CNN Article on Motor Oil Shortage

I think your statement is highly generalizable.
The statement is actually pretty clear.

The question one might ask, is what is the timing of the publication of the article? Any stock options purchased prior to the release of the article by the author, editors, or publisher?

I can’t remember the last time I read an article that was impartial, or well researched.

Supplementally- it is amazing that people that work in Washington DC continue to outperform Warren Buffet when it comes to buying equities, calls, and puts. Our nation is deep in debt, deficits, and hasn’t passed a budget in two decades. Yet these same people are masters at picking stocks. Fascinating……
 
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They didn't cover on shortages of fertilizer and potential food shortages? That would be a real story.
When we were kids nearly every family I knew had a garden, canned the fresh produce, had some fruit trees, and further canned farm products in the fall.

Not seeing this much anymore. Seems family gardens have been replaced by smartphones.

Such I digress.
 
I was wondering how this would impact the recycled oil market.

Their input costs have changed little compared to traditional refining. Where crude costs have gone up a ton.

UMO is generally tied to natural gas. So just their logistics costs have gone up.

SK, GFL, HCC, VTX and others…. It’s a good time to be a re-refiner. That being said. They were having a rough few years before.
 
"Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly, and some industry executives are warning of imminent shortages caused by the war with Iran.

Damage to key facilities in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a perfect storm in this tiny but critical corner of the oil market.

The risk is that some of the most popular kinds of motor oil will be in very short supply, forcing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or rely on suboptimal lubricants."


Looks like the major impact will be on Group III based 0W-X oils, but Group II based 5W-X oils can substitute just fine, if there is enough Group II to go around. I can't imaging empty shelves like during Covid, and with emergency provisional licensing from the API the effect is more likely to be just confusion among consumers, especially where warranties are involved, than any damage to engines from thicker oils. In any case there needs to be some fast communication from auto builders to consumers before confusion leads to hoarding, which will just compound the situation.

Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage
This is sensationalism at its best. Iran primarily supplies China,Syria, Venezuela and the UAE. SURE it's a "world commodity " but the USA just needs to increase production. Didn't they find a huge vast untapped oil reserve in the northern USA a few years back?
 
No worries. You just might see some new suppliers. Mods, I used some screen shots to show a new source of supply. :oops:

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Sinopec has been available for years, but mostly 55 gallon drums aimed at trucking industry, not home DIY.
Plus, it isn't that the Iranian oil that is being tied up is hurting the West, the other oil producers aren't shipping through the straight either.
 
This is sensationalism at its best. Iran primarily supplies China,Syria, Venezuela and the UAE. SURE it's a "world commodity " but the USA just needs to increase production. Didn't they find a huge vast untapped oil reserve in the northern USA a few years back?
As far as I'am aware (and I do not claim to be an expert on this subject). U.S. oil production is falling and has been down from ~Nov. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/weekly-crude-oil-production
 
This is sensationalism at its best. Iran primarily supplies China,Syria, Venezuela and the UAE. SURE it's a "world commodity " but the USA just needs to increase production. Didn't they find a huge vast untapped oil reserve in the northern USA a few years back?
We have lots but the additional is expensive to produce.

No one will start producing more until the long end of the futures curve climbs. CME futures show crude at $82 in 6 months, 73 in 18 months. It takes minimum a year to move the needle, so no one has actually even started AFAIK.

Everyone expects this to be over shortly because someone keeps saying it will be over shortly.
 
The average price for crude oil in the first quarter was about $80 per bbl including hedging. The price in the 2nd quarter will be way more but only as all the futures contracts expire. I’ll be there will still be hedging losses reported at the end of June.
 
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