What do you know, what I’ve been saying for months is accurate, lower hours
Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
You’ve added $12.3T to our debt and doubled the debt service. Our current national debt is $34.7T, not $47T. The debt service is $400B and change and no where near the $850B defense budget.
If we’re going to have an honest conversation here let’s not give into hyperbole.
Yeah, anyone who repeatedly uses the term “political elites” has an axe to grind and has questionable motivations. You realize this is actually good news and it’s the entire point of the rate hikes? Rates go up so jobs come down and the economy cools. If this is true, along with real GDP at 1.6% for Q1, we are much closer to the rate drops everyone so desperately wants.
You can’t have it both ways. You can’t get rid of hyperinflation while everyone is gainfully employed and spending money with a +4% GDP.
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4WD
$50 site donor 2024
99% ?
Yes, there are people of varying educational levels in the top 1% of earners and there are people with lots of education not in the top 1%. You get my gist…I wouldn’t be in the top 1% without my education and most people who have a comparable education are also in the top 1% of earners.
You make $800K / year?
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
We pay PhD’s in chemical engineering a 2% tax bracket - pretty tough degree in science … You make what you do as the owner …
All I’m going to say is maybe I’m top 1.8%.
My best friend has a PhD in chemical engineering from Cornell and as a department head at a local university she makes +$400k.
I know associate dentists who make $500k. They are paid mostly based on the collections they produce with their two hands but sure, there is some income that can be made as a business owner as well. On the other hand, it’s unlikely I own a dental practice without my education.
GON
$100 Site Donor 2024
This site concurs with @jhs914 post:
Interest Costs Just Surpassed Defense and Medicare | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
2024-05-10-In the first seven months of Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, spending on net interest has reached $514 billion, surpass
This is the actual budget request from the DoD website and they requested $842B for 2024 - pg 1-3.This site concurs with @jhs914 post:
Interest Costs Just Surpassed Defense and Medicare | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
2024-05-10-In the first seven months of Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, spending on net interest has reached $514 billion, surpasswww.crfb.org
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
That’s fine - I’m in 2% working half the year …
Only thought the 99% comment was odd …
I thought of teachers right then …
GON
$100 Site Donor 2024
Here is the National Defense Budget listed on the DoD website that concurs with @jhs914 post:
I think the delta may be DoD requested budget which may be significantly different than what is spent on National Defense. An example might be the cost of the Veterans' Administration- which is not part of the National Defense budget, but may be part of the DoD budget.
USAspending.gov
www.usaspending.gov
Interest amount will continue to increase. The old, lower yield debt rolls over and they re-issue at higher rates. They also re-issued a lot on short term T-bills recently. Interest on them is paid in full as they mature.Here is the National Defense Budget listed on the DoD website that concurs with @jhs914 post:
I think the delta may be DoD requested budget which may be significantly different than what is spent on National Defense. An example might be the cost of the Veterans' Administration- which is not part of the National Defense budget, but may be part of the DoD budget.
USAspending.gov
Won't surprise me if we get very close to $1T in this fiscal year.
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As I’ve said of that guy before he provides an excellent daily dose of gloom and doom to fall asleep to.
Like his politics or not (I don’t) his data is rarely off, the real hours worked going down for “a while “ matches exactly what I’ve been seeing. The reverse correction of several years of historical economic data also aligns with the fact that things haven’t been Rainbows, unicorns and Sunshine 2020 onward.
Folks loosing hours…
It is good and isn’t good
The wage earners going from 50 hours to 16 are the “wrong ones” in the wrong brackets to meaningfully affect inflation and are only responsible for inflation in specific categories and regions.
Land, Homes, power and food are not included as one of those categories.
Recently bailed out Investment houses are still supercharged with cash and will likely start mass purchases again as prices erode slightly and foreclosures increase .
The Fed is unlikely to thread the kneedle as it already would have needed to pivot a bit 6 months ago so no soft landing. Likely a very large recession waiting sometime in 2025.
More and more we are moving to a 2 world economy in the US.
The economic measures we have are similar but in a much grander scale
to Japan before it’s lost decade.
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Look, you have to start somewhere. You can’t cry about inflation and then see some positive movement and then cry it’s not coming down for everything. The land and home price inflation existed long before the current bout of hyperinflation and it has many different drivers and it will likely not respond to any the Fed’s measures in the same way as other goods/services because so many people are already locked into low interest rate mortgages. Even if home prices do come down due to interest rates expect it to be much slower and to come down much less.
You can’t support a family working those type of jobs….
By definition then, the soft landing narrative is over? Wasn't that the narrative - soft landing = decrease in inflation without the corresponding decline in jobs?
I never believed the raising the short end of the curve did anything in a world where banks have no reserve requirements and alternate funding sources. All it did was raise credit card interest and juice stocks somehow. Everything in the real world is priced on the longer end. If they really wanted to do something they would have drained their balance sheet.
The fed is a lagging indicator at best. There always wrong. They were wrong with transitory, they were wrong in December when they started talking about cutting - although I believe that was on purpose, and they will be wrong when they eventually cut.
Well, according to posts here we were headed for a huge recession, stock market crash, etc.
Soft landing is a slowing of the economy instead of a crash. So yes, your definition is appropriate.
Inflation has moderated and growth has remained remarkably strong.
The strong labor market continues to put upward pressure on inflation; the path to 2% inflation is difficult and not a straight line. This is a sign of economic strength, not weakness.
If the goal is 2% right now then crash the economy via very high unemployment / recession.
IMO, crashing the economy was a bad plan during 9%; at 3% there is simply no need to do so to reset inflation.
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