20-40 year prediction of the auto industry

[philipp10]

I like to think about the future a lot. Been thinking about the auto industry. I predict:

In 20 years 1/3-1/2 of all auto manufacturing companies will cease to exist. In 40 years maybe 1 out of 3 will be with us. Why? Because self driving cars combined with mellennial's use of driver-less subscription services will relegate the automobile to the appliance category. There will of course be some boutique companies....but the majors will be down sized and merged. Using subscription based services will more than halve yearly automobile output....sharing cars through subscription will mean fewer are necessary.

Now does anyone want to tell me why I am full of baloney?

 

[skyactiv]

Will the new driverless carriages need to be treated with Krown in the rust belt?

 

[John_K]

I see alot of young people who use Uber, pay relatives for rides, use public transit. Car ownership just isn't that important for them. Add in the fact that new car prices are out of sight and I have to totally agree.

 

[Dyusik]

I predict that in 40 years I'll be too dead to care about anything. At least I'll have an excuse to not care.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by skyactiv
Will the new driverless carriages need to be treated with Krown in the rust belt?




The move is towards plastic and resin bodies.

 

[FordBroncoVWJeta]

Im almost 20. I don't know any one in my class that DOESN'T have a car. Most of them have pretty new cars on top of that. Maybe its a city thing.

 

[92saturnsl2]

Originally Posted by philipp10
Now does anyone want to tell me why I am full of baloney?


You're probably right, but I don't think it'll be so drastic. In the urban environment, your points are valid.

I've lived in a lot of rural areas, and I can't remember any one person being okay with the idea of sharing rides.

The bigger issue is that most working class folks just don't have the disposable income to be buying new cars, like was common 20 years ago. Back then you could buy a nice sedan for $15,000 and the company (whoever it may be, big three, foreign, etc.) made money on it and people could reasonably afford it. Something has changed and it's not demand for new vehicles. Now the big 3 is going for CUV, SUV, trucks because it's the only way they can make a decent profit, and there is a demand. There is a market for smaller cars and sedans, but few, especially the big three can make a profit producing them, unless the parts or production are outsourced to [censored].

 

[MrMoody]

Originally Posted by philipp10
In 20 years 1/3-1/2 of all auto manufacturing companies will cease to exist. In 40 years maybe 1 out of 3 will be with us.

I'm with you there, but not because of driverless cars. It will be because of Chinese manufacturing. As soon as they penetrate North America and Europe, the manufacturers on the edge will go right over it because they can't compete. Although you will see the same nameplates on Chinese products, like now with electronics and appliances. Buicks are already made in S. Korea, for example.

Driverless vehicles are still over 20 years away. Freight trucks will be the first to be seen in significant numbers, and there will be horrific accidents for a while, as well as deliberate sabotage, hacking, capture and theft of contents, etc. Devious humans smarter than the computers will figure out how to get over on them pretty quickly, and it will take a long time for developers to close every vulnerability. I see a lot of entertaining mayhem coming when it's man vs. machine.

Driverless passenger cars won't take over immediately in large numbers, either. They will be thought of like cabs at first, with fares only somewhat lower, and used mostly in places where parking and traffic are problems that justify the higher cost per trip. Rent a ride will never be as cheap as keeping a car in flyover areas, even when the car you own can drive itself. Governments may eventually ban human drivers from certain areas or roads, but that is a long way off yet, too.

 

[SnowDrifter]

Interesting point on the demand for larger vehicles. My 13 year old truck with almost 140k on it is worth just shy of 10k. I was always under the impression it had something to do with build quality - trucks/large SUVs generally have a different work demand than would your standard passenger vehicle, and are built accordingly

 

[zzyzzx]

Originally Posted by philipp10
IUsing subscription based services will more than halve yearly automobile output....sharing cars through subscription will mean fewer are necessary.
.

Using this logic, subscription service cars and Uber cars never wear out.

 

[Lolvoguy]

Originally Posted by FordBroncoVWJeta
Im almost 20. I don't know any one in my class that DOESN'T have a car.
Most of them have pretty new cars on top of that. Maybe its a city thing.


Hit the nail on the head with the last part.
Big cities have few young drivers. Most can and do depend on public transit, relatives, friends, car share etc.
Whereas in the smaller, more spread out areas, it's all about getting your licence ASAP

..all a matter of perspective.

 

[eljefino]

Originally Posted by MrMoody


Driverless vehicles are still over 20 years away. Freight trucks will be the first to be seen in significant numbers, and there will be horrific accidents for a while, as well as deliberate sabotage, hacking, capture and theft of contents, etc. Devious humans smarter than the computers will figure out how to get over on them pretty quickly, and it will take a long time for developers to close every vulnerability. I see a lot of entertaining mayhem coming when it's man vs. machine.



Yes and there'll be contracts for companies to supply emergency on-call drivers or tow trucks when they "call home" with problems. Imagine a snowy hill-- trucks will make it halfway up, hit their traction control, then shut down as a fail-safe and hit the hazards. Now imagine a stack of these turtles flipped on their backs all in one place.

 

[MONKEYMAN]

When autonomous vehicles become much safer than a human driving personal vehicle ownership will go away for the most part. Increased insurance prices, paying per mile driven, etc are some ways to move people from ownership to using a transportation service. They will use what is cheaper or convenient.

 

[PimTac]

"Buicks are already made in S. Korea, for example.




Some Buicks are made in China.

 

[DoubleWasp]

The automotive industry may actually change, rather than become tomorrow's Blockbuster Video.

There is this huge trend toward paying maximum dollar for a vehicle that will be essentially thrown away after 3-4 years. The younger drivers may not want to be in on that scheme. Repairing vehicles is already bankrupting working class people. There may come a point where things come to a head, and the auto manufacturers will be the ones forced to swerve.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Also depends on which cities we are talking about. Some cities do very little about public transit and some, ie New York have extensive subways. The better the public transit the fewer cars. Man, I couldn't wait to get my license. How else were you going to get some private time with all the young lovelies out there?

 

[jhellwig]

30 years ago we were supposed to have Mr. Fusions on our time traveling deloreans by now. The only real advancement we have made lately is computing power and manufacturing efficiencies and precision. With the way we keep going in circles that is about all we are going to accomplish.

 

[Shannow]

I've had similar thoughts...it's not what I will personally like, but is a nett benefit for society and the envirnonment (and not the economy money machine).

Driverless cars and phone apps...the car will be at the door when you need it. Google already tells me when I need t leave on a business trip to get to the airport etc.

Cars will be on the road the majority of the hours of the day, reducing the need for car-parks, and as quite rightly pointed out, reducing the number needed.

And that will mean that they wear out, being replaced by the latest bestest thing rather than being replaced due to rust and age.

 

[daves87rs]

It would seem most are counting on this staying the same.

The world itself will be much different by then-maybe with the uses of buses are horses....

 

[eljefino]

Originally Posted by Shannow

And that will mean that they wear out, being replaced by the latest bestest thing rather than being replaced due to rust and age.


If people don't actually "own" a car though and treat it as an appliance, wouldn't there be an incentive to just keep refreshing it?

The US Mail uses 1994 vintage Grumman vehicles, which see plenty of use, and are perpetually rebuilt, like a Ship of Theseus.

If a car isn't a status symbol, the only reason to buy new is to get more reliability, comfort, or doodads. If you're never going to see your uber again, why care?