Zillow estimating 5.8 (+ or-) percent decrease in "non-hot" property markets

[GON]

I track single family home trends in about a dozen markets across the USA. All have shown gains for 2021, every single market I track.

Over the past four days, Zillow has predicted a 5.8 percent decrease for 2022 in two "non-hot" markets so far. One market not so unexpected Dallas County, MO.

The other decrease just came in, and I was a bit surprised of the estimated decrease in this non-hot market- Fort Garland, CO. FT Garland is in a desolate area of South East CO..... but all of CO has been rocking in single family home price increases. Did not see a loss, even in not so popular areas of CO being identified as a price loss for 2022. I can see the single family price decrease predictions for Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New York etc...... but not CO.

 

[CKN]

I track single family home trends in about a dozen markets across the USA. All have shown gains for 2021, every single market I track.

Over the past four days, Zillow has predicted a 5.8 percent decrease for 2022 in two "non-hot" markets so far. One market not so unexpected Dallas County, MO.

The other decrease just came in, and I was a bit surprised of the estimated decrease in this non-hot market- Fort Garland, CO. FT Garland is in a desolate area of South East CO..... but all of CO has been rocking in single family home price increases. Did not see a loss, even in not so popular areas of CO being identified as a price loss for 2022. I can see the single family price decrease predictions for Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New York etc...... but not CO.

Again-all areas mentioned for decreases are basically EAST of the Mississippi. You won't see much decreases where people WANT TO LIVE. I have never talked to anybody who wants to move to those areas you mentioned. People don't want to leave Colorado, Utah, Arizona, etc., and move to Pennsylvania-although having visited that state it is pretty.

 

[JeffKeryk]

There is basically zero inventory in the Bay Area. Even older commercial property continues to be consumed by Apple, Samsung, Tesla and others.
My niece just bought a 3/1.5 condo in Capitola for $710K. Needs work. She was flat out lucky; she got in for $150K under market.

I don't get it.

 

[CKN]

There is basically zero inventory in the Bay Area. Even older commercial property continues to be consumed by Apple, Samsung, Tesla and others.
My niece just bought a 3/1.5 condo in Capitola for $710K. Needs work. She was flat out lucky; she got in for $150K under market.

I don't get it.

There is basically zero inventory in Salt Lake City and surrounding suburbs, My home-I bought ten years ago is up 250%-located southwest of SLC. If a home goes up for sale in my neighborhood-it's sold in no more than a week-often less. Over a half-million (which is alot based on wages here) is now the price of admission for a single family home-since in my neighbor hood on average houses are about 4,000 sq feet=those houses are pushing a million-in Utah. Mine is 2,500 sq feet.

 

[wpod]

There is basically zero inventory in the Bay Area. Even older commercial property continues to be consumed by Apple, Samsung, Tesla and others.
My niece just bought a 3/1.5 condo in Capitola for $710K. Needs work. She was flat out lucky; she got in for $150K under market.

I don't get it.

The house I sold in Millbrae as is for a cash sale for a million and a half which was a great price in 2015 is now Zillow priced at $2,600,000.00. The rental house my daughter bought for $239,000.00 has a Zillow price of almost $500,000.00 . The problem is where are you going to move to because everything is becoming expensive? Some people are smart enough to earn tons of money.

 

[CKN]

The house I sold in Millbrae as is for a cash sale for a million and a half which was a great price in 2015 is now Zillow priced at $2,600,000.00. The rental house my daughter bought for $239,000.00 has a Zillow price of almost $500,000.00 . The problem is where are you going to move to because everything is becoming expensive? Some people are smart enough to earn tons of money.

Yes-even so-called "move up" houses are in short supply, leaving those of us with a fully paid off house unable to sell-and thus contributing to a property shortage for first time-or even second time buyers wanting to move up some from a "starter home".

 

[The Critic]

I bought a house in September 2019. The house has increased in value by 40.5%.

 

[CKN]

I bought a house in September 2019. The house has increased in value by 40.5%.

Critic-What part of California?

 

[Dave Hess]

I gave my 3 kids a gift of cash so they could purchase a house, if not it would be almost impossible for them to buy where they did.

 

[CKN]

I gave my 3 kids a gift of cash so they could purchase a house, if not it would be almost impossible for them to buy where they did.

Same here. The only issue is my middle son went through a divorce and had to sell the house in Southern California-which is now up about 40% from 18 months ago. However- my other two sons have their houses which we helped out some.

 

[The Critic]

Critic-What part of California?

SF Bay Area, East Bay

 

[UncleDave]

Redfin is more accurate than Zillow.

When zillow got into real estate they started getting whacky with estimates.

 

[The Critic]

Redfin is more accurate than Zillow.

When zillow got into real estate they started getting whacky with estimates.

Zillow is 80K lower than Redfin for my house.

 

[Rand]

Redfin is more accurate than Zillow.

When zillow got into real estate they started getting whacky with estimates.

Interesting. real estate shenanigans
Background:
I paid around 70k for my house and neighboring lot in 2013
no one lists the side lot which previously was appraised at 17k, currently 8.8k
my lot the home is on lists a 18.8k land value (not sure why its double the neighboring lot)

Chase says my house and lot (but not extra lot) is worth 70-85k
Zillow says anywhere from 90 to 100k (not including side lot)
edit:
redfin who I never heard of says $138480 NOT including side lot..

This is a depressed area just lost huge amount of great jobs and URBAN not exactly high demand location.

Having half an acre 1/2 mile from downtown is a nice city yard though.

 

[alarmguy]

I can predict that too after all interest rates are going to rise and will put pressure on home prices.
Zillow is a useful tool to see what homes are selling for and actually sell for across the country because you dont have to go to figure out what the local MLS is since Zillow feeds off them.

With that said, dont mistake Zillow for an authority on anything, they are not. They only republish sales information from other sources. This does not make them an expert on anything.
Proof in the pudding, Zillow got into buying homes and reselling them in one of the hottest markets of all times across the USA. They have LOST HUNDREDS of MILLIONS if not a BILLION or close to it in dollars because of their miscalculations.

Just last November they reported losing over 300 MILLION dollars in 3 months alone. They now got rid of or getting rid of 25% of their workforce and getting out of the home buying business. I would expect its an easy ONE BILLION + Dollar loss once everything is written off the books, that the shareholders will pay.

They are the last source on earth one should rely on for predictions.

 

[zzyzzx]

Got a link to the data? I'd have to think that in my area real estate is either flat or down.

 

[CKN]

Redfin is more accurate than Zillow.

When zillow got into real estate they started getting whacky with estimates.

Depends on the state. Utah us a non disclosure state- meaning that others don't have access to your mortgage information and real estate closing documents. So yes- Zillow here can be off by tens of thousands of dollars. So for example- if you paid cash for your property, only your realtor would know what you paid, other than the taxing agencies. Property tax records are not available to the public.

 

[PandaBear]

Again-all areas mentioned for decreases are basically EAST of the Mississippi. You won't see much decreases where people WANT TO LIVE. I have never talked to anybody who wants to move to those areas you mentioned. People don't want to leave Colorado, Utah, Arizona, etc., and move to Pennsylvania-although having visited that state it is pretty.

I keep hearing about east vs west of Mississippi, what is that about?

 

[PandaBear]

There is basically zero inventory in the Bay Area. Even older commercial property continues to be consumed by Apple, Samsung, Tesla and others.
My niece just bought a 3/1.5 condo in Capitola for $710K. Needs work. She was flat out lucky; she got in for $150K under market.

I don't get it.

Was told by a friend who works in Apple that his department now has a hiring freeze on software engineers in the Bay Area, they are going to San Diego for those new hires now. Hardware being near the spaceship is still important and HW engineers are cheaper than SW, they think it is not worth spending 400K on SW guys I think.

 

[CKN]

I keep hearing about east vs west of Mississippi, what is that about?

That's were there has been influx of population and MASSIVE property increases. Look up Star Valley, Wyoming. I know someone who bid 1 million on some acreage and he was outbid. Look at it on a map-it's a growth area but is still isolated. You don't see that in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, etc. The only other areas that come close are the Carolinas, and Florida-as far as influx of population. Of course that's basically East Coast.

It should be noted a shift in population is an unintended consequence of COVID and being able to work from home. I have a relative who isn't allowed in the company's office anymore due to his (non) vaccination status. He now permanently works from home. Consequently he is buying a new house much farther away from his previous work office.