Be careful what you wish for EV

[PandaBear]

Fusion may be feasible, like hydrogen fuel cell on vehicles are feasible, but will not be economically practical for A LONG TIME. The cheaper way to the future of energy use would likely be some sort of fission nuke (thorium, Fast reactor with uranium), waste to power generation, solar and wind with much bigger grid, automated electric transit (overhead wire for long dedicated trucking route), etc. Most likely more efficient use of existing technology.

There will always be oil, we will always find a way to use them even when we don't waste them like we burn them to heat our house, but rather for plastic or transportation (trucking, jet fuel, gasoline). I do think we will eventually move to plant based plastic not only because it is more politically correct, but because we may find ways to bio-degrade them easier and solve our disposable container problems. Landfill will eventually be expensive if you don't have one locally.

I also think we will find ways to chemically dissolve plastic into liquid or gas fuel instead of burying them in landfill or clean then turn them into new containers. We will not solve the plastic in landfill problem until we figure this out, or the shipping / cleaning will be too expensive and nobody will recycle in the long run.

We need to get the nuke spent fuel reprocessing more efficient, and we will practically have "unlimited" energy (not free in dollar sense), and the waste would be 5-30 year half life instead of 500 or so.

 

[PandaBear]

$1000 per quart. Like I say be careful what you wish for.

Our civilization would be back to stone age before we will see $1k / qt in today's dollar.

 

[Astro14]

I remember in high school learning that the total mass "converted" to energy in the Hiroshima bomb was less than one gram. And then learning that this energy was not unique to plutonium or uranium, that every bit of mass has the same energy. It is almost impossible to wrap one's head around this, at least for me.

When you square "C" - it's a really, really big number...

 

[Astro14]

Let's avoid the bickering, and religion, please. I just deleted a couple of posts.

 

[4WD]

Fusion may be feasible, like hydrogen fuel cell on vehicles are feasible, but will not be economically practical for A LONG TIME. The cheaper way to the future of energy use would likely be some sort of fission nuke (thorium, Fast reactor with uranium), waste to power generation, solar and wind with much bigger grid, automated electric transit (overhead wire for long dedicated trucking route), etc. Most likely more efficient use of existing technology.

There will always be oil, we will always find a way to use them even when we don't waste them like we burn them to heat our house, but rather for plastic or transportation (trucking, jet fuel, gasoline). I do think we will eventually move to plant based plastic not only because it is more politically correct, but because we may find ways to bio-degrade them easier and solve our disposable container problems. Landfill will eventually be expensive if you don't have one locally.

I also think we will find ways to chemically dissolve plastic into liquid or gas fuel instead of burying them in landfill or clean then turn them into new containers. We will not solve the plastic in landfill problem until we figure this out, or the shipping / cleaning will be too expensive and nobody will recycle in the long run.

We need to get the nuke spent fuel reprocessing more efficient, and we will practically have "unlimited" energy (not free in dollar sense), and the waste would be 5-30 year half life instead of 500 or so.

Years ago Mobil developed a degradable trash bag - got sued - stopped making them …

 

[Torrid]

I don't know anyone who has an electric car personally that cares about using oil. I know for me I love not inhaling the fumes from the Tesla when I get in it in the garage. It's also exponentially cheaper to operate and a much more refined driving experience. The GTI sucks on cold start and then opening the hatch to put stuff in. I love both of my cars and I love the driving experience of both, especially the GTI but if I could skip the exhaust fume experience I would in a heartbeat.

That said I still plan to replace the GTI with a Golf R in the future.

 

[alarmguy]

Morgan Stanley just lowered their forecast for EV penetration by 20% for the years 2025 and 2030.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/morgan-stanley-cuts-ev-market-212327768.html

Just so we’re clear I take Wall Street media predictions with a grain of salt and that goes for predictions on the upside and downside.
No different than weather forecasts, when they are right, they brag about it, and when they are wrong nothing but crickets.
People don’t reason that Morgan Stanley just came out and admitted they were off by a gigantic 20% so the words previous to today meant nothing so no reason to think that these words mean anything more.

I’ve been saying countless times that people are kidding themselves if they think main stream America is going to go out and buy a $60,000+++ compact rough riding car that can only conveniently be driven around locally as a second car without worrying about recharge.
I am kind of bullish on GM because I think if anybody will be able to turn out something more cost-effective it will be them but time will tell I’m not invested in either yet if ever.

Price and convenience need to come together in a small, medium and full size SUV

 

[PWMDMD]

I remember in high school learning that the total mass "converted" to energy in the Hiroshima bomb was less than one gram. And then learning that this energy was not unique to plutonium or uranium, that every bit of mass has the same energy. It is almost impossible to wrap one's head around this, at least for me.

As an aside, I always used E = MC^2 when my kids started learning physics to teach them some tricks to understanding equations. Like Astro said C^2 is a really really big number and even a small number multiplied by a really really big number is still a big number. Since C is just a constant of proportionality used to make the units work out, I'd teach them to set it equal to 1 in their head so they could have an easy way to mentally understand what the equation was trying to tell them, here, E is proportional to M. My other favorite was Fg = G (m1 m2/r^2) to discuss the concept of direct proportionality and inverse proportionality and the inverse square law.

I've had more "eureka" moments in physics than in any other subject I've studied and simple things like mass-energy equivalence still blows my mind.

 

[Exhaustgases]

Our civilization would be back to stone age before we will see $1k / qt in today's dollar.

On topic with prices going nuts, just look at how R134A is now going through the roof. Used to get a small can for a few bucks, now in Wa state it is unobtainium. Any private person selling it wants crazy high prices for it. And soon to become the same for every state. So proof it can happen.

 

[PandaBear]

On topic with prices going nuts, just look at how R134A is now going through the roof. Used to get a small can for a few bucks, now in Wa state it is unobtainium. Any private person selling it wants crazy high prices for it. And soon to become the same for every state. So proof it can happen.

Not a good comparison, because we have moved away from R134A and it is a retiring product, in low volume. The replacement is not like that.

 

[Exhaustgases]

What replacement? It may not be able to work in the old systems?

 

[Snagglefoot]

The replacement is R1234YF. All the new vehicles have it. It does work with existing vehicles using R134A. You are supposed to get the R134 professionally removed but I find most AC problems involve leaks and the R134A is long gone. Sooo, fix the leaks, replace the accumulator and orifice tube, pull vacuum and load in R1234YF. No idea why it has such a fancy name. The accumulator and orifice tube is just for preventive maintenance .

Here is an example of the connection that fits a R134A equipped vehicle.

 

[bullwinkle]

Still have quite a few things using R134A, many commercial small refrigeration systems have been transitioning to propane (AKA R-290), but it seems to be pretty leak prone. I’m still not having much trouble buying 134, although the price has been going up.

 

[bullwinkle]

The replacement is R1234YF. All the new vehicles have it. It does work with existing vehicles using R134A. You are supposed to get the R134 professionally removed but I find most AC problems involve leaks and the R134A is long gone. Sooo, fix the leaks, replace the accumulator and orifice tube, pull vacuum and load in R1234YF. No idea why it has such a fancy name. The accumulator and orifice tube is just for preventive maintenance .

Here is an example of the connection that fits a R134A equipped vehicle.

View attachment 131162

And if you think R134A is high, be sure to be sitting down when you price R1234YF-it can be as much as $100/pound!! Apparently there’s a big loss of capacity as well, 10% or more less than R134A.

 

[Exhaustgases]

Being flammable I don't think retro fitting is allowed, and is very dangerous with a leak.

 

[kschachn]

Being flammable I don't think retro fitting is allowed, and is very dangerous with a leak.

Not any more dangerous than any other vehicle with HFO-1234yf. Which is to say, not very.

 

[Exhaustgases]

Maybe the reason for this is to prove EV's aren't the only ones with a fire hazard.