EV's dime a dozen? I think everyone and his brother will be making them.

[CKN]

I think automakers also see jumping to making EVs as a way to get the ever increasing CAFE goals off their back. Instead of putting more research and money into squeaking out more MPG, they would rather jump on the hot EV selling bandwagon.

Anyone know if CAFE allows a manufacture to roll their EVs in to their feet overall CAFE calculations?

Or will CAFE someday come up with an EV efficiency standard that it must get x miles per kWh (or MPG equivalent) in order to not be fined/tax?

The U.S. Department of Transportation announced new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards April 1 that call for an industrywide fleet average of about 49 miles per gallon by the 2026 model year.

That's a big jump for the auto industry to make — 8 percent higher in the 2024 and 2025 model years and 10 percent by 2026 — but don't expect to hear automakers complain. After all, a federal push toward more efficient vehicles should even the playing field for automakers making billions of dollars of investments to build electric and hybrid cars and trucks. So those companies that are spending money on battery systems and electric motor components should see a return on their investment.

 

[ZeeOSix]

The U.S. Department of Transportation announced new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards April 1 that call for an industrywide fleet average of about 49 miles per gallon by the 2026 model year.

That's a big jump for the auto industry to make — 8 percent higher in the 2024 and 2025 model years and 10 percent by 2026 — but don't expect to hear automakers complain. After all, a federal push toward more efficient vehicles should even the playing field for automakers making billions of dollars of investments to build electric and hybrid cars and trucks. So those companies that are spending money on battery systems and electric motor components should see a return on their investment.

"NHTSA finalizes stricter fuel economy standards for light vehicles"

How does the NHTSA have a say in what the fuel economy targets should be? Can't read the article, not a member of "Plastic News".

 

[PandaBear]

Depends. I would say as oil becomes harder and harder to drill for cheap and gasoline engine becomes harder and harder to made more efficient yet still meet the emission requirement (Nox and PM), we will gradually transition to plug in hybrid then eventually EV. People used to say the same thing with early gasoline vehicles and it cost way more than horses.

For one oil is not a locally sourced energy in many part of the world, and electricity can be sourced in many ways and often local.

I do think a lot of the driving we do today will go away. People would probably work more from home and nearby smaller offices than stuck in traffic to go to a central office. Things get delivered instead of "drive to a store to buy something and then drive back". Adding a few more stops on a FedEx truck is probably more efficient than dedicated shopping trip 10 miles each way.

 

[PandaBear]

No, the electricity the power plant produces and sends to your home to charge the EV is at best 50% efficient by the time it gets to your house, then based on your statement, loses another 20% once used in the EV.
My post is based as I understand it from someone in these forums who is the industry. I see some other posts in here as well.

Its wrong to call Electric cars efficient and actually post numbers on that, that is ridiculous as electric cars do not produce their own power, electric cars get their power from another source. So you need to calculate in the efficiency of that source which is the power plant supplying the power to the EV, at best as I understand it, the power produced and sent to you home to charge your EV is 50% efficient and that is AT BEST>

Also to say ICE will go away in our lifetimes is not going to happen, a significant public will keep demanding them until a solution is found for the outdated technology of charging batteries. Once again, H2 is one solution, the EV would produce its own power no polltion except water vapor, no need for obsolete battery power.
One other possibly is for solid state batteries that can charge as fast as a gas pumps pumps gas if that ever comes to be.

ICE car is at best 35-40% on a Prius, at worst 20% with today's tech on a sports car, that hasn't factor in the lost in the refinery and the gas tanker going to the gas station.

Neither are perfect, but assuming you have big enough of a grid and variable source like solar or wind, with variable pricing they need a place to be stored or lost / wasted, that can go into a battery or pump storage (limited). Battery round trip is wasteful but if you are going to charge it into an EV that must be on a battery anyways, why not.

Main point though, is you are saving the oil that you may be in finite supply of, or has to transport all the way from the other side of earth, or from an enemy at war, that you do not need with local coal or nuke plant. EV may not make sense in Texas, but it makes perfect sense in Europe powered by nuke, or China, or Singapore, or Hawaii.

 

[PandaBear]

We will have teleportation in a 100 years.

We do in small scale, electrons only. Everytime you use a smart phone or digital camera you are using it (flash memory).

 

[Spyderman24_7]

The BITOGers can kick and scream and come up with objections but the Electrics are coming....

No kicking and screaming from me, just laughing at all the B.S. hype and claims. Yes sure electric will improve more in time, but FAR from mainstream at this point in terms of overall efficiency and safety. Also, be sure to sell this idea to those in parts of the country dealing with power outages caused by massive electric consumption at this moment. Losing food, uncomfortable living conditions, etc. Imagine it's been mentioned many times over, but maybe the ass backward thinking manufacturers should focus more on power grid reality instead of just cranking out their versions of the next best thing. This topic is getting a bit old/boring at this point...

 

[joekingcorvette]

Lots of good information here. As far as EV's being a dime a dozen in the future? It's anyones guess.

 

[SHOZ]

I read yesterday the EU is getting ready to brand lithium compounds as toxic chemicals.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsev...roding-its-energy-security-and-climate-goals/

 

[alarmguy]

EVs on the road in the USA = 2 million

ICE vehicles on the road in USA = 278 million

Don’t think for one minute ICE is going away for the next 20 years and don’t think for a minute EVs will be anything like the current models as far as how they use, produce or store energy. Current technology in EVs will be obsolete in 15 years or less.

 

[alarmguy]

I read yesterday the EU is getting ready to brand lithium compounds as toxic chemicals.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsev...roding-its-energy-security-and-climate-goals/

Excellent point I was going to post, we live in a country where certain states or localities ban plastic bags yet ok with car and trucks loads of done of the most toxic materials on the planet?
It’s no secret and I could be 100% wrong but I am still going out a limb here and saying I bet big oil is already counting on them have a way of implementing fuel cells for EVs instead of batteries.
Im sure cost is a factor right now but ..,

 

[vwmaniaman]

The EV may be efficient but when you count the power losses from transformers and long lines from power plants that number drops off. You have to think about all the inefficiencies. Creature comforts like heat and AC also use up portions of that efficiency. Also in an accident when the plates in the batteries thump together happens that may cause fires that you just can't put out. It has taken over a hundred years of engineering to make ICE cars safer. How long will it take for EV's.

 

[Cujet]

59 to 61% of grid power makes it to the wheels on EV's. NOT accounting for regenerative braking, which hybrids can also do.

 

[alarmguy]

I guess all this efficiency talk bothers me as all speculation, impossible except for the owner to know if an EV with all its limitations is for them.
I mean splitting hairs on what is efficient or not, tell me the cost for each size vehicle available from purchase price to operation.
Operation costs for EVs are dependent on your electric rates and impossible to compare and convenience or inconvenience is a personal decision.

I could care less about the environment simply because EV‘s will overtime compromise up to 30% of the market possibly more as a second car and don’t think those batteries are good for the earth.

Air quality in the USA is so improved that a report just released by Noaa states BRACE yourself for this!!!

There are and will be more frequent hurricanes for the USA as ocean temperatures are warming and air temperatures in our atmosphere are warming because more sunlight is making it through the atmosphere heating the ocean as air pollution particulates are all way down from decades past, as much as 50% lower then 1980.

Anyway other than science I don’t understand why so crazy about efficiency. And on top of everything else comparing a vehicle that makes its own power versus a vehicle that stores power from another source I mean it’s like night and day difference

 

[ZeeOSix]

There are and will be more frequent hurricanes for the USA as ocean temperatures are warming and air temperatures in our atmosphere are warming because more sunlight is making it through the atmosphere heating the ocean as air pollution particulates are all way down from decades past, as much as 50% lower then 1980.

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature

https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

 

[PimTac]

Eh. My guess? Making an ICE is probably child's play compared against designing a car to crump properly in the event of a crash, crash avoidance, vehicle stability and figuring out how many cup holders to have.

Without a doubt I do see all the players switching to EV, but I just don't see more upstarts coming into the field. Its a really high bar to pass, to raise the capital to make cars that can be sold here in NA.

They don’t have to make the entire car, just parts of it. Look at Mitsubishi. How many engines did they supply to Chrysler in the minivan heydays? Millions.

The Chinese will get in somehow. There are several companies leading the way. Their automobile market is the largest in the world. While we wait for the Big 2 to figure out what’s happening companies like BYD will grab a foothold.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The Chinese will get in somehow. There are several companies leading the way. Their automobile market is the largest in the world. While we wait for the Big 2 to figure out what’s happening companies like BYD will grab a foothold.

Spot on. I, for one, am happy to see America, through Tesla and its wacky CEO, leading the world for once.
Supporting their efforts is a key reason I am an early adopter. I put my money where my mouth was and have zero regrets.
Well, maybe I shoulda taken that 60 large and bought stock back in Dec 2018...

 

[alarmguy]

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature

https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

Nice post, I thought someone would challenge me on my post. But no one did. Yeah, here is NOAA pointing out effects on climate change, ocean warming due to the air being 50% cleaner now, than 40 years ago.

Here is the story, just out; (click below)

Reducing human-caused air pollution in North America & Europe brings surprise result: more hurricanes

__

 

[ZeeOSix]

Nice post, I thought someone would challenge me on my post. But no one did. Yeah, here is NOAA pointing out effects on climate change, ocean warming due to the air being 50% cleaner now, than 40 years ago.

Here is the story, just out; (click below)

Reducing human-caused air pollution in North America & Europe brings surprise result: more hurricanes

Depends on what you mean by "cleaner air". It seems to more a funxtion of greenhouse gases.

Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/oceans

"As greenhouse gases trap more energy from the sun, the oceans are absorbing more heat, resulting in an increase in sea surface temperatures and rising sea level. Changes in ocean temperatures and currents brought about by climate change will lead to alterations in climate patterns around the world."

 

[Kiwi_ME]

Exactly ... be careful to understand the difference between particulate pollution effects which block some earthbound heat from sunlight, as opposed to increasing CO2 emission effects that increase the Earth's thermal insulation to outbound infrared heat. It's the balance of those that determines our global average temperature and the climactic results. The prior effect is often termed 'global cooling' but it only provides a limited offset against global warming. Particulates drop to the ground after a few days or weeks but every molecule of CO2 added is essentially forever in human lifetimes.
We can debate the interesting distraction of EVs until we are black and blue but at best they will only help us a small amount in the big picture.

 

[M56959]

Please refer to Standard of Conduct.

Unfortunately by invoking climate change. This topic ends here.