April lubricants industry market update.

[Foxtrot08]

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/ne...ng-lubricant-supply-through-global-disruption

First of probably multiple public statements from the majors. It’s of course very carefully worded. But, reformulations and shortages are here.

 

[tired]

Someone made a Strait of Hormuz tracker on Bloomberg Terminal.

Not much moving yet.

 

[mitsuman47]

Someone made a Strait of Hormuz tracker on Bloomberg Terminal.

Not much moving yet.

There likely won’t be much moving for a while. De-mining operations will take some time to complete. I’ve heard that Iran has placed somewhere between 1000 and 3000 mines in the straight. Estimates, of course. But, regardless of the actual number, the entire thing needs to be carefully mine swept.

 

[4wd]

There likely won’t be much moving for a while. De-mining operations will take some time to complete. I’ve heard that Iran has placed somewhere between 1000 and 3000 mines in the straight. Estimates, of course. But, regardless of the actual number, the entire thing needs to be carefully mine swept.

Yep, a lane at a time ? Escorted ? Baby steps - but needed …

 

[4wd]

ADNOC on track for their next (Hormuz bypass) pipeline to be operational next year. UAE has said farewell to OPEC.
Expect SA to add more east/west capacity as well.
Some good changes …

 

[thunderfog]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

 

[4wd]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

Well, case in point - with the fairly liberal use of the word “synthetic” in the US market - it was already easy for store brand lubes to add some Grp2+ to Grp3. If they can tweak that even more - and still pass - you bet they will try out the supply chain talents …

 

[Foxtrot08]

So it's safe to assume these reformulations of the base oils will be.........less good? (from the exxon article)

So, it depends on your opinion.

The only way, I know, to make a synthetic blend, with Dexos approval, is with a lot of PAO. I could be wrong, but that’s my understanding. It’s really not worth doing a group II / III blend. So you’re jumping up to PAO anyways.

Is a G2 / PAO blend better or worse than a straight group 3?

I mean it’s an interesting question.

 

[tired]

The only way, I know, to make a synthetic blend, with Dexos approval, is with a lot of PAO.

I wonder if this is how AMSOIL is making their synthetic blend.

 

[oakaro68]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

 

[melk]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

Of course it won’t, HPL has their own magic supply of base stocks that appears out of thin air.

 

[Foxtrot08]

Pennzoil now also, has a Dexos approved Synthetic blend.

 

[OilStained]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

 

[tired]

I wonder if this supply chain disruption is going to affect HPL... Crossing my fingers it won't

It already has. They've raised prices quite a bit.

 

[tired]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

Yeah it already gets turned into Supertech.

 

[CleanSump]

Price of crude dropped to March pre-situation today. If things hold up as to supply moving again, what's the prognosis timewise for Group III and GTL production facilities getting back online?

 

[williaty]

Price of crude dropped to March pre-situation today. If things hold up as to supply moving again, what's the prognosis timewise for Group III and GTL production facilities getting back online?

The market is pricing oil like 1) The tap turns on instantly 2) shipping resumes at normal levels instantly and 3) Nothing got blown up. None of this is true.

Specific to this thread, with that GTL plant having been blown up, that's constrained supply of base oil for months to years (more likely years), even if the US surrender actually stays in effect.