Zillow predicts housing price contraction for 2025

Personally I would buy this one if I moved there. No neighbours :ROFLMAO:

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A better choice @SC Maintenance. $5M. Less than a mile and a half from our house by bicycle. Move there and we can troll BITOG together.

You want to know the CRAZY thing? At this very moment this place is undergoing a massive restoration!!!!! For what reason??????? The waste!!!!! People have to be intoxicated with too much money to do such a thing. Check out the "living room" and bedroom BEFORE the restoration. What the heck?! I guess they didn't like the color or the flooring, or maybe the fireplace, or maybe it's the animal skin rug. Yeah, that's it, it's the rug! Rip it all out and gut the place! I simply don't get it.

Scott

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Templeton/1840-Santa-Rita-Rd-93465/home/148614755

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I just checked, our house continues to increase in value. Approx. 1.5% each month this year. That's great if we wanted to sell, but at this point it just means the property taxes, and home insurance will be higher.
People don't seem to get this. Rising housing prices really don't help anyone unless you plan on using it as an ATM. If you sell, you just pay more at the next place anyway. Meanwhile taxes, insurance, etc just increase.
 
I don't understand how people in your area of CA afford houses, period. I googled the average home price for Los Gatos, CA and it's over $2M. How do people do it?
One more thing... There is a lot of money here due to the high tech. Jobs pay more, often much more. Companies may pay a differential if you work here, and may ask you to take a cut if you relocate to a remote location like Oregon.

Of course, the house prices are wack no matter how you slice it. I hear you are shopping Atherton or Blackhawk? Wow!
 
Hafta agree, at least around here in the short term. Too much uncertainty. Prices are basically holding. Still crazy high.
Prospective buyers I talk to, who are currently renting, want to buy but the down payment is a tough nut to crack.
This is it for most. Anyone can make that mortage payment. Hell, rent is higher than many mortgage payments. Sizeable down payment is definitely where people stall out.

I wonder if any states in the us have started an equity based down payment loan program? We had a federal program(kinda) in canada but it never really caught on.
 
When the financial institutions were deregulated in the mid-2000s by our Administration that was the beginning of the end.
Foreign money came in and greed took over.
That's all I can say to this without risking going into politics.
We need to look at root cause analysis; why did this happen?
the answer is pretty clear.
 
When I read these posts of the areas in CA that are expensive. I am not at all impressed. However, it depends on what and how you want to live. Want to live in a small 3 bedroom home in Las Gatos for 2 or 3 million and relish the area that is ok. Many people around the country, even in the middle of cities pay far more money to live in a condo.

However I am not impressed at all. More so with that previous 9 million dollar home posted by someone else.
Here is what you can buy in South Carolina and much of North Carolina at 1/3rd the price.

So my criteria is more location AND nice comfortable modern living. I dont consider it (for me personally) good living if I live in what some people in here called a shack for two million. Why I would ask? When I could have this. Homes like this are not unusual where my daughter went to MS and High School. Ours wasnt this size at only 3000 sq ft. and lacking lake front!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1252-Morning-Shore-Dr-Lexington-SC-29072/243879855_zpid/
This is what 3.5 million and less gets you in the land of the free.
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There are a number of possibilities.
One being that this is a blip and doesn't indicate a trend.
Another is that this has actually been happening sub rosa ever since the end of (almost) free money mortgages.
Also, this may be an indication of the beginning of a massive price correction in the housing market, which I hope is the case for all of the younger working families who have been priced out of a market their parents easily afforded.
Finally, this may be a leading indicator that the long forecast recession that never came is now actually in progress. This we won't know until the end of the year or so.
 
There are a number of possibilities.
One being that this is a blip and doesn't indicate a trend.
Another is that this has actually been happening sub rosa ever since the end of (almost) free money mortgages.
Also, this may be an indication of the beginning of a massive price correction in the housing market, which I hope is the case for all of the younger working families who have been priced out of a market their parents easily afforded.
Finally, this may be a leading indicator that the long forecast recession that never came is now actually in progress. This we won't know until the end of the year or so.
I completely agree, I've worked to pay down my house for 26 years with the intention of moving to some place not so populated. Looking for more open space with less traffic and people.

Even those areas just 5 years ago were priced accordingly are now Untouchable and I am practically priced out of any place that I would want to live with fresh air.

I don't mind giving up all of my equity to move into a new area but to be completely penniless after a sale is not what I expected.
 
People don't seem to get this. Rising housing prices really don't help anyone unless you plan on using it as an ATM. If you sell, you just pay more at the next place anyway. Meanwhile taxes, insurance, etc just increase.
One more thing... There is a lot of money here due to the high tech. Jobs pay more, often much more. Companies may pay a differential if you work here, and may ask you to take a cut if you relocate to a remote location like Oregon.

Of course, the house prices are wack no matter how you slice it. I hear you are shopping Atherton or Blackhawk? Wow!
Housing price is a reflection of the overall financial market and demand / supply. It is not a "I want it higher or I want it lower" that can just change it.

When you have an asset that cannot be easily mass produced (land limited), you will have finite supply, and competition to increase the price for people who want it. The demand for CA is not really weather (although it is nice), the demand is the jobs here. The reason jobs here pay more is because that's the kind of jobs that will generate value much higher than other jobs elsewhere (software, chips, cloud data center related, etc).

Can these companies move elsewhere because of cost of living? Yes, but there's always a competition between multiple things:

1) The momentum started here with Moffet Airfield and Jousha Hendy Iron Works. The military industrial complex was here developing military use tech.

2) The decline of Boston due to non-compete clause and competition started moving here to pouch competitors employee with higher pay. (This is one argument on why US should allow foreign talents instead of protecting US citizens, because all it takes is another developed nation say, Singapore, to pay through the nose to develop another top tech hub, once that decline started it is hard to get back up).

3) The VC is here, they have been again and again started almost all of our recent big tech companies here other than the ones in Seattle (Amazon and Microsoft). These guys will likely do different business in Boston or NYC where the focus is more about old money investing instead of high risk high return tech start up. The culture here supports that much better than anywhere else on earth.

4) Tech is a heavy in performance multiplier business so an employee making $400k can be 10x more productive than another employee making $150k. Companies here will pay for it, but less likely in say, Montana. Those talents got recruited here to those pay and after they do the math they are still better off moving here. This is why I always encourage people do their own math to decide whether to stay in CA or not. If you get what you want here stay, and if you don't, it is totally ok to cash out and move to Dallas for a comfortable life. There's something for everyone in life and you are not limited to here.


BTW high home price helps existing owners who bought long ago. They can always cash out and move somewhere cheaper once they retire and just enjoy life. This is why many renter protection laws almost always skirt around single family homes and focus on older apartments only. If you make an enemy of typical home owner on their net worth your bill will never see the light of days.
 
For those who are familiar with the area, Sunnyvale is no Los Gatos. In fact, I’d take Los Gatos any day over even more pricey Saratoga.

Sue and I left Los Gatos back in 2000 and ended up in a cute little unincorporated town in California’s Central Coast called Templeton. IMO, home affordability is even worse here in Templeton than Los Gatos. Los Gatos is chock full of well paying jobs. Templeton is a job desert, unless you like picking wine grapes or like working at a hotel front desk.

Sue and I had our reasons to leave Los Gatos, but it’s a deliberate decision I’ll always have a degree of regret. Although VERY different we love Templeton just as much. No way will we move from here make the same mistake twice.

Scott
I have seen your absolutely beautiful grounds you live on in Templeton. You live in a Garden of Eden minus the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil. Heck, you likely have better weather than the Garden of Eden. Can't imagine how nice it must be for you to go outside every morning, sit down, and drink a cup of coffee......
 
I have seen your absolutely beautiful grounds you live on in Templeton. You live in a Garden of Eden minus the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil. Heck, you likely have better weather than the Garden of Eden. Can't imagine how nice it must be for you to go outside every morning, sit down, and drink a cup of coffee......
That’s very nice of you to say, @GON. Sue and I feel very fortunate.

Scott
 
The problem with housing data is its either ridiculously lagged and incomplete (Case Schiller) or its controlled by people with vested interest in the housing market going up (NAR, Zillow, Redfin).

Still, I'll share another zillow article - since several have been published on this forum in the past. Pertinent parts:

"Zillow’s latest forecast indicates an increase in existing home sales and a decline in home values in 2025. "

"Home values are projected to fall by 1.4% this year.....The combination of rising inventory due in part to soft sales volume so far this spring could continue to put downward pressure on home values. "


Of course, this is only a projection, and all housing markets are local, so enjoy.

https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/
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I have seen your absolutely beautiful grounds you live on in Templeton. You live in a Garden of Eden minus the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil. Heck, you likely have better weather than the Garden of Eden. Can't imagine how nice it must be for you to go outside every morning, sit down, and drink a cup of coffee......
Here's a nighttime shot for you, @GON.

Scott

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This is it for most. Anyone can make that mortage payment. Hell, rent is higher than many mortgage payments. Sizeable down payment is definitely where people stall out.

I wonder if any states in the us have started an equity based down payment loan program? We had a federal program(kinda) in canada but it never really caught on.
We do have low down payment options available both federally and state level. We bought our house using a FannieMay home ready loan, 3% down and the PMI cancels itself once you hit 80% LTV. First house we used FHA.
 
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