20-40 year prediction of the auto industry
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In many science fiction movies there is an underclass that makes due with old equipment. Might it be possible when the self driving cars are obsolete the electronics package is deactivated and the poor folks drive them manually. By the way, whatever happened to all the 64 Chevys?
I am hoping we transition away from car concentric landscapes and move to more drop off models.
When I travel for work I simply prefer using uber or taxi then renting a car.
When I travel for work I simply prefer using uber or taxi then renting a car.
Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
In many science fiction movies there is an underclass that makes due with old equipment. Might it be possible when the self driving cars are obsolete the electronics package is deactivated and the poor folks drive them manually. By the way, whatever happened to all the 64 Chevys?
In the real world, there is an underclass that makes do with old equipment and you see this on the streets every day.
It is the huge availability of used cars that enables lower income folks to own them as well as the good durability and reliability modern vehicles offer.
Addressing some of the points made above, not you in particular:
1. We'll see more consolidation in the industry simply because it's a mature one and there is no killer app potential. The only way in which companies can grow and defend their businesses is through acquisition.
2. In large and densely populated cities, car ownership has been more of a liability than an asset for years. In places like NYC, you walk, take the subway or use a cab or car service. If you want to go somewhere for a week or weekend, you rent a car or you fly. Car ownership will remain a necessity for most who live in flyover country as well as in metro areas sprawled out over many square miles where the opportunity to walk anywhere is limited as is public transit. Think Atlanta, Houston or Dallas.
3. Vehicle demand will likely continue to grow as more folks in the developing world gain the resources to buy and operate motor vehicles. Fuel economy improvements as well as EVs will make petroleum supplies less of a problems than one might think. There will eventually have to be a nuclear future for power generation to enable widespread EV use. In the case of driverless cars called on an app, these will basically replace cabs on a one to one basis, so they aren't likely to cause any great loss in demand and they'll wear out as well. There are also times when I'd be happy to have my personal vehicle operate in an autonomous mode, like long interstate slogs with lots of big rigs clogging up the road.
In many science fiction movies there is an underclass that makes due with old equipment. Might it be possible when the self driving cars are obsolete the electronics package is deactivated and the poor folks drive them manually. By the way, whatever happened to all the 64 Chevys?
In the real world, there is an underclass that makes do with old equipment and you see this on the streets every day.
It is the huge availability of used cars that enables lower income folks to own them as well as the good durability and reliability modern vehicles offer.
Addressing some of the points made above, not you in particular:
1. We'll see more consolidation in the industry simply because it's a mature one and there is no killer app potential. The only way in which companies can grow and defend their businesses is through acquisition.
2. In large and densely populated cities, car ownership has been more of a liability than an asset for years. In places like NYC, you walk, take the subway or use a cab or car service. If you want to go somewhere for a week or weekend, you rent a car or you fly. Car ownership will remain a necessity for most who live in flyover country as well as in metro areas sprawled out over many square miles where the opportunity to walk anywhere is limited as is public transit. Think Atlanta, Houston or Dallas.
3. Vehicle demand will likely continue to grow as more folks in the developing world gain the resources to buy and operate motor vehicles. Fuel economy improvements as well as EVs will make petroleum supplies less of a problems than one might think. There will eventually have to be a nuclear future for power generation to enable widespread EV use. In the case of driverless cars called on an app, these will basically replace cabs on a one to one basis, so they aren't likely to cause any great loss in demand and they'll wear out as well. There are also times when I'd be happy to have my personal vehicle operate in an autonomous mode, like long interstate slogs with lots of big rigs clogging up the road.
The subscription service is interesting but I wonder how people will treat a car that isn't theirs? The "I don't care" attitude is pervasive these days. I see getting into a car that is trashed, puked in, or drug usage obvious.
It's bad enough in Seattle that bus riders sit on used needles and have to check seats before sitting.
It's bad enough in Seattle that bus riders sit on used needles and have to check seats before sitting.
A lot of what happens in 40 years will depend on the success/failure of fusion powered energy generation. We've all be hearing since the 70's and 80's that fusion generation is being worked on and when it arrives, it will be the answer to all our problems. There's a real chance we will actually have a yes or no answer in the next 10 years.
There are about four major R&D initiatives (with the support of many impressive think-tanks), working on competing technologies that have reached sustained and controlled reactions. These test environments are not designed to generate electricity profitably; rather, they are stepping-stone platforms similar to how there were numerous launches in the Mercury spacecraft program, that lead to multiple launches in Apollo-class craft before finally achieving successful manned lunar landings. Basically, a viable plan of action is outlined and underway. [Knowing all too well that "humans make plans -and the gods laugh"].
There are two particular technologies being pitted against each-other. The test results are impressive. I personally feel that fusion generation is no longer a question of "if" it will happen but, "when" it will happen. When it happens is not precisely known but, safe bets can be made about what decade it will happen. I personally think significant scale commercial generation will begin in 30 years.
My prediction is that gasoline/electric hybrids will continue to become popular for 10-20 years. Pure electric cars will also become popular but, in 10-20 years, electric utility companies will be strapped to the limit and the cost of a kilowatt will level-out the demand for the cars. In 30-40 years, fusion generation will (LOL) "solve all our problems". By then, I'll be dead or too old to be held responsible for this prediction.
Ray
There are about four major R&D initiatives (with the support of many impressive think-tanks), working on competing technologies that have reached sustained and controlled reactions. These test environments are not designed to generate electricity profitably; rather, they are stepping-stone platforms similar to how there were numerous launches in the Mercury spacecraft program, that lead to multiple launches in Apollo-class craft before finally achieving successful manned lunar landings. Basically, a viable plan of action is outlined and underway. [Knowing all too well that "humans make plans -and the gods laugh"].
There are two particular technologies being pitted against each-other. The test results are impressive. I personally feel that fusion generation is no longer a question of "if" it will happen but, "when" it will happen. When it happens is not precisely known but, safe bets can be made about what decade it will happen. I personally think significant scale commercial generation will begin in 30 years.
My prediction is that gasoline/electric hybrids will continue to become popular for 10-20 years. Pure electric cars will also become popular but, in 10-20 years, electric utility companies will be strapped to the limit and the cost of a kilowatt will level-out the demand for the cars. In 30-40 years, fusion generation will (LOL) "solve all our problems". By then, I'll be dead or too old to be held responsible for this prediction.
Ray
Another leveling factor for electric is when it is common enough that the power companies no longer have to "play nice". Once they know that everything has gone far enough that they can abuse the customer base, they will certainly do so.
Once people realize they have gone out of the frying pan into the fire, things could change.
Once people realize they have gone out of the frying pan into the fire, things could change.
Originally Posted by zzyzzx
Originally Posted by philipp10
IUsing subscription based services will more than halve yearly automobile output....sharing cars through subscription will mean fewer are necessary.
.
Using this logic, subscription service cars and Uber cars never wear out.
no what I am saying is, many cars die of age, not use. Mine gets very few miles a year. It will die of the red cancer...rust
Originally Posted by philipp10
IUsing subscription based services will more than halve yearly automobile output....sharing cars through subscription will mean fewer are necessary.
.
Using this logic, subscription service cars and Uber cars never wear out.
no what I am saying is, many cars die of age, not use. Mine gets very few miles a year. It will die of the red cancer...rust
While we're at it let's look at the last 40 years: 1978-2018
- unleaded gas
- fuel injection
- a/c pretty much became standard
- more gears in transmissions
- ethanol in gasoline
- electric windows became pretty much standard
- some digital dashboards
- VVT
- Cylinder deactivation
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent
- Much better motor oil including synthetic
- Radial Ply tires
- air bags including side air bags
- hybrids
- electric cars (yes I know they were around in the early 1900's)
- lane warning systems
- automatic braking
- start of autonomous cars
What wasn't improved much?
-Price
- water pumps
- alternators
What did I miss?
- unleaded gas
- fuel injection
- a/c pretty much became standard
- more gears in transmissions
- ethanol in gasoline
- electric windows became pretty much standard
- some digital dashboards
- VVT
- Cylinder deactivation
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent
- Much better motor oil including synthetic
- Radial Ply tires
- air bags including side air bags
- hybrids
- electric cars (yes I know they were around in the early 1900's)
- lane warning systems
- automatic braking
- start of autonomous cars
What wasn't improved much?
-Price
- water pumps
- alternators
What did I miss?
Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
While we're at it let's look at the last 40 years: 1978-2018
- unleaded gas
- fuel injection
- a/c pretty much became standard
- more gears in transmissions
- ethanol in gasoline
- electric windows became pretty much standard
- some digital dashboards
- VVT
- Cylinder deactivation
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent
- Much better motor oil including synthetic
- Radial Ply tires
- air bags including side air bags
- hybrids
- electric cars (yes I know they were around in the early 1900's)
- lane warning systems
- automatic braking
- start of autonomous cars
What wasn't improved much?
-Price
- water pumps
- alternators
What did I miss?
One point I don't agree with. I don't agree motor oil have really improved all that much. Engines last longer due to raw fuel NOT running down the cylinder walls from poor carburetors....
While we're at it let's look at the last 40 years: 1978-2018
- unleaded gas
- fuel injection
- a/c pretty much became standard
- more gears in transmissions
- ethanol in gasoline
- electric windows became pretty much standard
- some digital dashboards
- VVT
- Cylinder deactivation
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent
- Much better motor oil including synthetic
- Radial Ply tires
- air bags including side air bags
- hybrids
- electric cars (yes I know they were around in the early 1900's)
- lane warning systems
- automatic braking
- start of autonomous cars
What wasn't improved much?
-Price
- water pumps
- alternators
What did I miss?
One point I don't agree with. I don't agree motor oil have really improved all that much. Engines last longer due to raw fuel NOT running down the cylinder walls from poor carburetors....
Engine oil is way better now than it was in 1978.
What wasn't improved much?
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
Originally Posted by Ducked
What wasn't improved much?
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
Sounds like you need a horse.
What wasn't improved much?
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
Sounds like you need a horse.
Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by Ducked
What wasn't improved much?
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
Sounds like you need a horse.
They kick.
And you can't usually fix them with cable ties
Originally Posted by Ducked
What wasn't improved much?
- a/c pretty much became standard (wastes fuel, never use it)
- ethanol in gasoline (Don't have it. Thought y'all hated it?)
- electric windows became pretty much standard (Don't like them. They break)
- some digital dashboards (Don't like them. They break)
- VVT (Don't have it. It probably breaks)
- Cylinder deactivation (Don't have it. Only have 3 anyway. Thought y'all hated it?)
- Turbo charging and Supercharging became more prevalent (Don't have it. It breaks.Thought y'all hated it as a threat to the V8?)
- Much better motor oil including synthetic (OK, though I seem to be doing just fine on Group 1)
- electric cars (Limited practicality ATPIT)
- start of autonomous cars (Never buy the "start of" ANYTHING)
Sounds like you need a horse.
They kick.
And you can't usually fix them with cable ties
True plus you would have to carry a shovel if you are in the city.
I grew up with hand crank windows and pull out chokes. The cars of today are far more reliable than those of yesteryear. Air conditioning was solely a third party add on back in the day. Today's ac is very fuel efficient. I haven't noticed any change in fuel economy on our Mazda with it on or off.
I will gladly take VVT and CD over yesterday's maintenance of plugs, points, rotors, etc. and lousy carbs
I grew up with hand crank windows and pull out chokes. The cars of today are far more reliable than those of yesteryear. Air conditioning was solely a third party add on back in the day. Today's ac is very fuel efficient. I haven't noticed any change in fuel economy on our Mazda with it on or off.
I will gladly take VVT and CD over yesterday's maintenance of plugs, points, rotors, etc. and lousy carbs
Originally Posted by PimTac
True plus you would have to carry a shovel if you are in the city.
I grew up with hand crank windows and pull out chokes. The cars of today are far more reliable than those of yesteryear. Air conditioning was solely a third party add on back in the day. Today's ac is very fuel efficient. I haven't noticed any change in fuel economy on our Mazda with it on or off.
I will gladly take VVT and CD over yesterday's maintenance of plugs, points, rotors, etc. and lousy carbs
You could be right. I dunno, cos I've got no real standard of comparison.
When I've owned and driven a 32 year old neglected Taiwan car, with VVT, that is still going, then I'll have to concede that you have a point.
(CD? I thought everyone used MP3 these days.)
True plus you would have to carry a shovel if you are in the city.
I grew up with hand crank windows and pull out chokes. The cars of today are far more reliable than those of yesteryear. Air conditioning was solely a third party add on back in the day. Today's ac is very fuel efficient. I haven't noticed any change in fuel economy on our Mazda with it on or off.
I will gladly take VVT and CD over yesterday's maintenance of plugs, points, rotors, etc. and lousy carbs
You could be right. I dunno, cos I've got no real standard of comparison.
When I've owned and driven a 32 year old neglected Taiwan car, with VVT, that is still going, then I'll have to concede that you have a point.
(CD? I thought everyone used MP3 these days.)
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