on a strong manufacturing base to improve our quality of life.



Manufacturing is the foundation of the American economy and was responsible for the rise of the middle class in the 20th Century, in which the average daily wage rose from $2.50 per day to $96 per day.



American companies like General Motors, Ford, Boeing, IBM, and Levi Strauss became household names. American manufacturing became synonymous with quality and ingenuity. Now General Motors is recovering from bankruptcy thanks to American taxpayers through a government bailout. IBM sold their computer line to Chinese company Lenovo, and Levi jeans are made in China just like every other brand of jeans.



The U. S. manufacturing sector accounted for $1.7 trillion or 11.2% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010, up from $1.58 trillion in 2009. If this sector were a country, it would be the eighth largest economy in the world. Manufacturing output of the nation's factories in the United States today is at the highest level in history and continues to rise.



The five largest manufacturing industries today are: chemicals, food products, computers and electronic products, transportation (automobiles and aircraft), and fabricated metal products. Automobiles and auto parts dropped from third to fourth between 2002 and 2007, and fabricated metal products slipped from fourth to fifth in the same time period.



Manufacturing is the engine that drives American prosperity. It is central to our economic security and our national security. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke stated on February 28, 2007, "I would say that our economy needs machines and new factories and new buildings and so forth in order for us to have a strong and growing economy."



However, Franklin Vargo, vice president for international economic affairs of the National Association of Manufacturers, said, "If manufacturing production declines in the United States, at some point we will go below critical mass and then the center of innovation will shift outside the country and that will really begin a decline in our living standards." 3



In the 1970's, over 26 % of American workers were in manufacturing, but this number has decreased every year since 1990 until it dropped down to less than 11 % by the end of 2009.



In 1965, American manufacturing accounted for about 28 % of the U. S. Gross Domestic Product, but it dropped to only 9.5 % in 2009. According to Forbes magazine, we've lost 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since 2001, adding up to over 5.5 million jobs by the end of 2010.



Manufacturing ensures that the U. S. has a strong industry base to support its national security objectives. American manufacturers supply the military with the essentials needed to defend our country, including tanks, fighter jets, submarines, and other high-tech equipment.



In a keynote address "Lessons for a Rapidly Changing World" at the CA World 2003, Dr. Henry Kissinger, former U. S. Secretary of State, said "The question really is whether America can remain a great power or a dominant power if it becomes primarily a service economy, and I doubt that. I think that a country has to have a major industrial base in order to play a significant role in the world. "



The reality is that the supply chain of goods upon which our military and defense industry rely is weakening. The U. S. printed circuit board industry has shrunk by 74 % since 2000, and the communication equipment industry has lost 47 % of its jobs. The U. S. machine tool industry consumption fell by 78 % in 2008 and another 60 % in 2009. There is only one steel plant left that can product the high quality steel needed by the U. S. military. Even more serious is that China is now the #1 supplier of components for defense systems.



The five states with the largest manufacturing workforces are: California, Texas, Ohio, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. California's manufacturing workforce of more than 1.5 million is almost the size of the Texas and Illinois manufacturing workforce combined.



Jobs paying $20 per hour that have historically enabled American wage earners to support a middle-class standard of living are leaving the U. S. Only 16 % of today's workers earn the $20 per hour baseline wage, down 60 % since 1979.



Manufacturing wages and benefits are approximately 25 - 50% higher than non-manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing compensation averages more than $65,000, compared to an average of $53,000 in the remainder of the economy.



Another important point is that the decline in the higher manufacturing jobs produces less tax revenue making the Federal budget deficit worse. This becomes serious when you realize that nearly half of federal revenue comes from income taxes on individuals. Decent-paying, entry-level jobs offering a future are replaced by menial, dead-end jobs.



There is a multiplier effect of manufacturing jobs that reflects linkages that run deep in the economy. Manufacturing jobs create three to four supporting jobs, while service jobs create only one to two other jobs. However, steel product manufacturing creates 10.3 indirect jobs, and automotive manufacturing creates 8.6 indirect jobs.



Automation has helped keep American manufacturers not only competitive but the most productive in the world. Manufacturing has long led U. S. industries in productivity growth. Gains in productivity raise a country's standard of living. In the past 20 years, productivity -output per hour -) has more than doubled - actually 2.5 times - that of other economic sectors.



American manufacturers are responsible for more than two-thirds of all private sector R&D, which ultimately benefits other manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities. More than 90 % of new patents derive from the manufacturing sector and the closely integrated engineering and technology-intensive services.



America's manufacturing innovation process leads to investments in equipment and people, to productivity gains, the spreading of beneficial technology to other sectors, and to new and improved products and processes. It is an intricate process that begins with R&D for new goods and improvements in existing products. As products are improved in speed, accuracy, ease of use, and quality, new manufacturing processes are utilized to increase productivity. Education and training of employees is required to reap the benefits of such improvements in manufacturing processes. Substantial R&D is required to keep the ball rolling to ensure more successes than failures. Co-location of R&D and manufacturing is critical because you have to know how to make a product to be able to know how to make it better for the next generation of the product.



Inside the modern U. S. manufacturing facilities, you will see the most productive, highly skilled labor force in the world applying the latest in information, innovation, and technology. Contrary to popular opinion, the industrial age is not over. We are on the edge of incredible advances in manufacturing - nanotechnology, lasers, biotechnology, biomimicry, rapid prototyping, and electro forming.



In summary, manufacturing is the foundation of the U. S. national economy and the foundation of the country's large middle class. Losing the critical mass of the manufacturing base would result in larger state and federal budget deficits and a decline in U. S. living standards. This, in turn, would result in the loss of a large portion of our middle class, which depends on manufacturing jobs. America's national defense would be in danger, and it would be difficult, if not impossible to maintain the country's position as the world's super power.



The next article will look at what trends are occurring now and how various choices that we could make as a nation, company, and/or individual will affect the future of American manufacturing.



Thank you for taking the time to read this article. I know you are probably as busy as I am. If you found it informative, please, forward it to people you know.



Sincerely,



Michele Nash-Hoff
President
ElectroFab Sales
Author, Can American Manufacturing be Saved? Why we should and how we can
Available at www.savingusmanufacturing.com or www.amazon.com
 
i work at a factory and i always try to buy goods made here or at least canada/mexico..china is a power now cuz of mfg
 
Yep, you gotta make stuff.

"postindustrial society predicted by John Naisbitt in Megatrends" while I haven't read this, I immediately thought of a "George Jetson" type world, that didn't materialize either...

The big companies use to have big (and sometimes off their topic) R&D. A lot of good things came out of that. Places like Bell Labs were often the engines of innovation, now gone...
 
Quote:
Jobs paying $20 per hour that have historically enabled American wage earners to support a middle-class standard of living are leaving the U. S. Only 16 % of today's workers earn the $20 per hour baseline wage, down 60 % since 1979.


That 16% figure seems kind of on the low end, that seems like an error. I agree that manufacturing in the USA is on the decline and that work now goes to the rock bottom lowest bidder in another country.
 
Yes, your 'free trade/open markets/global economy' in all of it's full glory and execution.
mad.gif


I guess U.S. citizens will realize it once it's too late, and even the yuppies, Wall Streeters, and everyone else loses their jobs with 90%+ unemployment.

Are principles really worth THIS??!!
 
Originally Posted By: oilboy123

Americans may be surprised to learn that the United States is still the world's number one manufacturer, accounting for 17 % of global manufacturing output, but down from 25 % in 2007 before the Great Recession.


What about the jobs?
These stats might not be proportional to the percentage of jobs lost in manufacturing. Manufacturing that is labor intensive is probably being outsourced at a faster rate than more automated manufacturing.
 
That was a good read that provides a lot of food for thought. The author makes many of the same points that served as a basis for a 4th year political economy seminar I took over a decade ago in my undergrad days. In that course we examined the trend over the last few generations from a strong manufacturing base combined with a healthy middle class which held the bulk of our wealth and prosperity, to the shift in the rapidly growing service sector, at the expense of manufacturing.

The 'service sector' is a very broad one that includes everything from doctors and lawyers on the upper pay range, to home care workers, waiters and bartenders, etc on the lower pay range. Unfortunately, its the lower paying jobs that dominate the service sector. These jobs also typically lack the traditional full-time hours, benefits, and job security found in their manufacturing counterparts. Various authors have coined the term McJobs to describe the modern day service sector, and I find that an apt title.

At any rate, this trend is well underway and there are no meaningful indicators that it will be reversed. In fact, there is every reason to believe it'll continue until the manufacturing sector is reduced to almost nothing. Many reasons for this, though the biggest one is that as long as its cheaper and feasible to offshore manufacturing, corporations will do so. And, barring some structural barrier created to stop the bleed, its not going to slow or stop.

By 2020 China is projected to be the #1 economy in the world, eclipsing the US and EU (which is currently neck and neck with the US). That they have the manufacturing base we once enjoyed, and will have an even greater piece of it by then, is no coincidence.

-Spyder
 
I wonder if the cost of fuel will be a "wildcard". Once fuel costs predominate in the cost of manufacturing something, it could put lower cost labor at less of an advantage. The current model of where to manufacture something also seems to depend on a relatively low cost to transport the goods to the consumer.
 
dailydriver,

Was your remark 'free trade/open markets/global economy' in all of it's full glory and execution directed towards me ?
21.gif


It would be stupid, dumb and foolish not to accept the fact that manufacturing in the USA is dying. I hate seeing jobs lost here but there are many reasons for it. Take some time and read Daily Job Cuts . com to see the amount of jobs being lost in manufacturing. All this Pro USA talk is great but no need to ignore whats really happening in our country.
 
Originally Posted By: Rick in PA
I wonder if the cost of fuel will be a "wildcard". Once fuel costs predominate in the cost of manufacturing something, it could put lower cost labor at less of an advantage. The current model of where to manufacture something also seems to depend on a relatively low cost to transport the goods to the consumer.


Nope, as a 23 year veteran of the power industry, where the single biggest expense is fuel, and labour a tiny fraction, every major drive has been to reduce staff...it's the easy one.
 
I remember reading my Grandad's mech Illustrated and Pop Sci mags from the 60s and early 70s (alas they've been lost, they were awesome).

They always had articles about how much free time people would have in the future due to the marvels of technology...on face value it looked OK.

Switch to the future, and my workmates are shouldering the burden and responsibilities that were carried by 2-3 people 15 years ago...they get free time, but it's mostly recuperation for the next week of battle.

Know plenty of people with plenty of free time, who can only scrape up 20 hours a week of casual employment...and they aren't buying services with it.

We've outsmarted ourselves.
 
Anything that can be outsourced, will be outsourced. Service sector is not immune from it. In another generation, even some of the medical services will be outsourced. Currently medical transcribing and image evaluations (e.g. x-ray reading) is done overseas. Once there is enough technology, some of the procedures will be done remotely. "Patient outsourcing" or medical tourism will become much more prevalent.

The only good paying job in this country would be in prison and police industry :-(

- Vikas
 
On the topic of 'American manufacturing', here's a quote you don't expect hear these days:

"Our U.S. presence is, and always will be, the foundation of our global enterprise. We are very confident in the future of U.S. manufacturing and proud to have more U.S. manufacturing employees than all of our major competitors combined."

- Whirlpool CEO Jeff Fettig

Source
 
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Anything that can be outsourced, will be outsourced. Service sector is not immune from it. In another generation, even some of the medical services will be outsourced. Currently medical transcribing and image evaluations (e.g. x-ray reading) is done overseas. Once there is enough technology, some of the procedures will be done remotely. "Patient outsourcing" or medical tourism will become much more prevalent.

The only good paying job in this country would be in prison and police industry :-(

- Vikas


Medical Tourism is already here in a BIG way, India (and others) is Ramping up to be a major destination for this.

http://www.medical-tourism-india.com/
 
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^ That's part of the service sector too. They've taken their lead from the manufacturing sector and are offshoring whatever they can. There are some aspects that simply cannot be offshored and will always remain here. Although they've taken it to a level in cost cutting where even the lowest paying, least desirable service sector jobs are being moved elsewhere.

I recall a few years ago reading about a fast food chain that had moved the drive through ordering to another state because minimum wage was cheaper there and it allowed them to cut a few jobs and save some money. You place your order and the guy taking it and entering it is another state, and you pull up to the window to pick it up none the wiser. That to me was pretty indicative of how far companies will go to slash any costs they can, no matter how seemingly trivial.

As another poster has said, the Jetsons type society we grew up expecting to see - and which was echoed in more serious media, such as Popular Science and Popular Mechanics - hasn't exactly turned out the way in that technological advancement has led us to expect. Instead of making life easier for the masses, its become a tool to erode the more prosperous and secure way of life that only a faint echo remains of.

Or as Shannow succinctly put it: we've outsmarted ourselves.

-Spyder
 
Currently, some of the insurance carriers are subtly encouraging their patents towards medical tourism. I suspect within this decade, all insurance companies will be insisting on this form of patient outsourcing. Almost all elective surgeries will be pushed out of this country unless the patient pays the differential out of his own pocket similar to generic/branded concept.

- Vikas
 
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Currently, some of the insurance carriers are subtly encouraging their patents towards medical tourism. I suspect within this decade, all insurance companies will be insisting on this form of patient outsourcing. Almost all elective surgeries will be pushed out of this country unless the patient pays the differential out of his own pocket similar to generic/branded concept.

- Vikas


With the rapid increase in medical costs, I really don't see any alternative. I could definitely see a future where most medical care is handled remotely via video feed, prescriptions are mail ordered from abroad, and the only direct local interaction is with technicians who set up equipment.

I just had a physical which cost around $400. I really don't see why something like this couldn't have been done remotely and the only local interaction with a medical tech who takes vitals and draws blood. The lab work could have been overnighted to India and an Indian doctor via Skype could have taken my history. I would do it in a heartbeat if it meant lower medical bills and lower insurance costs.
 
Originally Posted By: oilboy123
Thought this was interesting

Dear Don,
... IBM sold their computer line to Chinese company Lenovo, and Levi jeans are made in China just like every other brand of jeans.



Of course, there are several brands of jeans that are still made here. I'm surprised to see this sort of misinformation & negativism in this article. Repeating stuff like this, which he just complained about in the 1st paragraph, is frustrating.
 
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