a winter for the ages?

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Originally Posted By: Tempest

That 97% has been debunked many times by many people:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/...nsensus-claims/

Pure disinformation which is typical of AGW proponents.

You mean like computer models which have ALL been proven to be wrong? Or changing historical temperature records to make their case look better? Or.....


What is interesting is that the climate skeptics can't produce any actual data or papers to back up their claims. They purely attempt to discredit the scientific consensus by obfuscating and sometimes outright lies. It's all about trying to convince the public that the science isn't settled whereas the fact is that it is.

The following article is really revealing about how these people are engaging in debate.

http://gpwayne.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/climate-change-consensus-the-percentage-game/

I found the following parts really interesting:

Quote:
Displaying a rare regard for accuracy, climate change ‘skeptics’ point out that science is not done by consensus, and that’s nearly right. Science isn’t correct because the majority voted for it. While much science is never proved in the mathematical sense, it becomes an accepted part of the canon when nobody disputes it any longer, so compelling is the evidence that supports the theory: evolution is a perfect example, the ‘big bang’ theory another. And so too is climate change – there are few credible scientists who dispute the principle theories, choosing instead to indulge in ‘lukewarm’ opposition – it won’t get as hot as we think, or it won’t be as bad – that kind of stuff.


Quote:
There are numerous examples of how lobby groups have sought to instil doubt about science when it suits their paymasters. A good example is found in an extract from a memo written by Republican strategist Frank Luntz for then president George W. Bush. The topic was global warming. Despite admitting that “”The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science…” Luntz advised the Bush administration to sow doubt:

” Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate…”.


Quote:
Here we come to the core problem for the sceptical community. The easiest way to disprove the consensus isn’t by taking issue with previous papers, because that doesn’t achieve anything. As a recent statement signed by 41academics pointed out (in relation to a different academic dispute):

Above all, we urge scholars with criticisms of each other’s work to pursue them through the normal channels of academic debate. If you doubt another researcher’s results, try to replicate the analysis, and then publish your findings. If you don’t like a published article, publish a better one.

And there it is, the one avenue not available to the skeptics. They can’t ‘publish a better one’ and indeed, they’ve never tried. Why not? Because if they launched a survey of climate scientists – all the scientists who had published anything on climate change in the last decade, for example – they know perfectly well that their survey would replicate the findings of all the previous ones.

The whole issue is propaganda of the worst kind. The most obvious way to prove there is a lack of consensus – a credible survey – is the one method the skeptics cannot employ, and have never attempted (except if you count meretricious [censored] like The Oregon Petition). It should not be necessary to elaborate this point, nor hammer home the clear message, but here it is anyway: the fastest and most effective way to demonstrate the lack of consensus would be to publish a peer-reviewed survey that proved its absence. I leave you to ponder why the dissemblers and doubters have never done so.
 
Now, you are proof of exactly what you preach.

Climate skeptics? Climate deniers? Simplistic labels. Political chaff by and for the simpletons.

I could call you a "warmist", or a "climate alarmist", but I tend to exercise a little respect for other's views.

And referencing cherry picked sites with known bents as AGW debunking schools, like Skeptical Science, is no better than citing the DNC on economic policy. Stephen Baines? Do you quote Paul Krugman on economics, too?

Others from the other side run to Wattsup, and their debunking sites and appointed "experts" too. Yours are driven by big government liberals, theirs by big energy conservatives. It's no longer science.

Let me guess, you also read the WP and NYT and LAT, but never the WashTimes.

Seriously, you're acting like the poster child for why this debate is unfixable.

Unless you're one of foot soldiers, think for yourself man, stop drinking the Koolaid, and parroting the prerecorded narratives they feed. Otherwise, the brainwashing is complete.

Right now, the only thing that is clear and conceded by BOTH sides is this: The temp data for nearly 20 years doesn't fit the AGW model. I guess that's a problem for your team. AGW proponents are now resorting to labeling the flat line a "pause", have relabeled their cause from "global warming" to "climate change", and are feverishly struggling to explain away the AGW model failure with dozens of reasons. Lots of simplistic labels being used by them. The latest explanation is that all the added heat sunk to the bottom of the ocean. Meanwhile, global mean temps are not only flat, but starting to decline at higher latitudes, which AGW proponents also concede, ignore, and/or explain away.
 
Originally Posted By: Apollo14
I'm sorry but there are just too many smart people in public non profit roles eg universities, in industry, in major companies with a lot of intellect (eg Google and lots of CEOs), in too many countries, and there are too many negative incidences of climate change eg islands who are facing imminent loss of habitability due to rising sea levels, that I will take all that expertise and evidence over posters with far lesser backgrounds saying "sun spots".


Your own words speak a great deal about where you get your information, how much you've thought about it, and your hiearchy (sp?) of deference on the subject at hand.

Do you realize this? Are you able to see it? I don't even know you but I can tell just by your words. Amazing, isn't it?

You've elevated these 'geniuses' to be beyond reproach or critical thought. That 'they' have 'our' and 'your' best interests in mind. Nothing could be further from the Truth. I suggest reading about the geniuses at Enron. How'd that work out? "The smartest guys in the room?". What happened to Bernard Ebbers? Bernard Madoff? Michael Milkin? Ivan Boesky? Paul Ehrlich? Do some searching on "Massive Fraud" and read up.

Ivory-tower intellectuals, holding the 'chair' of this and that are not above reproach. That's dangerous. Fudging data to fit 'the curve' is unethical and deceit. You believe Google to be in this crowd? WTH?

You're attempting to gather all of your sources under one net with what you've written above. Sea levels rise and fall...with every Moon cycle. Habitats do change, so does the weather. After all, it's a non-linear, dynamic system, driven by the Sun and moderated by the fact that nearly 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by saltwater. Water has a very high specific heat and that's a good thing.

Man is capable of hunting some species into extinction. No doubt. But the fact remains that most of the species that have ever walked the Earth are already extinct. However, it's a far stretch to elevate Man to a God-like-level by saying he has the power to destroy the climate and therefore the Earth. Bravo Sierra. Pure huberous and narcissistic. Nothing Man has ever created has the destructive force, nor climate impact of a single volcano. Nothing. If the 'climate' was that fragile, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Go look up Krakatoa and Tambora.

Modern man is only about 35,000 years old. Mother Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old. Who do you think rules?

Comments like this are a true indicator of the lack of knowledge regarding the scientific process..and the folly of Man. Science is the pursuit of Truth. Painstaking, day-by-day work trying to understand why this is, why it works, why it behaves the way it does. A great puzzle. Man trying to understand the Great Intelligence of the Universe, if you will.

The Periodic Table didn't get that way by decree. Chemists paid for it with their lives, their eyes, and their hands.

Galileo dared to confront the True Believers in Power at the time and paid a heavy price for it. After all, who was he to challenge "them"? How dare he? Based upon what? Something he saw in a 2" piece of glass? How properous!

The reality is he made them dam nervous, threatened their power, authority, position and legitimacy as the powers-that-be. They didn't like that so they employed shame, humilliation and embarrassment to attack him.

Guess who was right?

A similar thing happened with Tesla and Edison. The later staked his reputation on direct current, DC. Tesla went with alternating current, AC. Edison didn't like this so he tortured & killed animals with AC to prove how dangerous it was. He also lobbied the govn't to have Tesla shut down. Edison's DC motors had to use commutators, which sparked and required frequent maintainence. An induction motor uses no commutator, and runs on polyphase current. Much more efficient. Read up on the war of the currents.

Tesla had facts on his side and won out. AC is used throughout the world. DC still has it's place. But we don't transmit power across the country with it because the penalty is too high.

I suggest you cultivate a more skeptical-eye towards the "powers that be" that you've elevated to such lofty status. I'd also suggest that you read "The True Believer: Thoughts on the nature of Mass Movements" by Eric Hoffer and "The Vision of The Annointed" by Thomas Sowell. Both can explain it far better than I.
 
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/grand-view-4-billion-years-climate-change

"At this scale, there is really no apparent correlation between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. What's more, there have been ice ages when CO2 has been as much as 10 to 15 times higher than modern levels (for example the end-Ordovician Ice Age). There have also been times when temperature was increasing but CO2 was decreasing and times when CO2 was increasing but temperatures decreasing (during the Silurian and Devonian and during the Triassic and Jurassic, respectively).

The dip in CO2 levels at the end of the Carboniferous and into the Permian can be attributed to the over active coal swamps that were busy accumulating the thick coal seams that provide energy for much of the world's power generation today. That dip persisted throughout the great Karoo Ice Age (360-260 mya) but started to rise following the Permian-Triassic Extinction (251 mya). Many have speculated that ice ages are a cause of ancient mass extinction events and there may be a connection. The timing of know extinction events is shown in the biodiversity graph below."

http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=12&secNum=3

"Throughout much of its 4.5 billion year history, Earth's climate has alternated between periods of warmth and relative cold, each lasting for tens to hundreds of millions of years. During the warmest periods, the polar regions of the world were completely free of ice. Earth also has experienced repeated ice ages—periods lasting for millions of years, during which ice sheets advanced and retreated many times over portions of the globe. During the most extreme cold phases, snow and ice covered the entire globe (for more details, see Unit 1, "Many Planets, One Earth")."

Despite that CO2 levels have fluctuated long before humans inhabited the Earth and greenhouse gasses had extremely little influence on global temperature extremes the nuclear furnace called the Sun is by far the most influential factor on the Earth's climate. Sorry the data of 4.5 billion years does jive with your agenda.
 
Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Now, you are proof of exactly what you preach.

Climate skeptics? Climate deniers? Simplistic labels. Political chaff by and for the simpletons.

I could call you a "warmist", or a "climate alarmist", but I tend to exercise a little respect for other's views.


Well you kind of have now labelled me while claiming you weren't! I note you called me a simpleton as well and then said you "tend to exercise a little respect for other's views", "little" being the operative word it seems.

Originally Posted By: Volvohead
And referencing cherry picked sites with known bents as AGW debunking schools, like Skeptical Science, is no better than citing the DNC on economic policy. Stephen Baines? Do you quote Paul Krugman on economics, too?


Actually, I went through the comments pages where the skeptics gave their best arguments, often cherry picking data, and were consistently schooled. Many times the skeptics resorted to insults. The host responded to them with grace as did many others, trying to educate them with facts and pointing out the flaws in their cherry picking and letting them know which things had already been accounted for.

As to Economics, I am a big fan of many economists from Keynes to Hayek, even Friedman at times. They all speak many truths. Krugman too. If I agree with something they say, doesn't mean I agree with everything they say.

But why do you bring up Krugman in a climate discussion? Because he is left wing?

Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Others from the other side run to Wattsup, and their debunking sites and appointed "experts" too. Yours are driven by big government liberals, theirs by big energy conservatives. It's no longer science.


The difference is that the other side never produce independent data. All they do is try to debunk. That's the difference. All I see are statements that it's sunspots, show the data and get it peer reviewed. Come up with a better explanation.

Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Let me guess, you also read the WP and NYT and LAT, but never the WashTimes.


I don't make a point of reading any of those. Again, why are you bringing this up?

Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Seriously, you're acting like the poster child for why this debate is unfixable.

Unless you're one of foot soldiers, think for yourself man, stop drinking the Koolaid, and parroting the prerecorded narratives they feed. Otherwise, the brainwashing is complete.


I think comments like this are problematic. All we've had in this thread are cherry picking of data and statements that sunspots are the cause. No links to any peer reviewed studies with data to support the sunspot theory!

Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Right now, the only thing that is clear and conceded by BOTH sides is this: The temp data for nearly 20 years doesn't fit the AGW model. I guess that's a problem for your team. AGW proponents are now resorting to labeling the flat line a "pause", have relabeled their cause from "global warming" to "climate change", and are feverishly struggling to explain away the AGW model failure with dozens of reasons. Lots of simplistic labels being used by them. The latest explanation is that all the added heat sunk to the bottom of the ocean. Meanwhile, global mean temps are not only flat, but starting to decline at higher latitudes, which AGW proponents also concede, ignore, and/or explain away.


Thinking for myself, I have to ask why should I believe you? You provide no sources of peer reviewed scientific studies to back up your points, you bring up the irrelevant accusation that "global warming" has been relabelled "climate change", you've focused on the issue of "labels" several times now. You sound awfully like the debunkers on the "right" who you've claimed to be the equivalent of the debunkers on the "left".

Something else that speaks volumes to me in terms of credibility is how China is reacting to all of this. China has been by far the most successful country in the history of man to raise people out of poverty of the last several decades. Now it has become the biggest investor in clean and renewable energy sources. Do you think they've done their own science and reviewed the global science or do you think this is all about lobbyists and left wing vested interests?
 
Originally Posted By: sleddriver
Your own words speak a great deal about where you get your information, how much you've thought about it, and your hiearchy (sp?) of deference on the subject at hand.

Do you realize this? Are you able to see it? I don't even know you but I can tell just by your words. Amazing, isn't it?

You've elevated these 'geniuses' to be beyond reproach or critical thought. That 'they' have 'our' and 'your' best interests in mind. Nothing could be further from the Truth. I suggest reading about the geniuses at Enron. How'd that work out? "The smartest guys in the room?". What happened to Bernard Ebbers? Bernard Madoff? Michael Milkin? Ivan Boesky? Paul Ehrlich? Do some searching on "Massive Fraud" and read up.

Ivory-tower intellectuals, holding the 'chair' of this and that are not above reproach. That's dangerous. Fudging data to fit 'the curve' is unethical and deceit. You believe Google to be in this crowd? WTH?

You're attempting to gather all of your sources under one net with what you've written above. Sea levels rise and fall...with every Moon cycle. Habitats do change, so does the weather. After all, it's a non-linear, dynamic system, driven by the Sun and moderated by the fact that nearly 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by saltwater. Water has a very high specific heat and that's a good thing.

Man is capable of hunting some species into extinction. No doubt. But the fact remains that most of the species that have ever walked the Earth are already extinct. However, it's a far stretch to elevate Man to a God-like-level by saying he has the power to destroy the climate and therefore the Earth. Bravo Sierra. Pure huberous and narcissistic. Nothing Man has ever created has the destructive force, nor climate impact of a single volcano. Nothing. If the 'climate' was that fragile, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Go look up Krakatoa and Tambora.

Modern man is only about 35,000 years old. Mother Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old. Who do you think rules?

Comments like this are a true indicator of the lack of knowledge regarding the scientific process..and the folly of Man. Science is the pursuit of Truth. Painstaking, day-by-day work trying to understand why this is, why it works, why it behaves the way it does. A great puzzle. Man trying to understand the Great Intelligence of the Universe, if you will.

The Periodic Table didn't get that way by decree. Chemists paid for it with their lives, their eyes, and their hands.

Galileo dared to confront the True Believers in Power at the time and paid a heavy price for it. After all, who was he to challenge "them"? How dare he? Based upon what? Something he saw in a 2" piece of glass? How properous!

The reality is he made them dam nervous, threatened their power, authority, position and legitimacy as the powers-that-be. They didn't like that so they employed shame, humilliation and embarrassment to attack him.

Guess who was right?

A similar thing happened with Tesla and Edison. The later staked his reputation on direct current, DC. Tesla went with alternating current, AC. Edison didn't like this so he tortured & killed animals with AC to prove how dangerous it was. He also lobbied the govn't to have Tesla shut down. Edison's DC motors had to use commutators, which sparked and required frequent maintainence. An induction motor uses no commutator, and runs on polyphase current. Much more efficient. Read up on the war of the currents.

Tesla had facts on his side and won out. AC is used throughout the world. DC still has it's place. But we don't transmit power across the country with it because the penalty is too high.

I suggest you cultivate a more skeptical-eye towards the "powers that be" that you've elevated to such lofty status. I'd also suggest that you read "The True Believer: Thoughts on the nature of Mass Movements" by Eric Hoffer and "The Vision of The Annointed" by Thomas Sowell. Both can explain it far better than I.


There is so much presumption in what you write, yet there is no reference to any peer reviewed scientific study to support your point of view.

And there is so much rhetoric and contradiction as well as further presumption. There are scientists who are working for decades in a painstaking way to get to the truth, but you characterize the people who are worried about climate change as beholden to ivory tower intellectuals.

And then there are the references to scientific greats with a suggestion that now there is also some great mastermind who is not being believed. Yet you offer no name as a credible climate change skeptic, as a leading light, that mystical modern day scientific hero who has all the facts sown up about why the dangerous climate change we are seeing is not man made.

And I would love it if that person did exist. I would love to see that person splashed across the media, educating the masses with incontrovertible evidence as his mighty sword. Oh how wonderful it would be if we didn't have to change. Life would be so much simpler.

Yes, I see through your rhetoric. It's part of my independent thinking.

There was one thing in your piece that came close to being a claimed fact and that was all about volcanos. So now why don't you back that up with hard facts?

Or do I need to go here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/Two-attempts-to-blame-global-warming-on-volcanoes.html

Waiting for those facts or if you prefer a well reasoned, non rhetoric laden rebuttal to that article.
 
China is doing great! 63% of the population makes less than $5 a day. This is over 900 million people this is an wonderful job of bringing its population out of poverty.

You have provided another example of Governments footing the bill and controlling investment with your China analogy and renewable energy.
 
The climate changes, its always changed. The seas were once much higher that they are now. Man causing this in only 100 years, i don't buy it.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: dave1251
China is doing great! 63% of the population makes less than $5 a day. This is over 900 million people this is an wonderful job of bringing its population out of poverty.

You have provided another example of Governments footing the bill and controlling investment with your China analogy and renewable energy.


http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/04/18/heres-how-much-poverty-has-declined-in-china/

OB-XC741_POVERT_E_20130417171914.jpg
 
Originally Posted By: spasm3
The climate changes, its always changed. The seas were once much higher that they are now. Man causing this in only 100 years, i don't buy it.


So sleddriver, how about a rhetoric laden response to this statement? You could even use Galileo to make your argument.
 
Originally Posted By: dave1251
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/grand-view-4-billion-years-climate-change

"At this scale, there is really no apparent correlation between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. What's more, there have been ice ages when CO2 has been as much as 10 to 15 times higher than modern levels (for example the end-Ordovician Ice Age). There have also been times when temperature was increasing but CO2 was decreasing and times when CO2 was increasing but temperatures decreasing (during the Silurian and Devonian and during the Triassic and Jurassic, respectively).

The dip in CO2 levels at the end of the Carboniferous and into the Permian can be attributed to the over active coal swamps that were busy accumulating the thick coal seams that provide energy for much of the world's power generation today. That dip persisted throughout the great Karoo Ice Age (360-260 mya) but started to rise following the Permian-Triassic Extinction (251 mya). Many have speculated that ice ages are a cause of ancient mass extinction events and there may be a connection. The timing of know extinction events is shown in the biodiversity graph below."

http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=12&secNum=3

"Throughout much of its 4.5 billion year history, Earth's climate has alternated between periods of warmth and relative cold, each lasting for tens to hundreds of millions of years. During the warmest periods, the polar regions of the world were completely free of ice. Earth also has experienced repeated ice ages—periods lasting for millions of years, during which ice sheets advanced and retreated many times over portions of the globe. During the most extreme cold phases, snow and ice covered the entire globe (for more details, see Unit 1, "Many Planets, One Earth")."

Despite that CO2 levels have fluctuated long before humans inhabited the Earth and greenhouse gasses had extremely little influence on global temperature extremes the nuclear furnace called the Sun is by far the most influential factor on the Earth's climate. Sorry the data of 4.5 billion years does jive with your agenda.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm

Quote:
But there have been several times in Earth’s past when Earth's temperature jumped abruptly, in much the same way as they are doing today. Those times were caused by large and rapid greenhouse gas emissions, just like humans are causing today.

Those abrupt global warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as at the end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian periods. The symptoms from those events (a big, rapid jump in global temperatures, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification) are all happening today with human-caused climate change.

So yes, the climate has changed before humans, and in most cases scientists know why. In all cases we see the same association between CO2 levels and global temperatures. And past examples of rapid carbon emissions (just like today) were generally highly destructive to life on Earth.
 
Originally Posted By: dave1251
. . . You have provided another example of Governments footing the bill and controlling investment with your China analogy and renewable energy.


Dave, I would only add one clarification to that.

Governments NEVER foot the bill - the taxpayer does.

Sadly, the taxpayer is becoming an increasingly endangered species.

When do taxpayers get protection like the Delta Smelts?
 
Apollo14, stop with the Skeptical Science already.

You've completely exposed yourself and where you stand on this.

But now that you've exposed yourself, no blankets for you when it gets cold!
 
Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Governments NEVER foot the bill - the taxpayer does.


Yep I agree. Pity we don't get this inquisitive about the MIC and the accounting for our war spending (let alone responsibility for taking us to war).

But I must ask, are you agreeing with Dave that China hasn't been spectacularly effective at reducing poverty?
 
Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Apollo14, stop with the Skeptical Science already.

You've completely exposed yourself and where you stand on this.

But now that you've exposed yourself, no blankets for you when it gets cold!


Lol. Well as soon as you produce the peer reviewed science then I will consider a blanket sharing agreement.

And I remain persuadable. Just give me the scientific proof that has been peer reviewed and not vague statements and rhetoric.
 
Originally Posted By: Apollo14
Originally Posted By: Volvohead
Governments NEVER foot the bill - the taxpayer does.


Yep I agree. Pity we don't get this inquisitive about the MIC and the accounting for our war spending (let alone responsibility for taking us to war).

But I must ask, are you agreeing with Dave that China hasn't been spectacularly effective at reducing poverty?



There is nothing to agree about. Learn to actually research your position before you post about it.

Live less than $1.25 a day 11.8% (157 million)
Live less than $2 a day 27.2% (362 million)
Live less than $2.5 a day 36.5% (486 million)
Live less than $4 a day 58% (772 million)
Live less than $5 a day 67.8% (902 million)

Source world bank.

The Chinese median income is 10K a year. The average Chinese citizen has such a great standard of living I suggest you move there. The added bonus is you get to live in a country that apparently matches your personal standard of living especially "green" technology.
 
I doubt it. At least carnoobie admitted he could not find a date on Saturday. This guy argues the sky is blue according to him it must be indigo because there is not enough evidence the sky is blue.
 
Apollo14,

If your team's wrong, Al Gore, Michael Mann and Phil Jones should be exiled to Antarctica -- in their underwear.

And no, I will not share our blankets with you when that happens. Our two Goldens leave hardly a corner for me and the wife already.
 
Originally Posted By: dave1251
There is nothing to agree about. Learn to actually research your position before you post about it.

Live less than $1.25 a day 11.8% (157 million)
Live less than $2 a day 27.2% (362 million)
Live less than $2.5 a day 36.5% (486 million)
Live less than $4 a day 58% (772 million)
Live less than $5 a day 67.8% (902 million)

Source world bank.

The Chinese median income is 10K a year. The average Chinese citizen has such a great standard of living I suggest you move there. The added bonus is you get to live in a country that apparently matches your personal standard of living especially "green" technology.


Dave, please tell me where I talked about it being great to live in China? All I said was that China has made spectacular strides in moving people out of poverty.

OB-XC741_POVERT_E_20130417171914.jpg

That's all. Don't know why you feel the need to tell me to go and live in China!

I'm happy in California. One of the most innovative places in the world, not without it's flaws but now has a balanced budget. Great weather and high incomes. A mind opening environment with and without drugs.
 
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