UOA's can't be used for that purpose.
No, SAE 20 grade oils have been around since before WWII. I've seen Gray Marine engines with brass grade plaques on the final drive that listed SAE 20, SAE 30, SAE 40 and the intended temperature range for each grade in the engine.
No, the wider bearing changes were made to accommodate oil grades BELOW the SAE 20 threshold; below the 2.6cP HTHS limit, which is where design changes need to be made. It was Honda, Toyota, Nissan...etc that were experimenting with grades that weren't even ratified in J300 at the time, but had HTHS viscosities below 2.6cP, that discovered the need for wider bearings, along with surface coatings and other mechanisms to keep wear to an acceptable level.
There isn't a 3-6% improvement in mileage going from an xW-30 to an xW-20, it would be much less than that, based on what Mobil shared with their AFE oils.
As long as oil temperature is properly controlled (and many applications that call for xW-20 have heat exchangers for the oil to keep it in a specific temperature range), xW-20 is generally safe (it is, after all, spec'd by the OEM). However, some applications, with fuel dilution and poor oil temperature control, I wouldn't feel safe running an xW-20.
So, for me personally, it comes down to application. Just like I prefer an additive package with non-neutered AW chemistry.