Zillow predicts housing price contraction for 2025

More news - Lennar just reported new home selling price has dropped 8.7% from a year ago.

"But the average sales price dropped 8.7% to $389,000 per home, below the FactSet consensus of $393,510 per home, and the lowest price seen since the quarter that ended in May 2020."


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/l...-year-lows-but-theyre-still-too-high-a7dc01f1
Lots missing from the article. What is the Lennar selling price per square foot last year to this year per subdivision would be a beneficial comparison. Lennar's gross profit percentage per home remains similar to prior years, so this implies Lennar is not having to reduce prices to sell homes. Lots of other factors like location, did Lennar open new subdivisions in Arkansas and like low cost land states this year?
 
Lots missing from the article. What is the Lennar selling price per square foot last year to this year per subdivision would be a beneficial comparison. Lennar's gross profit percentage per home remains similar to prior years, so this implies Lennar is not having to reduce prices to sell homes. Lots of other factors like location, did Lennar open new subdivisions in Arkansas and like low cost land states this year?
I am not sure we’re reading same article. There margin dropped a ton.

“Gross margin on home sales was 17.8%, down from 18.7% in the previous quarter and 22.6% a year ago.”

The stock sold off. So those that track these things as a profession didn’t like it.

I have always said all housing markets are local.
 
I am not sure we’re reading same article. There margin dropped a ton.

“Gross margin on home sales was 17.8%, down from 18.7% in the previous quarter and 22.6% a year ago.”

The stock sold off. So those that track these things as a profession didn’t like it.

I have always said all housing markets are local.
My error, I misread the margin drop to be 17.8%, down from 18.7% annually, not quarterly. Thanks for catching my error.
 
I guess once you click on one article they feed you more :(

"52% of prospective homebuyers are optimistic about the state of the homebuying market, saying it’s better now than it was a year ago. Three out of four (75%) expect home prices and interest rates to fall and are waiting until then to buy a new home, up from 62% in 2023."
https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/...owners-and-prospective-buyers-uncertain-.html
 
I can't say $334k is typical but I can say I have more than that in household income by quite a bit. Just as a reference and a joke if you are in Palo Alto the qualifying line of affordable housing program for a family of 4 is $200k in total family income.

Most of the people with 2M home purchase either roll in their gain from previous home (they are not first time buyer and had some home appreciation from a prior cheaper smaller home or condo, for example), or they sold other investment to get a down payment for that 2M home. Yes, Bay Area is not an average income US metro. It is near the top of US if not already the top. You can't use average US household income to value NYC real estate price for the same reason. There are a lot of choices for people who can't afford the perfect home: you can get a condo or townhouse in good school district, or commute from far away, or just don't go to a good school district and send the kids to a private school (private schools here aren't automatically better than public schools mind you), or just rent for a few years during the school district need.

Another couple of things are: we have prop 13 so it limits property tax increase over time regardless of home appreciation. So this is why many old people refuse to sell and leave to somewhere just slightly cheaper, because they would lose that property tax discount. There are also cheaper places to live if you don't mind commuting, like Livermore and Gilroy, but you are paying for it in commute stress.

$400k for down pay is really not a lot if you work for a company that has a lot of stock, and people switch jobs a lot for these up side. Managing your own investment in the stock market is also as important as your work performance and spending habits.
No offense but what do you do to have an almost million dollar income ?
Is this normal in California? Cause it ain't where I live
Do you know that the average wage in America is 25 dollars an hour , people just can't afford 300k or more houses. Yet they are bought every day , I don't get it
 
No offense but what do you do to have an almost million dollar income ?
Is this normal in California? Cause it ain't where I live
Do you know that the average wage in America is 25 dollars an hour , people just can't afford 300k or more houses. Yet they are bought every day , I don't get it
Palo Alto is not a low income district, more like only VC bankers can afford to live there, or VP in companies. Most engineers just live in lower priced area. So, their standard of "low income" is skewed.

The typical "low income" family is probably around 80-120k for family of 4 not 200k. McD pay like $18 / hr but that's not a living wage still. You probably need to be in a rent controlled apartment to live like that.
 
The day this thread was started would have been a great day to pick up some Lennar Stock.
Stock up 25% in about 10 weeks.
Screenshot 2025-08-20 at 9.34.29 AM.webp
 
No offense but what do you do to have an almost million dollar income ?
Is this normal in California? Cause it ain't where I live
Do you know that the average wage in America is 25 dollars an hour , people just can't afford 300k or more houses. Yet they are bought every day , I don't get it
They are bought everyday because they can afford it.
BTW_ Average income in the USA is $69,000 your math is off and why people are able to buy homes "every day"
The median wage is what you are posting about. However those lower, many are young workers even high school and college kids. Not established families or families starting out.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html
 
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