Be careful what you wish for EV

[Exhaustgases]

With the talk of the new fusion generator on the news today, and ending dependence on oil (mineral oil and fuel)
no fossil catch words with me. Lets say everything doesn't need oil to burn to make the power that is needed.
Does everyone think that will end "ALL USE OF OIL" sorry but no, it will still be needed for many aspects of manufacturing and even lubrication of the wheel bearings and of your EV motors. But since there supposedly would be no need for the lighter ends of the oil then what? And since no money comes from massive sales of liquid fuel any more, then what will that do to the price of normal old lubricating oils and grease? Yes maybe then a small container of sewing machine oil will cost $100 or so. Imagine what the cost of plastic will soar to, plastic could end up being the price of gold, as well as lubricating oil. It is very expensive to extract oil from the ground and then refine it, those costs will need to be recouped some how.
Steel mills need lubricating oils, as well as any machine shop. The price of everything would go super crazy with lubricating oils and grease going up to say
$1000 per quart. Like I say be careful what you wish for.

 

[OVERKILL]

I wouldn't be too worried about fusion at this juncture.

Yes, hydrocarbons are going to remain a key part of society for decades to come, even if we do manage to eliminate them from power generation.

 

[Jetronic]

The main issue with hydrocarbons comes from using them as fuel, not for the other uses. Of course discarding plastics is another big thing.

But no, they aren't going away. I would expect synthesizing the "lighter fractions" as shell does with gas to liquid will become a bigger thing.

Let's not forget, if the US figures out fusion power, the rest of the world will still needgas for cars anyway. It won't end overnight.

 

[weasley]

Don't forget the myriad other places that oil-derived products go to - fusion reactors can't do most of those...

 

[skyactiv]

I hope I’m wrong, but I think we will all be dead before any practical use of fusion is used in our lifetime

 

[PWMDMD]

1. The argument is not about using oil for manufacturing or lubrication - it's about burning it. There will still be plenty of uses for oil for a long time.

2. There is in fact a finite volume of oil/NG on this planet. Sooner or later we had better have some alternative.

3. Anyone who thinks alternative energy is about the goal of zero oil use is an idiot and drinking too much Kool-Aid. It's about shifting away from predominately burning it where possible to conserve it for other uses that aren't as harmful to the environment. We don't have to meet a goal of zero oil use to see improvements in various measurements.

4. The fastest timeline has commercial fusion decades away and even then it will likely be available only to wealthy countries first and it will likely be several more decades until it is used in poorer countries.

 

[RedSpider]

Given the average age of the crowd here, most people here will long gone before this makes a dent in the average person's life, if its anything like they are hyping this to be. Wasnt there some other Huge Breakthough™ in fusion 10 or 20 years ago? Time flies when you're messing with radiation I guess.

Yea, your grandchildren's kids might benefit from this. Maybe.

 

[Jetronic]

1. The argument is not about using oil for manufacturing or lubrication - it's about burning it. There will still be plenty of uses for oil for a long time.

2. There is in fact a finite volume of oil/NG on this planet. Sooner or later we had better have some alternative.

3. Anyone who thinks alternative energy is about the goal of zero oil use is an idiot and drinking too much Kool-Aid. It's about shifting away from predominately burning it where possible to conserve it for other uses that aren't as harmful to the environment. We don't have to meet a goal of zero oil use to see improvements in various measurements.

4. The fastest timeline has commercial fusion decades away and even then it will likely be available only to wealthy countries first and it will likely be several more decades until it is used in poorer countries.

well said!

 

[BISCUT]

Our education system and ideology on all sides of the political realm sure aren't helping us develop the inquisitive, analytical mindset to further new discoveries at a heightened pace. They are out there but we need more! I would like to see a reasonable path to reduce reliance on petrol products before I'm in the ground.

 

[RooflessVW]

I hope I’m wrong, but I think we will all be dead before any practical use of fusion is used in our lifetime

For power generation, anyway.

 

[aquariuscsm]

Fossil Fuels (oil, gas, etc) will be here till the end of humanity.

 

[4WD]

Our education system and ideology on all sides of the political realm sure aren't helping us develop the inquisitive, analytical mindset to further new discoveries at a heightened pace. They are out there but we need more! I would like to see a reasonable path to reduce reliance on petrol products before I'm in the ground.

Good thing you selected in the ground - I doubt cremation will remain cheap in an all electric world

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

"..Fusion fuel – different isotopes of hydrogen – must be heated to extreme temperatures of the order of 50 million degrees Celsius, and must be kept stable under intense pressure, hence dense enough and confined for long enough to allow the nuclei to fuse...."


Let's not put the cart before the horse. Oil has plenty of uses outside lubrication and we'll be burning it for decades to come.

 

[aquariuscsm]

Now if they can get the EV tech down where it's just as efficient as gasoline, I'd be all about it. I'd get the Tesla two-seater coupe that Jeff posted a picture of the other day

 

[4WD]

1. The argument is not about using oil for manufacturing or lubrication - it's about burning it. There will still be plenty of uses for oil for a long time.

2. There is in fact a finite volume of oil/NG on this planet. Sooner or later we had better have some alternative.

3. Anyone who thinks alternative energy is about the goal of zero oil use is an idiot and drinking too much Kool-Aid. It's about shifting away from predominately burning it where possible to conserve it for other uses that aren't as harmful to the environment. We don't have to meet a goal of zero oil use to see improvements in various measurements.

4. The fastest timeline has commercial fusion decades away and even then it will likely be available only to wealthy countries first and it will likely be several more decades until it is used in poorer countries.

Whilst I agree that’s how it should be - just think how quickly those in power have banned entire sectors like nuclear - or fracking (the reason the US has reserves again is hydraulic stimulation) - or they still plan to ban this or that …
It‘s not KoolAid drinking - this has happened on a large scale …

 

[alarmguy]

The less oil that is used the better off I am going to be! It will keep costs low for my fossil fuel ICE SUV now and most likely (gulp) for the rest of my hopefully long lifetime.
EVs in their present form are not going to replace anything but they will have a place in our society for people that they are practical for.

A battery operated EV will never be practical for me personally as my MAIN SUV.
I will never goes backwards in time, reduce my standard of living because I have to charge up the battery in my EV.
For an around town second vehicle that sits home most of the time, sure, I will do that, if the price is lower or same than an ICE vehicle as I am certainly not going to inconvenience myself charging up my car and paying more for the privilege.

Its shortsighted to think plugging in an EV and being TIED to one source of fuel with one company dictating the price of that fuel (your electric company) that its going to be a match made in heaven. All I know is the cost of electricity has gone up more than gasoline in the last 40 years, just wait until electric starts replacing ICE vehicles if you think it expensive now.

Im not against anything, Im explaining what will work for me, to me, the current EV is primitive going back to an age of inconvenience for what would be my use but not that of my wife.

The good news is fossil fuel costs will be lower for generations not higher, competition with the electric utilities will keep it that way in the next generation.
Let's also keep in mind, EVs make up less than 1% of the vehicles on the road but we talk like all of a sudden its going to be 75% overnight.

By the time this all happens, if ever, no one in this forum will still be living and lithium will not be the storage device for EVs.

 

[PWMDMD]

Whilst I agree that’s how it should be - just think how quickly those in power have banned entire sectors like nuclear - or fracking (the reason the US has reserves again is hydraulic stimulation) - or they still plan to ban this or that …
It‘s not KoolAid drinking - this has happened on a large scale …

It is Kool-Aid - Three states have banned fracking. Currently right now, based on data from The American Oil and Gas Reporter fracking rigs are nearly as high as they were pre-pandemic and of the 285 running pads most are multiwell pads and so it's more like +1000 wells are currently being fracted. There are currently 92 running nuclear power plants in the US. Oil wells are nearly as high as pre-pandemic levels as well. Oil is alive and well in the US and what little difference there is now between oil/fracking wells is due to the massive losses that occurred during the pandemic. Here's a hint - people like $2.50/gallon gas but oil companies lost A TON of money on that cheap gas (remember the cost to produce it did not change) and most small refiners went out of business. The most anti-oil policy possible is any policy that artificially forces low oil/gas prices - consumers love it but oil companies lose a ton of money.

https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-frac-spread-count/2022

 

[edyvw]

It is Kool-Aid - Three states have banned fracking. Currently right now, based on data from The American Oil and Gas Reporter fracking rigs are nearly as high as they were pre-pandemic and of the 285 running pads most are multiwell pads and so it's more like +1000 wells are currently being fracted. There are currently 92 running nuclear power plants in the US. Oil wells are nearly as high as pre-pandemic levels as well. Oil is alive and well in the US and what little difference there is now between oil/fracking wells is due to the massive losses that occurred during the pandemic. Here's a hint - people like $2.50/gallon gas but oil companies lost A TON of money on that cheap gas (remember the cost to produce it did not change) and most small refiners went out of business. The most anti-oil policy possible is any policy that artificially forces low oil/gas prices - consumers love it but oil companies lose a ton of money.

https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-frac-spread-count/2022

Fracking needs price of oil above $65 at least, and even that is best case scenario. Realistically it is more above $75.

 

[kschachn]

I wouldn't be too worried about fusion at this juncture.

Yes, hydrocarbons are going to remain a key part of society for decades to come, even if we do manage to eliminate them from power generation.

Yep, developing a commercial fusion reactor is nothing like fission. With one all you have to essentially do is bring enough of the material together in one place and poof it happens. But the other is a constant fight on each and every level to overcome the natural tendencies of the material. There's a reason it takes a fission bomb to initiate a fusion reaction, it is not easy to start and even harder to perpetuate.

 

[PWMDMD]

Yep, developing a commercial fusion reactor is nothing like fission. With one all you have to essentially do is bring enough of the material together in one place and poof it happens. But the other is a constant fight on each and every level to overcome the natural tendencies of the material. There's a reason it takes a fission bomb to initiate a fusion reaction, it is not easy to start and even harder to perpetuate.

There's a great story about Richard Feynman walking into Los Alamos and having an oh poop moment when he realized how close they were storing the nuclear fuel - clearly, someone there didn't understand all it takes are enough neutrons in a small enough volume of space/high enough density and the chain reaction is initiated.