WTI was 75 dollars today.

[MSCH]

where are the people who were predicting 100 a barrel or higher because of the Hamas and Ukraine things?

I know one thing for sure, if I had an accurate crystal ball, I could own the street named Wall.
them guys don't have an accurate crystal ball either.

 

[Dave Hess]

Time to refill the SPR…..

 

[GON]

where are the people who were predicting 100 a barrel or higher because of the Hamas and Ukraine things?

I know one thing for sure, if I had an accurate crystal ball, I could own the street named Wall.
them guys don't have an accurate crystal ball either.

Some airline flights actually have some open seats. Just a few months ago I would regularly struggle buying a same day seat, not so bad today.

This might be an indicator of slowing demand, not an increase in production or efficiency. If the fall in prices is because of slowing demand...... plan accordingly.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

If you are surprised at this, you aren't watching behavior on the streets with retail, restaurants, how the big banks are batting around a hot potato with car loan delinquency, etc.

I'd say your typical household is beyond strapped. Many had a no-holds-barred attitude of spending money from mid-2020 through 2022. The faucet got turned off in many aspects and the chickens are coming home to roost.

 

[97prizm]

Some airline flights actually have some open seats. Just a few months ago I would regularly struggle buying a same day seat, not so bad today.

This might be an indicator of slowing demand, not an increase in production or efficiency. If the fall in prices is because of slowing demand...... plan accordingly.

The CEO of Frontier Airlines made a statement about high fuel prices and an unusual slowing of market demand. He's a cool guy very down to earth. I had the chance to chat with him over a glass of scotch while at Frontier years ago.

 

[Dave Hess]

If you are surprised at this, you aren't watching behavior on the streets with retail, restaurants, how the big banks are batting around a hot potato with car loan delinquency, etc.

I'd say your typical household is beyond strapped. Many had a no-holds-barred attitude of spending money from mid-2020 through 2022. The faucet got turned off in many aspects and the chickens are coming home to roost.

Yep.

Some people couldn’t pay rent, cellphone bill or utilities…… yet they were able buy new $70,000 pickup trucks and SUVs due to all the stimulus cash and deferral of paying existing bills.

Yes, storm clouds on the horizon.

 

[eljefino]

Yep.

Some people couldn’t pay rent, cellphone bill or utilities…… yet they were able buy new $70,000 pickup trucks and SUVs due to all the stimulus cash and deferral of paying existing bills.

Well, you know, a bank approved of the idea, too, and we taxpayers get to bail that mess out without punishing the bank execs.

 

[Vil_Riker]

car loans are likely the new sub-prime...

 

[bbhero]

Well, you know, a bank approved of the idea, too, and we taxpayers get to bail that mess out without punishing the bank execs.

Just like the banks in 2002-2008… Approved many, many bad mortgages.. Fannie Mae and Freddy did the exact same thing too…

All due to getting rid of the Glass- Stegall Act.That was passed by all parties at that time.

The Federal Reserve has been the problem for a long, long time now. Artificially keeping interest rates far too low for a long time led to all that craziness.

They don’t have any more “ ammunition” left to fight this circumstance.

 

[BAJA_05]

The rich just get richer --- wait until the Holidays are over that are coming up. You watch -- gas prices will go back up again. Just a ploy at the moment.

 

[Snagglefoot]

CANADA has another 1/2 a million bbls a days of capacity ready but backed up, waiting to fill the Trans Mountain Pipeline in 2024. It will be interesting to see if those bbls get shipped to China or if they end up in California.

 

[GON]

CANADA has another 1/2 a million bbls a days of capacity ready but backed up, waiting to fill the Trans Mountain Pipeline in 2024. It will be interesting to see if those bbls get shipped to China or if they end up in California.

The answer of where that oil goes is obvious.

 

[4WD]

The answer of where that oil goes is obvious.

China gets a massive amount of oil outside of the free trade market - they don’t belong in any free trade groups …

 

[mk378]

Oil is conventionally freely traded. Trade tariffs and restrictions seldom include petroleum, especially crude oil. When oil from a particular country is sometimes boycotted, it is for political not economic reasons. A country like China which does not have domestic reserves won't benefit from taxing imports.

 

[PandaBear]

There are always uncertainty in economy. The model you have in the past may not predict the future correctly and when things are too expensive the demands would change.

Russia sold oil to India to refine then export. It is expected as there's always black market and the only thing you can do is not blockade but to increase the cost of doing business (in this case Russia). China also bought up a lot of Russian gas and oil obviously.

In the US the main reason would be the interest rate hikes and its effect in cooling the economy (increase in unemployment and stressing the bond market and commercial real estate). Flight miles and commute miles would likely reduce and therefore oil price impacted as well.