April lubricants industry market update.

[Foxtrot08]

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/ne...ng-lubricant-supply-through-global-disruption

First of probably multiple public statements from the majors. It’s of course very carefully worded. But, reformulations and shortages are here.

 

[tired]

Someone made a Strait of Hormuz tracker on Bloomberg Terminal.

Not much moving yet.

 

[mitsuman47]

Someone made a Strait of Hormuz tracker on Bloomberg Terminal.

Not much moving yet.

There likely won’t be much moving for a while. De-mining operations will take some time to complete. I’ve heard that Iran has placed somewhere between 1000 and 3000 mines in the straight. Estimates, of course. But, regardless of the actual number, the entire thing needs to be carefully mine swept.

 

[4wd]

There likely won’t be much moving for a while. De-mining operations will take some time to complete. I’ve heard that Iran has placed somewhere between 1000 and 3000 mines in the straight. Estimates, of course. But, regardless of the actual number, the entire thing needs to be carefully mine swept.

Yep, a lane at a time ? Escorted ? Baby steps - but needed …

 

[4wd]

ADNOC on track for their next (Hormuz bypass) pipeline to be operational next year. UAE has said farewell to OPEC.
Expect SA to add more east/west capacity as well.
Some good changes …

 

[thunderfog]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

 

[4wd]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

Well, case in point - with the fairly liberal use of the word “synthetic” in the US market - it was already easy for store brand lubes to add some Grp2+ to Grp3. If they can tweak that even more - and still pass - you bet they will try out the supply chain talents …

 

[Foxtrot08]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

So, it depends on your opinion.

The only way, I know, to make a synthetic blend, with Dexos approval, is with a lot of PAO. I could be wrong, but that’s my understanding. It’s really not worth doing a group II / III blend. So you’re jumping up to PAO anyways.

Is a G2 / PAO blend better or worse than a straight group 3?

I mean it’s an interesting question.

 

[tired]

The only way, I know, to make a synthetic blend, with Dexos approval, is with a lot of PAO.

I wonder if this is how AMSOIL is making their synthetic blend.

 

[oakaro68]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

 

[melk]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

Of course it won’t, HPL has their own magic supply of base stocks that appears out of thin air.

 

[Foxtrot08]

Pennzoil now also, has a Dexos approved Synthetic blend.

 

[OilStained]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

 

[tired]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

It already has. They've raised prices quite a bit.

 

[tired]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

Yeah it already gets turned into Supertech.

 

[CleanSump]

Price of crude dropped to March pre-situation today. If things hold up as to supply moving again, what's the prognosis timewise for Group III and GTL production facilities getting back online?

 

[tired]

Price of crude dropped to March pre-situation today. If things hold up as to supply moving again, what's the prognosis timewise for Group III and GTL production facilities getting back online?

7 months to a year if the strait opened back to normal today. (Hasn’t happened yet.) 1-3 years for plant repair operations for GTL.

The market is pricing oil like 1) The tap turns on instantly 2) shipping resumes at normal levels instantly and 3) Nothing got blown up. None of this is true.

What’s insane right now is the shorts on Brent oil are at all time record levels right now. If things go south again in Iran, we could legitimately see a short squeeze on oil prices.

Wild times in the near future.

 

[CleanSump]

7 months to a year if the strait opened back to normal today. (Hasn’t happened yet.) 1-3 years for plant repair operations for GTL.


What’s insane right now is the shorts on Brent oil are at all time record levels right now. If things go south again in Iran, we could legitimately see a short squeeze on oil prices.

Wild times in the near future.

The first part answers my question about the damaged facilities, thank you.
All media reports are that record amounts of oil are flowing through the strait and ships are moving. Over 20 million barrels a day. Yes it will take a while to see the increase affect on the consumer market. That's to be expected given that every country and company wants it and every country and company has little to no reserve left.

 

[Rmay635703]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

Oil recyclers are delighted as demand for their products has gone up exponentially

I posted a blurb focused on this a while ago.

The spot price for drain oil went up as well

 

[tired]

The first part answers my question about the damaged facilities, thank you.
All media reports are that record amounts of oil are flowing through the strait and ships are moving. Over 20 million barrels a day. Yes it will take a while to see the increase affect on the consumer market. That's to be expected given that every country and company wants it and every country and company has little to no reserve left.

It’s still a trickle. Used to be about 95 ships a day going through before the war. Now we’re seeing a few dozen. Progress, but we’ve got a ways to go, and the SPR is very low, as you mentioned.