CNN Article on Motor Oil Shortage

[Zee09]

My struggle now is determining how long my current supply will last... or how long I should make it last.

Go buy a few blow out jugs and take one worry off your mind.

 

[Owen Lucas]

I'll stock up just to be safe, I'll get 2 cases instead of 1 of my typical pre-order Honda 0w20. Should last me 2 years.

 

[CleanSump]

This isn't like toilet paper during lockdown. A year from now we'll have everything back except maybe GTL. Of course, the prices will be higher, but we'll be able to get even German builder's spec oils. Maybe some of us will choose shorter OCIs based on not being confident in the base.

 

[Jimmy_Russells]

I find it hard to believe in four to six months you won't be able to walk into a store and be able to buy something to do an oil change with. So you may need to use a different brand or use 5w20 instead of 0w20, no big deal. Seems people need to constantly try to find things to worry about.

 

[Hall]

With high gas prices, Americans are likely to drive less & need less oil changes. Or not, changing habits is difficult.

The majority of people aren't going to change their driving habits - most can't. We were talking about vacation plans at work and someone mentioned flying vs driving and it being cheaper. I laughed.... Even flying Allegient to FL, best case I'd pay $200+ per person round trip x 3 or 4 people. Then we'd be paying for a rental which would have to be a large SUV or minivan (our oldest and his fiance will likely come, though they'd pay for their own flights) or Uber/Lyft to get around. My math says it would cost us $250 or so in gas to drive round-trip. I can add in stopping for food, even a hotel if we don't drive all the way in one day, and still come out much cheaper !

 

[4wd]

well, I think that what some want to insinuate is a panic - is mostly bumping a one year supply to two …
Our vehicles do 7k-10k a year - easy to do …

I had far more after the AZ blowouts …

 

[RallyXaDSM]

I find it hard to believe in four to six months you won't be able to walk into a store and be able to buy something to do an oil change with. So you may need to use a different brand or use 5w20 instead of 0w20, no big deal. Seems people need to constantly try to find things to worry about.

Will you probably be able to buy something in 6 months? Sure. It will likely cost notably more than you'd pay for it now too, but it will be there.

However, will it be of the same overall quality as the oil you can buy now? That is what I'm more concerned about.

 

[melk]

I don’t recall TP factories being bombed during covid

 

[Jimmy_Russells]

I don’t recall TP factories being bombed during covid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kimberly-Clark_distribution_center_fire

 

[kschachn]

Will you probably be able to buy something in 6 months? Sure. It will likely cost notably more than you'd pay for it now too, but it will be there.

However, will it be of the same overall quality as the oil you can buy now? That is what I'm more concerned about.

I think that if you care to look there will always be oils available with some sort of significant manufacturer approval such as VW 502 00 (mid-SAPS) or 504 00 (lower SAPS). One of those would be appropriate for the vast majority of vehicles.

 

[OS4A]

I have so much oil if it gets bad, I'm flipping it....
Will give some away for those in need.

Here here

 

[OS4A]

CNN for oil stuff is like Ms. magazine for chainsaw evaluations.

Now thats funny

 

[doitmyself]

CNN for oil stuff is like Ms. magazine for chainsaw evaluations.

If you weren't retired, that type of profiling would earn you a quick trip to HR sensitivity training!

 

[BHopkins]

I find it hard to believe in four to six months you won't be able to walk into a store and be able to buy something to do an oil change with. So you may need to use a different brand or use 5w20 instead of 0w20, no big deal. Seems people need to constantly try to find things to worry about.

I suspect you are spot on. This will have little to no impact to the 3/4 of drivers that go to the lube shop or dealership for oil changes. The shop will use whatever alternative has been recommended. Some may choose to extend an oil change interval, while they wait for the oil they prefer. But something will be available.

For those of us that do our own oil changes, there may be compromises, of having to get a second, or even third choice of motor oil. So it is smart to stock up now, particularly if you are the kind of person that is a stickler for the details. Like me.

For the most part, I have a couple oil changes on the shelf, but I will probably pick up oil for a couple changes for one car and ATF fluid for another.

 

[OS4A]

With high gas prices, Americans are likely to drive less & need less oil changes. Or not, changing habits is difficult.

That'll upend the "...or 6 months" implications in the warranty manual.

This is becoming a classic case of "between a rock and a hard place" Good news is all the manufactures know for a fact that a range of oil viscosities will work just fine....and their engines will not implode...and they know with the vast improvement in oil technology...time is not as much as issue as they make it out to be.

Its a billion dollar industry shaped to steer folks to unnecessary oil changes and filter changes...waste of time, money and resources. Commonly known as the aftermarket which is where all the real money is made. I won't even mention the "while you are here" cabin air filter replacement issue as service reps rush breathlessly into the waiting room to inform the folks of the need to replace it NOW!

Of course it depends on usage and where you live and driving habits yadadayadadayadada...but for a vast majority of mom n pop sedans and minivans a longer OCI will prove to be a non-issue.

 

[Pablo]

Except, it’s not just CNN with this information.

Well OK here: https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/threads/april-lubricants-industry-market-update.406554/

Except, it’s not just CNN with this information.

Exactly.

 

[CleanSump]

I don’t recall TP factories being bombed during covid

Were you asleep? There was a national shortage that was being reported every day in the media and people were flipping out and any that came into stores was gone in 5 minutes. There was a shortage of sterilization alcohols too.

 

[Pablo]

Were you asleep? There was a national shortage that was being reported every day in the media and people were flipping out and any that came into stores was gone in 5 minutes. There was a shortage of sterilization alcohols too.

Hoarding.

I mean you only need a single bedroom full of .22LR, not three.

 

[SC Maintenance]

producers temporarily relying more on Group II base oil to make motor oil.

Oh the horror.

Xterra has 420K miles on mostly group II. I would run it without concern. Shorten your OCI a bit if you like.

 

[CleanSump]

Hoarding.

I mean you only need a single bedroom full of .22LR, not three.

Oh yeah. I forgot about ammo and primer panics because we have those every four years. Then there was the Ukraine nitrocellulose panic. Funny, despite what the media said, I never ran out of toilet paper, 22 LR, or reloading components and I don't hoard.