Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

First, thanks for posting your insights on the Vancouver market. I fly to Asia from Vancouver often and saw a large percentage of people of Chinese background, I didn't connect the dots as to how that has positively impacted Vancouver real estate prices.


A late reply to this but the story behind the influence of Chinese buyers in the Vancouver BC real estate market is a good one to research. The government had to enact a tax or equivalent to slow down the Chinese appetite. What happened after that was the move of Chinese buyers down into the Seattle-Tacoma market and others in the PNW. The Chinese were buying properties left and right.

My brother lives in Tacoma and the house next door went up for sale in around ten years or so ago. It was a 1920’s build and not in good shape. The real estate signs went up on a late Friday afternoon. At 0600 Saturday he was awakened by a crowd of 12-15 people, all Chinese. They were measuring and talking. By noon the signs were down.
 
Sg,

Thanks for posting the stats, helpful.

Some of the stats mean nothing, like time.on the market, average sales volume, etc. The only thing that matters is sales price. During the USA major inflation of the late 1970s, all the stats looked like what you posted, yeet prices increased every single year. The low sales volume, time on market, etc.... Did not equate to loss in sales price

Btw, likely be flying over your home in the next 45 minutes. And I am not in a balloon.
Yep. And here is the part on on Vancouver pricing.

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Sg,

Thanks for posting the stats, helpful.

Some of the stats mean nothing, like time.on the market, average sales volume, etc. The only thing that matters is sales price. During the USA major inflation of the late 1970s, all the stats looked like what you posted, yeet prices increased every single year. The low sales volume, time on market, etc.... Did not equate to loss in sales price

Btw, likely be flying over your home in the next 45 minutes. And I am not in a balloon.
I’ll wave.
 
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And for note, the home we sold last AUG 2022, in a state with a declining population for the past ten consecutive years, now on-line appraises for 12k USD more than we sold the home for. Here I though I "sold at the top", and I was wrong.... But very glad to have sold anyway.

Real estate selling prices are not falling in the 12 plus markets I am tracking. Every home I like put a "watch" on, goes under contract quickly, and always closes, these homes never have the deal fall through. Seems like if one has a nice home, it will sell for top dollar, likely very quickly.
 
Interest rates dont seem so high anymore. As of right now, Thursday 2/2/23 @ 4:49 Pm you can with one phone call get locked in at Bank of America for 5.37 @ 3/4 point
It does depend on region and terms but anyone can go to BOA and check home loan rates. I like that about them, everything is transparent.

Rates today are showing 6.44% at 30 years, with 800+ credit score and 20% down.

While 6% isn't "so bad" to someone my age (50's), it IS drastically worse than what we have all come to expect during the last decade.

It sure doesn't support $500k homes with less than $250k annual household income....
 
Rates today are showing 6.44% at 30 years, with 800+ credit score and 20% down.

While 6% isn't "so bad" to someone my age (50's), it IS drastically worse than what we have all come to expect during the last decade.

It sure doesn't support $500k homes with less than $250k annual household income....
This is a good site to check rates, transparent and you don’t have to enter private information and spend a lot of time just to find the rate.
If you like the rate and qualify they will lock you in right on the phone.
Also you dont need anything near a 250k household income for a 400k conforming mortgage on a 500K home. But yeah, the Fed is trying to make things more unaffordable to tame inflation, after all they created the mess by making loans and mortgages too cheap to begin with, now the public must pay.






I see they are going back up, it was a big drop from 7% I didnt think it would last. Looks like we bottomed and bounced back up!
Here is a calculator for those that dont know, not saying for you...

mortgage-calculator

and another
mortgage-calculator
 
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I travel to the Atlanta Metro area for business. I know a few people around the area. I could never figure out how people afford to live there. I understand silicon valley, but everything I have seen says wages in Atlanta aren't much more than anywhere else in the South.
Most people live in the suburbs.

In any case out of town transfers from more expensive locales brought with them a huge chunk of housing equity and larger salaries. That has had a huge impact on housing. Cost of living in Atlanta is only marginally more expensive vs Greenville SC and that's mostly due to higher rent.
 
There's a lot of houses being built in this area, ~30-40 miles south of Atlanta, that are $1M+

I've heard that many of them are sold for cash, to people, get ready, "who are moving here from California".

The most hated phrase in my area? "Hey, we just moved here from California!!". You don't hear it much anymore. Many of them were met with a very, very stern warning about how they need to make sure they conduct themselves properly each 1st Tuesday in November....

Tyler Perry has that big movie studio down there right?
 
Rates today are showing 6.44% at 30 years, with 800+ credit score and 20% down.
We got almost a full % below that, same terms and score. Dunno how regional rates are or whatever other factors are involved :unsure:

Definitely not as good as the 2.8% on our current home! Made deciding to hang onto it as a rental a pretty easy choice.
 
Tyler Perry has that big movie studio down there right?


Down where? Is the city of Atlanta down there? Yeah, he has a bunch of crap in Atlanta. I live 40 miles south of there, but in an area that has a heavy film industry presence. There’s a smaller film / production company that has a studio in this ~5500 pop town. There’s a mega plex of studios about 25 minutes from here. Yes, this area has a LOT of filming going on.

Are you suggesting lots of these stars are buying the houses and living 25’ from ordinary citizens?? Without a giant gate and fence around them? Not from what I know / see. My home is more like that, although we’ve never shut the gate….

Some of the +1M houses were “under contract” or sold (before construction), it’s taken 9+ months to build these things, probably because some of the materials were hard to get, so the finances are drastically different than when the signs went up on heavily wooded, uncleared lots.

It is gonna be interesting is all I can say.
 
Also you dont need anything near a 250k household income for a 400k conforming mortgage on a 500K home.


No, maybe not but IMO, looking around and also seeing what things cost, you had darn well be at $200k minimum.

$3300 house payment IF you put 20% down. That includes proper insurance and realistic property taxes.

Then there’s the two $600-800/mo car payments. I heard the AVERAGE monthly car insurance payment in GA right now is $200/month. Wow!

Then there’s utility bills, cell phone plans, new cell phones every 18 months, eating out, car maintenance, fuel, all the other payments, and if you have kids, another $800+ per month in expenses.

What about savings, retirement and saving for college? Does anyone count that anymore??

Oh yeah, income taxes aren’t zero when you’re making enough to qualify/pay a $3300 mortgage….
 
According to ChatGPT:

In general, housing affordability has decreased in many parts of the world over the past few decades. In the United States, for example, the median home price has increased faster than median household income, making it more difficult for many people to afford a home. This trend is driven by a number of factors, including rising land and building costs, limited housing supply in desirable areas, and changing consumer preferences.

In some countries, however, housing affordability has improved over the past few decades, especially in areas with high levels of new construction or areas that have experienced a slowdown in economic growth.

It's important to note that while the overall trend may be towards declining housing affordability, the specifics of the situation can vary widely depending on the location, the type of housing, and other local factors.
 
Down where? Is the city of Atlanta down there? Yeah, he has a bunch of crap in Atlanta. I live 40 miles south of there, but in an area that has a heavy film industry presence. There’s a smaller film / production company that has a studio in this ~5500 pop town. There’s a mega plex of studios about 25 minutes from here. Yes, this area has a LOT of filming going on.

Are you suggesting lots of these stars are buying the houses and living 25’ from ordinary citizens?? Without a giant gate and fence around them? Not from what I know / see. My home is more like that, although we’ve never shut the gate….

Some of the +1M houses were “under contract” or sold (before construction), it’s taken 9+ months to build these things, probably because some of the materials were hard to get, so the finances are drastically different than when the signs went up on heavily wooded, uncleared lots.

It is gonna be interesting is all I can say.
I mean near you. I'm in Cobb Co (see my profile).

I'm seeing a lot of money going south of town. Forsyth went through a similar thing 20 yrs ago. People looking for quieter place to put their $1MM home.
 
According to ChatGPT:

In general, housing affordability has decreased in many parts of the world over the past few decades. In the United States, for example, the median home price has increased faster than median household income, making it more difficult for many people to afford a home. This trend is driven by a number of factors, including rising land and building costs, limited housing supply in desirable areas, and changing consumer preferences.

In some countries, however, housing affordability has improved over the past few decades, especially in areas with high levels of new construction or areas that have experienced a slowdown in economic growth.

It's important to note that while the overall trend may be towards declining housing affordability, the specifics of the situation can vary widely depending on the location, the type of housing, and other local factors.
Homeownership rate in the USA is pretty much unchanged over the last 50 years. (5 decades) Lets not forget many young people now rather not own a home, they get married later too. Even with that said we can safely say homeownership is higher than anything before 1998 and in reality is ALWAYS within a 10% swing even during economic turmoil which seems reasonably stable compared to almost anything.
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Homeownership rate in the USA is pretty much unchanged over the last 50 years. (5 decades) Lets not forget many young people now rather not own a home, they get married later too. Even with that said we can safely say homeownership is higher than anything before 1998 and in reality is ALWAYS within a 10% swing even during economic turmoil which seems reasonably stable compared to almost anything.
This is a pretty shocking swing. In Q1 2020 it spiked 2 %, then dropped over the following 2 quarters back to where it was.

Anyone know why? Data anomaly?

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