Then you need to move where the jobs are
Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
I have a job. Theres like 300000 ppl but only a few thousand jobs here. Most people commute to LosAngelas for work. Not something I am willing to do for a few dollars a day more.
Theres nothing available for recent grads or anyone without skills
Then they need to move where the jobs are or make that commute. I live in the suburbs of NYC good jobs in the suburbs but the big money is in NYC. I ran around NYC for 30 years made a good living but it finally wore on me.
I know multiple people in the same boat.
If you don’t have 20 years of experience and also aren’t willing to work for entry level pay no jobs for you.
A few folks have managed to walk the fringe and make money as being independently employed outside a normal 9-5 because no one is hiring in their field but then it’s a big pay cut half the year.
The last 8 months have been a bloodbath of people moving into part time with light hours from full time.
.the Construction field has been extremely sporadic with pretty much 100% .gov related and cancelled contracts.
This is nice vindication for those of us who were called conspiracy theorists when we said the jobs report numbers were garbage.
As a reminder, initial jobs report from Q3, 2023 was + August +187K, Sept +336K, and Oct +150K. So total Q3 based jobs were +673K jobs created. Now note, these are all based on a couple surveys, and they do get revised as time goes on and the numbers were revised down, but in the end, even the revisions are based on survey responses and seldom reported.
Until a couple quarters later you get the BED report. This is where every business that employs someone must by law report to their state's unemployment office, for purposes of collecting payroll taxes and unemployment premiums. So its real data, not a survey. Well that data is out, and I will let it speak for itself. Highlights are mine.
BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS – THIRD QUARTER 2023 From June 2023 to September 2023, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.8 million, a decrease of 37,000 jobs from the previous quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over this period, gross job gains from opening and expanding private sector establishments were 7.6 million, a decrease of 561,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment decline of 192,000 jobs in the private sector during the third quarter of 2023.
So someone please point me to the mainstream media reporting 192,000 net job losses versus +673K gain as initially reported.
Read the whole BED report here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf
As a reminder, initial jobs report from Q3, 2023 was + August +187K, Sept +336K, and Oct +150K. So total Q3 based jobs were +673K jobs created. Now note, these are all based on a couple surveys, and they do get revised as time goes on and the numbers were revised down, but in the end, even the revisions are based on survey responses and seldom reported.
Until a couple quarters later you get the BED report. This is where every business that employs someone must by law report to their state's unemployment office, for purposes of collecting payroll taxes and unemployment premiums. So its real data, not a survey. Well that data is out, and I will let it speak for itself. Highlights are mine.
BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS – THIRD QUARTER 2023 From June 2023 to September 2023, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.8 million, a decrease of 37,000 jobs from the previous quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over this period, gross job gains from opening and expanding private sector establishments were 7.6 million, a decrease of 561,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment decline of 192,000 jobs in the private sector during the third quarter of 2023.
So someone please point me to the mainstream media reporting 192,000 net job losses versus +673K gain as initially reported.
Read the whole BED report here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf
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A lot of the small towns the big employers are Dollar General, Wal-Mart and CVS.
Watching The Big Short on YouTube, it's free w commercials. Very Educational
I don't believe we are as bad or as good as the media wants us to believe, we are somewhere in the middle is what I am seeing.
We came out of a pandemic job boom from the QE, and everyone was trying to get free money to use and hire, invest, etc. The free money is now gone and we actually have a 5.4% short term T bill rate, that means somehow everyone else likely need to pay close to that + risk premium to justify the lending, the investment, the borrowing, etc. We obviously have to have some job cuts if the juice isn't worth the squeeze, that's normal.
Job market on the lower end is where most of the growth is at. Sure there are more McJobs but the McJobs are now paying more to catch up to inflation (i.e. $20 / hr), some would be gone forever but that's how economy works, since stone age, and be replaced with automation. The easy to do $400k programming job is gone, replaced with something that pays less, something that requires commute, or something that you have to move to some small town to do if you want to remote (instead of say, living in NYC or San Francisco and just remote because you want to be cozy at home).
I do think we have a good chance in the US to be ok. The highish rate is now pulling a lot of money back from international market so we have enough money not to get a bank collapse, but I don't know about EU / Brit / China, they may get hit real hard if they can't figure out their own rates and repeat the Asian Financial Crisis.
Right now I have a feeling the institutionals are only propping up AI stocks and everything has gone down otherwise. I'm sitting on some short term T bill waiting for opportunities, and have been holding what I bought since 14-3 years ago not selling. I am waiting for a better deal than T bill at 5.3% the moment.
We came out of a pandemic job boom from the QE, and everyone was trying to get free money to use and hire, invest, etc. The free money is now gone and we actually have a 5.4% short term T bill rate, that means somehow everyone else likely need to pay close to that + risk premium to justify the lending, the investment, the borrowing, etc. We obviously have to have some job cuts if the juice isn't worth the squeeze, that's normal.
Job market on the lower end is where most of the growth is at. Sure there are more McJobs but the McJobs are now paying more to catch up to inflation (i.e. $20 / hr), some would be gone forever but that's how economy works, since stone age, and be replaced with automation. The easy to do $400k programming job is gone, replaced with something that pays less, something that requires commute, or something that you have to move to some small town to do if you want to remote (instead of say, living in NYC or San Francisco and just remote because you want to be cozy at home).
I do think we have a good chance in the US to be ok. The highish rate is now pulling a lot of money back from international market so we have enough money not to get a bank collapse, but I don't know about EU / Brit / China, they may get hit real hard if they can't figure out their own rates and repeat the Asian Financial Crisis.
Right now I have a feeling the institutionals are only propping up AI stocks and everything has gone down otherwise. I'm sitting on some short term T bill waiting for opportunities, and have been holding what I bought since 14-3 years ago not selling. I am waiting for a better deal than T bill at 5.3% the moment.
40 years ago no one would have ever believed that we would have an economy this resilient, with so many abusing it.... Both in the government and the citizenry.
I think the point is this is specific to your area and so you need to leave your area if you want to work. This is nothing new, there are always economically disadvantaged areas. There are plenty of areas with jobs but people will have to go to them.
It's not a matter of being a conspiracy theorist - good or bad the data is what it is until it's not and sometimes that just takes time and/or new data to be generated. It's not a conspiracy, it's a guess, and sometimes guesses will be correct and sometimes they will be wrong, so we're left waiting for better data.
I agree, this should be reported by the media. After all, it's actually a positive because it means the job market is cooling which was one of the goals of the rate hikes and it indicates we're getting closer to where we want to be.
You mix metaphors in a self-contradiction, here.
You state that working class Americans are forced to ensure the success of equities - I disagree. No one is “forced” to buy equities. 401(k) participation is a major middle class road to wealth, in the long run, but the choice of underlying investment is not “forced” in most cases. You could buy bonds, REITs, leave it in cash, or, yeah, equities.
So, while saying that people are “forced” to invest, you then state that they are eating their seed corn.
Well, which is it? Because investing is planting the seed corn.
So, are they forced to plant their seed corn (investing) or are they eating it?
GON
$100 Site Donor 2024
No different than student loan forgiveness. That is primarily being paid for by working people at the grocery store via inflation. Print money/ devalue currency is how the so-called student loan forgiveness is being paid for. Go to the grocery store and see your grocery bill up 30 percent year over year- primarily due to printing money/ devaluation of the USD.
Any Wisconsin construction worker who is out of a job should move to Madison, where they're building like there's no tomorrow.
Its an interesting discussion actually.
The top 10% do own 90% of equities. What might surprise you is the way the Fed defines the top 10% - its someone with a net worth >$850K as of the first of this year. So if your a boomer, who owns there home, and has a 401K - just about anywhere, your in the top 10% - by that definition.
So 401K's actually do buoy equity prices. There a passive bid that causes the continual melt up.
I could now get into some esoteric recent studies on convexity and how the passive bid has broken the efficient market theory, but that would put everyone to sleep....
GON
$100 Site Donor 2024
Yes, you are spot on with the first five words in your reply. What happens when we no longer can? What happens when someone is living off their generous credit card limits/ line of credit and they have maxed out their credit cards/ line of credit, and the interest alone on their debt far exceeds their income?
