Be careful what you wish for EV

[4WD]

It is Kool-Aid - Three states have banned fracking. Currently right now, based on data from The American Oil and Gas Reporter fracking rigs are nearly as high as they were pre-pandemic and of the 285 running pads most are multiwell pads and so it's more like +1000 wells are currently being fracted. There are currently 92 running nuclear power plants in the US. Oil wells are nearly as high as pre-pandemic levels as well. Oil is alive and well in the US and what little difference there is now between oil/fracking wells is due to the massive losses that occurred during the pandemic. Here's a hint - people like $2.50/gallon gas but oil companies lost A TON of money on that cheap gas (remember the cost to produce it did not change) and most small refiners went out of business. The most anti-oil policy possible is any policy that artificially forces low oil/gas prices - consumers love it but oil companies lose a ton of money.

https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-frac-spread-count/2022

First of all - you telling me the how, when, and why of oil & gas development is like me telling you that about dentistry …

But, I’d rather hear from the 3 Germans I work with (2 engineers & 1 in accounting) who’d ask you what flavor you like best.

 

[Ws6]

With the talk of the new fusion generator on the news today, and ending dependence on oil (mineral oil and fuel)
no fossil catch words with me. Lets say everything doesn't need oil to burn to make the power that is needed.
Does everyone think that will end "ALL USE OF OIL" sorry but no, it will still be needed for many aspects of manufacturing and even lubrication of the wheel bearings and of your EV motors. But since there supposedly would be no need for the lighter ends of the oil then what? And since no money comes from massive sales of liquid fuel any more, then what will that do to the price of normal old lubricating oils and grease? Yes maybe then a small container of sewing machine oil will cost $100 or so. Imagine what the cost of plastic will soar to, plastic could end up being the price of gold, as well as lubricating oil. It is very expensive to extract oil from the ground and then refine it, those costs will need to be recouped some how.
Steel mills need lubricating oils, as well as any machine shop. The price of everything would go super crazy with lubricating oils and grease going up to say
$1000 per quart. Like I say be careful what you wish for.

Is this like household batteries cost us $100 each in the early 2000's before EV's?

 

[4WD]

Fracking needs price of oil above $65 at least, and even that is best case scenario. Realistically it is more above $75.

And as you know - the completion is more expensive than the drilling phase - hence when the bottom falls out - the completion/stimulation work gets cut - the wells sit and wait. Huge backlogs to work through later …

Multi-stage and multimillion pound jobs are creating shortages that impact intangible costs and related …

 

[skyactiv]

This fusion discovery could be a con job to get more research money. It needs continuing research, however… .

 

[PWMDMD]

First of all - you telling me the how, when, and why of oil & gas development is like me telling you that about dentistry …

But, I’d rather hear from the 3 Germans I work with (2 engineers & 1 in accounting) who’d ask you what flavor you like best.

Ok...lol...use your big boy words and have a discussion. I've stated my position - now state yours - contrary to many on the internet I'm happy to learn something.

...and if you made a statement about dentistry I would not summarily dismiss your comment even if I disagreed. Debate is how people learn something new.

 

[4WD]

Ok...lol...use your big boy words and have a discussion. I've stated my position - now state yours - contrary to many on the internet I'm happy to learn something.

Nothing to discuss without politics - that’s the issue “big boy“ …
2 bans in Germany already … Like minded people …

 

[PWMDMD]

Nothing to discuss without politics - that’s the issue “big boy“ …
2 bans in Germany already … Like minded people …

Insightful...well I lost my crystal ball long ago but I constantly hear people claim what you're hinting at in the future is here right now and as best I can tell it doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[dubber09]

The breakthrough with fusion was just that - they let plasma break thru the retaining walls of the unit damaging it. The issue nobody can solve as of yet and everyone is trying for decades now - to keep plasma contained and not touching the walls. 192 lasers? Hmm, that's a few lasers ..

 

[JeffKeryk]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in right in my back yard. Amazing place.

"The U.S. Department of Energy announced Tuesday a monumental milestone in nuclear fusion research: a "net energy gain" was achieved for the first time in history by scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California."

We know about fusion; we just don't know how to control it. This is a huge step forward.

 

[StumblingElk]

Transportation (land, air, and sea) only account for about 16% of global greenhouse emissions. This can be taken 1 of 2 ways depending on your stance on EV's or climate change.

So, even if all of our cars are EV, demand for petroleum products and oil will still be relevant as will the supply.

 

[edyvw]

The demand for oil will always be there. What is BIG difference is that lower demand changes geopolitical map.

 

[loneryder]

1. The argument is not about using oil for manufacturing or lubrication - it's about burning it. There will still be plenty of uses for oil for a long time.

2. There is in fact a finite volume of oil/NG on this planet. Sooner or later we had better have some alternative.

3. Anyone who thinks alternative energy is about the goal of zero oil use is an idiot and drinking too much Kool-Aid. It's about shifting away from predominately burning it where possible to conserve it for other uses that aren't as harmful to the environment. We don't have to meet a goal of zero oil use to see improvements in various measurements.

4. The fastest timeline has commercial fusion decades away and even then it will likely be available only to wealthy countries first and it will likely be several more decades until it is used in poorer countries.

So you think the earth stopped producing oil and natural gas a long time ago?? I believe the process has continued. The earth just doesn't stop doing things.

 

[PWMDMD]

So you think the earth stopped producing oil and natural gas a long time ago?? I believe the process has continued. The earth just doesn't stop doing things.

Can all the oil on earth regardless of depth or location or difficulty of extraction be recovered? No. What are we recovering right now? The easiest oil to recover which is also the most economical oil to recover.

It doesn't matter that the earth is continuously producing oil if there's no economical way to extract it. The "proven" oil reserves are about 1,700 billion barrels. You can talk about "technologically recoverable oil" which exceeds the proven oil reserves several times over but again there will likely come a point where it is no longer economically viable to recover this oil because it is too difficult and costly to recover. Once the low to mid-hanging fruit is recovered we still have a problem because the cost of recovery is passed onto the consumer. We are running out of economical and easily recoverable oil.

People are losing their minds when oil is $120 per barrel. What will people be willing to pay in 100 years when the cost to recover the "difficult oil" is several times more than now? Are you willing to pay an inflation-adjusted $20 per gallon? $40 per gallon? For all the bitching and moaning here and in other places about increases in fuel economy, EVs, etc, one way or another, they are coming and they will be required to keep this planet going. If you don't care about the environmental impact fine but most people won't ignore the impact on their wallets.

 

[Astro14]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in right in my back yard. Amazing place.

"The U.S. Department of Energy announced Tuesday a monumental milestone in nuclear fusion research: a "net energy gain" was achieved for the first time in history by scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California."

We know about fusion; we just don't know how to control it. This is a huge step forward.

No, it’s a tiny, incremental step forward.

Net energy gain? Big deal.

A modest increase in reaction efficiency when we need orders of magnitude better efficiency and a way to contain a continuous reaction.

For some reality, some perspective, the lasers are about 1% efficient. So, they put about 2 MJ into the reaction, which yielded 3MJ.

But powering the lasers themselves took…are you ready?

300 MJ. So, the REAL net energy in this reaction was a 99% LOSS.

We are closer than we were, but we’re not close.

 

[edyvw]

So you think the earth stopped producing oil and natural gas a long time ago?? I believe the process has continued. The earth just doesn't stop doing things.

Of course. However, absolutely, nowhere near as fast as we are extracting. It is a process that takes millions of years.

 

[OVERKILL]

No, it’s a tiny, incremental step forward.

Net energy gain? Big deal.

A modest increase in reaction efficiency when we need orders of magnitude better efficiency and a way to contain a continuous reaction.

For some reality, some perspective, the lasers are about 1% efficient. So, they put about 2 MJ into the reaction, which yielded 3MJ.

But powering the lasers themselves took…are you ready?

300 MJ. So, the REAL net energy in this reaction was a 99% LOSS.

We are closer than we were, but we’re not close.

Yup, exactly. In comparison, fissioning 1x 7g uranium fuel pellet produces 17,811MJ.

Had to edit that, lol, was using cubic meters initially, lol.

 

[Exhaustgases]

Of course. However, absolutely, nowhere near as fast as we are extracting. It is a process that takes millions of years.

Really? You must be god to know all this?

 

[PWMDMD]

Really? You must be god to know all this?

Nope, we don’t need God to answer this question - just science! Now and hear me out on this one, geochemistry is entire scientific discipline and one of the many great questions they study is how long does it take all the phytoplankton, algae, and other living stuff to turn into oil.

https://www.livescience.com/33087-how-oil-form-petroleum.html

 

[oilcandave]

Nope, we don’t need God to answer this question - just science! Now and hear me out on this one, geochemistry is entire scientific discipline and one of the many great questions they study is how long does it take all the phytoplankton, algae, and other living stuff to turn into oil.

https://www.livescience.com/33087-how-oil-form-petroleum.html

All that is a money grab from the tax payers to the scientifical elites. The results of these tax funded studies are skewed to give results favorable to the social engineers. Did i mention the earth is flat?

 

[kschachn]

Yup, exactly. In comparison, fissioning 1x 7g uranium fuel pellet produces 17,811MJ.

I remember in high school learning that the total mass "converted" to energy in the Hiroshima bomb was less than one gram. And then learning that this energy was not unique to plutonium or uranium, that every bit of mass has the same energy. It is almost impossible to wrap one's head around this, at least for me.