CIA technology 50 years ahead of current technology

[Onetor]

Several years ago, a friend who is a distinguished Professor told me that the Central Intelligence Agency's technology is fifty years ahead of current tech. What are your thoughts?

 

[Imp4]

I think you need to define technological progress over time to make this any kind of intelligent conversation. The problem here is that we don't know what's going to be invented 5 or 10 years out. So it's impossible to say that anyone is XX years ahead. Anything else is speculation at best and most likely hogwash.

 

[walterjay]

Maybe 8-10 years. Fifty years from now we will be beaming things around the world.

 

[oldhp]

If that's true, then why aren't certain bad guys dead or in jail.

 

[Linctex]

I would say 8-10 years, as well. Although.... they do have the VERY BEST of available "current day" technology, I can assure you that!!! If they really want to listen to every single phone call into, within, and out of the united states (cell phones included) it is very possible. They use software similar to Rosetta Stone to listen for keywords, no matter what language is used.

 

[Linctex]

Originally Posted by oldhp

If that's true, then why aren't certain bad guys dead or in jail.

There are bigger fish to fry.

 

[demarpaint]

50 years, I'd say no way. 5-10 years maybe and even that might be a stretch.

 

[07titan]

Crazy,,watched Enemy of the State a few nights ago. At least a few years ahead.

 

[buster]

I doubt it's anywhere near 50 years ahead. I'm sure it's "the latest and greatest", but I would never put a number on it.

 

[edhackett]

Originally Posted by Onetor

Several years ago, a friend who is a distinguished Professor told me that the Central Intelligence Agency's technology is fifty years ahead of current tech. What are your thoughts?

My thoughts? I think your professor friend is an idiot. Any technology being used today is by definition current technology. Ed

 

[Garak]

Originally Posted by walterjay

Maybe 8-10 years. Fifty years from now we will be beaming things around the world.

Even from a theoretical standpoint, that's going to be exceedingly difficult. Storing the quantum state of every subatomic particle in a grain of sand would be a daunting proposition, let alone the energy involved in transmission. Of course, I certainly hope I'm wrong, because that would be fantastic. As for the general premise of being 50 years ahead, of course, that's neither here nor there. We don't know what's going to take fifty years to invent, and something highly advanced can come up unexpectedly quickly, too. Of course, governmental agencies, even the secret ones, aren't perfect at keeping secrets. If more than one person knows about something, it's no longer a secret. If a piece of technology (advanced or otherwise) is being used, it's at risk for compromise.

 

[DuckRyder]

If they have it now, it is current tech. They can never be ahead of current tech because when someone has it, it is current. Publicly, commonly or widely available is a different conversation...

 

[dave1251]

The dedication and the ingenuity of the people working there is what makes them ahead of their peers. Cutting edge technology helps.

 

[JeffKeryk]

50 years? Nope. I spent 20 years in Semi Mfg Equipment, which supplies the machines that process wafers into chips. For you scientists, the current tech node is 5nm. That means the smallest traces (wires) on the most dense layer of the chip, is 5 billionths of a meter. You may wanna Google 5nm 3D NAND memory... Anyways, using this science takes years to develop into a technology. The technology evolves constantly; R&D is costly. Companies (Intel, Samsung, etc) wanna get this stuff out to consumers. Now, the government does have super scientists (and programmers!) using available technology. At any cost... Beyond that, companies you know develop and sell to the government under confidentiality agreements.

 

[JohnnyJohnson]

Originally Posted by oldhp

If that's true, then why aren't certain bad guys dead or in jail.

To much data to process quickly so they just record it. They have spy devices every where your PC your phone etc, etc ,etc.

 

[Shannow]

https://www.wired.com/2013/04/gov-secrecy-orders-on-patents/

Quote

Congress decided in 1951 that some of those ideas must nonetheless be kept hidden. Today, as Silicon Valley and other innovation centers churn out thousands of patents a year, some lawmakers wonder whether the government should have broader powers. What is known about secrecy orders is largely the result of Freedom of Information Act requests filed by groups like the Federation of American Scientists, an independent, nonpartisan think tank. Those documents show that the overall number of secrecy orders has steadily increased in recent years, totaling more than 5,300 by 2012, with some of them in effect for decades.

 

[y_p_w]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk

50 years? Nope. I spent 20 years in Semi Mfg Equipment, which supplies the machines that process wafers into chips. For you scientists, the current tech node is 5nm. That means the smallest traces (wires) on the most dense layer of the chip, is 5 billionths of a meter. You may wanna Google 5nm 3D NAND memory... Anyways, using this science takes years to develop into a technology. The technology evolves constantly; R&D is costly. Companies (Intel, Samsung, etc) wanna get this stuff out to consumers. Now, the government does have super scientists (and programmers!) using available technology. At any cost... Beyond that, companies you know develop and sell to the government under confidentiality agreements.

They might be years ahead of other countries in terms of utilization of technology, but you're right that there's certainly no way their electronics manufacturing technology is somehow ahead of Intel, Samsung, or even TSMC. They don't really do anything other than buy commercial products and customize them. However, these days FPGA technology has made it possible to make high performance custom parts in small quantities and for specific purposes. It can be done in software, but not as efficiently as hardware. In my experience I remember hard coding an algorithm into hardware. It was a PITA to fix I made a mistake, but it as fast as a PC clocked 50+ times faster. I do remember interviewing for positions at defense/space contractors. It was odd to me how they were literally at least two generations behind in terms of semiconductor node tech. They apparently valued reliability and proven performance rather than having state of the art speed.

 

[PimTac]

The fact that this professor talked to you means you are being watched. White van at the corner?

 

[double vanos]

Fifty years from now we will be beaming things around the world. Alas, I'll be too dead to see it.....

 

[Snagglefoot]

It's the usual exaggerating teacher trying to impress students. Let's say the CIA has access to some things that are aren't public. Here is a paranoid list of what they might have. 1. They have a tab on you and know what websites you visit. 2. Using facial recognition software, GPS on your smart phone, cameras, they pretty much know where you are at all times. 3. They can listen in to all your conversations. 4. They know of all your purchases. 5, They know your financial situation. 6. They can watch you from satellites any time they want. So now the question is: what do they have that we haven't even thought about? I suppose it may along the lines of AI. Or perhaps your Roomba is picking up skin samples off your floor and anayizing your DNA. I don't think they are 50 years ahead but perhaps we'll hear about what they are doing 5 or 10 years from now.