CNN Article on Motor Oil Shortage

[Tom NJ]

"Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly, and some industry executives are warning of imminent shortages caused by the war with Iran.

Damage to key facilities in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a perfect storm in this tiny but critical corner of the oil market.

The risk is that some of the most popular kinds of motor oil will be in very short supply, forcing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or rely on suboptimal lubricants."

Looks like the major impact will be on Group III based 0W-X oils, but Group II based 5W-X oils can substitute just fine, if there is enough Group II to go around. I can't imaging empty shelves like during Covid, and with emergency provisional licensing from the API the effect is more likely to be just confusion among consumers, especially where warranties are involved, than any damage to engines from thicker oils. In any case there needs to be some fast communication from auto builders to consumers before confusion leads to hoarding, which will just compound the situation.

Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage

 

[buster]

Valvoline — which operates 2,400 retail oil change service centers — said in a statement that it has not significantly raised prices and has “adequate supply to serve our customers today and for the foreseeable future.”

Hamilton noted that API, which helps set standards for engine oil specifications, has already invoked emergency provisional licensing to give companies flexibility to pivot to alternative base oil supplies not impacted by the war.

Other band-aids include changing the recommendations from automakers on how frequently they recommend vehicle owners get oil changes, and producers temporarily relying more on Group II base oil to make motor oil.

Of course, there are costs to those stopgap solutions, including potentially damaging or compromising the long-term viability of engines.

“It will be ugly to see how this is done,” Glenn said. “But I think they will find a solution. Quitting is not an option. We’ll find a way to keep America moving.”

 

[nwjones18]

Better stock up on sub $3/qt Quaker State Synthetic while you can...

https://www.amazon.com/Quaker-State-Synthetic-10W-30-5-Quart/dp/B00RRI7HI6/ref=ast_sto_dp_puis

https://www.amazon.com/Quaker-State-Synthetic-5W-20-5-Quart/dp/B00RRI5D1Y/ref=ast_sto_dp_puis

 

[melk]

Glad I recently changed diff fluid and ATF in everything that needs it. Will continue to buy up 5qt jugs and filters.

 

[buster]

I have enough oil for 4 more changes or 20k miles. Had ATF flushed 2 weeks ago. May need to grab diff fluid otherwise I'm set.

 

[Hirev]

API, which helps set standards for engine oil specifications, has already invoked emergency provisional licensing to give companies flexibility

Not sure how to take that statement. Does mean API is lowering their standards?

 

[bdc101]

It's like BITOG's version of the COVID toilet paper hoarding crisis

https://tenor.com/view/starship-troopers-gif-18102989

 

[buster]

Not sure how to take that statement. Does mean API is lowering their standards?

In an environment like this I'd expect a lot of variation, chaos, flexibility and creativity going on.


"One option for the industry to proactively manage demand, according to Glenn, is that automakers will temporarily authorize the use of slightly higher viscosity motor oil that require much less Group III base oil.

Other band-aids include changing the recommendations from automakers on how frequently they recommend vehicle owners get oil changes, and producers temporarily relying more on Group II base oil to make motor oil.

Of course, there are costs to those stopgap solutions, including potentially damaging or compromising the long-term viability of engines."

 

[Zee09]

I have so much oil if it gets bad, I'm flipping it....
Will give some away for those in need.

 

[BobsArmory]

Interesting times

 

[4wd]

In an environment like this I'd expect a lot of variation, chaos and creativity going on. Some will also likely try to take advantage.


"One option for the industry to proactively manage demand, according to Glenn, is that automakers will temporarily authorize the use of slightly higher viscosity motor oil that require much less Group III base oil.

Other band-aids include changing the recommendations from automakers on how frequently they recommend vehicle owners get oil changes, and producers temporarily relying more on Group II base oil to make motor oil.

Of course, there are costs to those stopgap solutions, including potentially damaging or compromising the long-term viability of engines."

why I started to “freeze time” in a bottle several weeks ago …
(Buy several before they got changed) …
In good shape for a year or two …

 

[Pablo]

CNN for oil stuff is like Ms. magazine for chainsaw evaluations.

 

[jghall00]

I bought enough to get me through the end of the year. It feels like I'm overreacting and worrying unnecessarily, but I'd rather have it and not need it.

 

[UGASpike]

My struggle now is determining how long my current supply will last... or how long I should make it last.

 

[Under_Pressure]

Regarding filters, I would assume that if anything we will see a glut of oil filters along with this? No reason for there to be production impacts there, and if prices or availability of oil push people to extend oil changes as long as possible, there should be a corresponding decrease in demand for oil filters.

 

[Jerrysends]

With high gas prices, Americans are likely to drive less & need less oil changes. Or not, changing habits is difficult.

 

[Kestas]

I'm still working with the stash of Valvoline synthetic I bought 6 years ago for <$2/qt.
I'm sure many of us have a stash to see us through this bubble.
nwjones18 links to Amazon <$3/qt is a good deal.

 

[loneryder]

"Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly, and some industry executives are warning of imminent shortages caused by the war with Iran.

Damage to key facilities in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a perfect storm in this tiny but critical corner of the oil market.

The risk is that some of the most popular kinds of motor oil will be in very short supply, forcing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or rely on suboptimal lubricants."

Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage

Base oils.

 

[SShooterZ]

CNN for oil stuff is like Ms. magazine for chainsaw evaluations.

Except, it’s not just CNN with this information.

 

[CleanSump]

I think with HPL in all but one car we're set until annual change in November. We won't hit major miles before then.
SD's Honda Accord may need it before then. I'll just drop in and get the $4 Quaker State to hang onto 'cause that Honda doesn't need top ups and will run on any xW-20 or xW-30 you put in it.
It's not like a typical DD is going to spin bearings or throw rods with one 5k OCI of vanilla API oil. Even the MB and BMWs will handle it fine.