CIA technology 50 years ahead of current technology

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted by y_p_w

Originally Posted by Snagglefoot

It's the usual exaggerating teacher trying to impress students. Let's say the CIA has access to some things that are aren't public.

i don't get that really. As far as electronics goes, what's available to the public is what's available to governments. But there are specific ways they're used that could be considerably more advanced. Now if the discussion is about materials and vehicle technology, then maybe there are some skunk works technology that the DoD and CIA have. I've heard it said that the best aircraft that the US Air Force have are at least 20 years ahead of what Russia and China have, and a lot of it has to do with manufacturing technology that they simply can't reproduce yet.

Budget has a lot to do with that. Foreign nations learned a lot from the Cold War. There's no point in matching US technology if it causes your society to collapse. It's no different from playing poker. If all you have in your pocket is your mortgage payments, don't sit at the high rollers table. It's really difficult to explain to starving citizens that their tax money is wrapped in rotting hulks that "bested" the US until the US launched an item making it obsolete the month after.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted by Shannow

Why would we want to cure cancer ? A MASSIVE part of the economy would collapse. Goldman Sachs give companies advice to concentrate on treatment, rather than cures, using a company that successfully treated Hep C as their example on what not to do.

That doctor giving away the cure for Polio is the Gold Standard of offensive practices where the pharma industry is concerned.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted by Shannow

https://www.wired.com/2013/04/gov-secrecy-orders-on-patents/

Quote

Congress decided in 1951 that some of those ideas must nonetheless be kept hidden. Today, as Silicon Valley and other innovation centers churn out thousands of patents a year, some lawmakers wonder whether the government should have broader powers. What is known about secrecy orders is largely the result of Freedom of Information Act requests filed by groups like the Federation of American Scientists, an independent, nonpartisan think tank. Those documents show that the overall number of secrecy orders has steadily increased in recent years, totaling more than 5,300 by 2012, with some of them in effect for decades.

Considering that Russia never caught up to that technology, I'd say that's a solid example.

 

[y_p_w]

Originally Posted by MolaKule

Originally Posted by Onetor

Several years ago, a friend who is a distinguished Professor told me that the Central Intelligence Agency's technology is fifty years ahead of current tech. What are your thoughts?

I would ask him to qualify that statement and ask, "In what technology areas?" Back in the '80's I worked for an aerospace company and we developed Integrated Circuits for NSA that was light years ahead in current technology and this type of technology was not available to the consumer market until 30 years later.

Not sure about that considering Moore's Law. I've interviewed at aerospace companies, and they were at least two generations behind in process node because of a requirement to use mature (and ostensibly ironed-out) processes. They were using radiation-hardened processes and would make ASICs for even the smallest production runs. Certainly at this point, Intel, TSMC, and Samsung have the most advanced semiconductor processes in the world. But there might be techniques that the US government has (and handed off to civilian contractors) that isn't done for commercial customers. I believe there might have been some low-yield semiconductor technology that government was willing to employ. Way back when, silicon on insulator, silicon on sapphire, or gallium arsenide were very expensive because of low yields. But if the government had a cost no object approach they could use them, while commercial customers might not be happy paying that much if they had to throw out failing parts. The commercial sector is sensitive to yield/cost analysis, but government customers less so.

 

[Pew]

Originally Posted by y_p_w

Originally Posted by MolaKule

Originally Posted by Onetor

Several years ago, a friend who is a distinguished Professor told me that the Central Intelligence Agency's technology is fifty years ahead of current tech. What are your thoughts?

I would ask him to qualify that statement and ask, "In what technology areas?" Back in the '80's I worked for an aerospace company and we developed Integrated Circuits for NSA that was light years ahead in current technology and this type of technology was not available to the consumer market until 30 years later.

Not sure about that considering Moore's Law. I've interviewed at aerospace companies, and they were at least two generations behind in process node because of a requirement to use mature (and ostensibly ironed-out) processes. They were using radiation-hardened processes and would make ASICs for even the smallest production runs. Certainly at this point, Intel, TSMC, and Samsung have the most advanced semiconductor processes in the world. But there might be techniques that the US government has (and handed off to civilian contractors) that isn't done for commercial customers. I believe there might have been some low-yield semiconductor technology that government was willing to employ. Way back when, silicon on insulator, silicon on sapphire, or gallium arsenide were very expensive because of low yields. But if the government had a cost no object approach they could use them, while commercial customers might not be happy paying that much if they had to throw out failing parts. The commercial sector is sensitive to yield/cost analysis, but government customers less so.

Also adding in the part of "what's feastible and can we make money off of it at this point." To me, the government spending bajillions on custom hardware and software makes sense but to have Intel, Samsung, etc roll it out to consumers that have no use for the technology at the moment doesn't seem financially feasible.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Actually, the high density geometries have commercial use today. 3D NAND refers to NAND stacked layers. This was developed because of the 5nm tech node.... IoT devices require lots of storage. This is the sweet spot for NAND.

 

[Alfred_B]

Originally Posted by Shannow

Why would we want to cure cancer ? A MASSIVE part of the economy would collapse. Goldman Sachs give companies advice to concentrate on treatment, rather than cures, using a company that successfully treated Hep C as their example on what not to do.

That's the moral hazard of the profit seeking healthcare system.

 

[PandaBear]

MIB maybe, CIA, probably the best money can or cannot buy today. When the industry is paying new grad 120-140k starting salary then 400k-600k when you are expert, and CIA maybe 90k starting and 120k when you are expert, you are NOT going to get 50 years ahead of the industry. They probably mandate enough back doors so they can listen to and get into everyone's conversation and traffic, but that doesn't mean they are 50 YEARS AHEAD. Now if you consider world bank funding certain semiconductor giants 20B to build a new fab, yeah, that can make them about 5 years ahead of competition and an automatic 40% market share. Now if you are talking about DIFFERENT technologies, then yes, government may do small run of GaAs on 4 inch wafers and manual process. One guy I used to work with had done government work before that would never be consumer scale, like keeping an obsoleted fab around just to make sure they can always make heat seeking sensors for missiles and chemical sensors for bio weapons. They are different, but not "50 years ahead" of civilian world. Super Computer? Only government would need them now, civilian just go rent 50000 instances of virtual machines on the cloud, and turn them off when done. No need to wait and no need to buy, maintain, and waste all the idle capacity.

 

[vavavroom]

Originally Posted by Onetor

Several years ago, a friend who is a distinguished Professor told me that the Central Intelligence Agency's technology is fifty years ahead of current tech. What are your thoughts?

Without a time machine, nobody is "ahead of current technology." Everybody is using either current or older technology. Just because you don't have access to some technology does not mean that the outfits who utilize such technology are ahead. It rather means that your baseline differs and that you are behind.

 

[PeterPolyol]

Good point. Imagine electrogravitic propulsion practiced by mankind during WW2. It's 2018 now and people still think it's wild theory. Civilian baseline? Haha We're basically cave people that still easily believe shallow misapprehensive narratives that shut down our curiousity to the actual reality of the matter.

 

[Shannow]

That, coupled with the want to be part of the "tribe" means that soon as a separate thinker is identified, "tin foil hat", "conspiracy theorist" both make the individual feel isolated, and the balance of the tribe feel more righteous, forcing conformity. Look at certain "R" institutions for thousands of years, and modern media (and BBs)

 

[PeterPolyol]

Absolutely. Definitely a 'safe conformity' phenomenon going on. Play dumb, strive to blend in, sympathize with obvious consensus exactly as it is and remain "safe". The bully tactics and threat of ostracization keep most people in check, and speaks volumes about those that use them. Yeh, scary how BBs can mimick the much more powerful and long standing institutions eh? The mindset is viral. Some things in this world we will never get "official" answers to, one way or the other. But you must understand that there is an answer. There is always the answer. Often times we're fed an "answer" (red herring) that is so in conflict of interests and senseless (but also persistent and still qualifies as logic, as fallacious as it may be), that one can be sure that it's NOT the answer you're looking for. Sometimes all it takes is to wax algebraic and plug in all the known values like "[conflict of] interest" and "follow the money" to obtain a framework in which the truth can be found. The worst thing is to perpetually trip over the consensual lies and bogus narratives; if one's reality isn't subject to regular internal audits then that person in trouble. A comfortable, unwittingly dangerous place to be in.