Where is the Electricity going to come to charge EVs ?

[OVERKILL]

You're preaching to the choir my friend. Vogtle is a bad example because, god willing, it'll actually be completed. A better example is VC Summer. They spent billions and billions of dollars and in the end gave up because "it was just too expensive" and then passed on the costs to ratepayers with nothing to show for it. Politicians, companies, and consumers are very short-sighted. They just see "$25-30 billion dollars" estimate and they fan themselves and swoon over the cost. It's nearly impossible to explain long term cost/benefit to those types because chances are they will be dead by the time it matters. Unless you or I can find some way to make them care about those long-term costs they're never going to go for it.

I used Vogtle because it's currently cited the most often for a price comparison, but if you actually break down the numbers as I've done, even though it is insanely over-budget, it's still roughly on-par price-wise with offshore wind, something that is so often claimed to be "cheap". There's so much spin that takes place, it's exceedingly frustrating. And that's not a justification for the Gong Show Vogtle has been, but rather a highlighting of how similar offshore wind is, despite the contrary being claimed.

Yes, VC Summer is a very sad case. Like at Seabrooke though, I believe the opportunity still exists to resume construction if the will was there. This would be inline with the completion of the two CANDU units at Cernavodă. This would make sense once Vogtle 3 and 4 are complete and the expertise and experience is present. That's how France hammered through the Messmer plan.

 

[JeffKeryk]

@alarmguy As you can guess, solar is big around here due to high energy costs and lotsa sunshine. I "think" it is also less costly to install a system vs other parts of the country, but I am not sure about that. I can tell you it is very competitive here; companies vie for your business.

What I learned through the process is you get a tax credit for a "Solar Project". In my case it was 30% of the project cost. What blew my mind was I could include roofing costs! I was at about half life on my roof, but any future roof work would include removal and reinstall of the solar components. There is also a CA solar benefit, but there is a salary limit that excluded me.
In all honesty, the roof inclusion made for a compelling story for both saving and long term housing cost. I imagine I could have included the cost of the 50A circuit to the garage for the Model 3, but I had no idea I would be getting an EV so soon.

Keep in mind, this was part of a forward looking plan to complete as much as I could before retirement, while I was getting that Silicon Valley paycheck. My only real concern was for my wife, going forward in case something happened to me.

I am a saver, a planner. This comes from my grandparents immagrating from Ukraine, being dirt poor and working hard to build a life. And all my years of drinking and being broke. All my mistakes left a big mark on me; I know the other side of life. I never wanna be that person again.

 

[OVERKILL]

I

I read this thread, and they're 100% correct in most respects but the video I linked earlier demonstrates that the actual radiation levels can locally, on the surface, be much much higher than 10usv/hr. Heck, the background radiation in my HOUSE in Upstate NY is about 9.5-11usv/hr. And that doesn't take into account digging 1-2 meters+ down where the most heavily contaminated trees, topsoil, and equipment was buried.

10 years ago bionerd23 found a piece of likely fuel/graphite in that area and at contact was producing dozens of millisieverts/hr. There's surely much more stuff like that that was deliberately buried in the red forest area. There is a reason even Chernobyl radiation workers are not allowed in that area, if the radiation levels were truly a benign 10usv/hr there would be no restrictions. I'm not saying that any soldiers are actually experiencing ARS, I'm just saying that it's probably not as safe to be digging around there as some experts seem to be making it out to be. And I'm usually the first person who trusts what experts say.

Did you see this bit?

In order to produce ARS, the dose isn't μSv but Sv. As she noted. So, even the suspected chunk of fuel you noted wouldn't be intense enough to produce ARS. Now, that doesn't mean that it's not bad, or that it won't cause health issues later on, it's just not ARS. ARS is a very specific condition that requires a very intense dose over an extremely short period of time.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

1. Exactly, two different purposes. EVs are a commuter car to most of the population and government subsides make them dirt cheap to own at the current time, just wait until they find a way to tax them like they tax gasoline vehicles and also stop subsidizing the purchase price of many models.
You do not use your vehicle for travel or pleasure traveling, you fly. That is fine.

2. For some reason if. you re-read my OP I am talking about electric vehicles but you are taking the comments as a ding against Tesla. Its clear you are proud of your Tesla and that's fine, we all take pride in stuff we buy. Your taking my comments personal though.
To me? Tesla is a nothing, a car manufacturer, a tiny needle in a haystack of automobiles commanding a 2.5% market share in the USA.

To you it is more and that's ok but I can tell you right now, I can jump in my GM SUV and drive to Destin Fl from my home in South Carolina in comfort and care free. I can jump in my SUV to the mountains of Western NC and Eastern TN, I can jump in my SUV and head to the beach. I can not do that with an electric vehicle and will not be able to do that for another 15 to 20 years. This is my life style regarding my vehicles and sadly I may no longer be on this earth in decades to come where it will be possible with an EV.

Consumer reports, hey, that's all good too. BMW and Harley motorcycles had the WORST reliability issue out of motorcycles attributed to minor things being they are more sophisticated. I own a Harley, new since 2014, now, 8 years later still hasn't needed a repair. SO I guess you need to agree with Consumer reports ratings arent that reliable.

The same goes for Tesla. Consumer Reports Rates almost every model of Tesla as having the worst rating for Reliability given to automobiles by the publication. To repeat = The worst reliability rating.
The satisfaction level is the highest with Tesla but that is highest rating is given to many, many gasoline vehicles too and of those gasoline vehicles many more have reliability scores that are the highest Consumer Reports gives out while Tesla is at the bottom of the barrel.

This is all goes back to my OP, Electric vehicles are still primitive as a primary multi-use vehicle for mainstream America, we do not have the infrastructure to support them and they currently are and would be an inconvenience for many people.
We are not going to see a market saturation of EVs approaching 20% of the market for a long time.

I dont see how Tesla will survive as a car company all the majors are gearing up their production, including new Chinese companies.
Building an electric car is simply popping an electric motor in it with some batteries. I see the day that these motors will be made by Chinese owned GE, Korean owned Samsung, Lg ect. and people will be buying cars based on motor options or the motor themselves. I dont know *LOL* but they are nothing special except...
we need enough power plants to replace all the gasoline stations in the USA... someone tell me how it will be done, until then, we are living in a bubble.

(just discussing/debating things here, I dont think anyone has all the answers)

I am in agreement with you.

 

[alarmguy]

@alarmguy As you can guess, solar is big around here due to high energy costs and lotsa sunshine. I "think" it is also less costly to install a system vs other parts of the country, but I am not sure about that. I can tell you it is very competitive here; companies vie for your business.

What I learned through the process is you get a tax credit for a "Solar Project". In my case it was 30% of the project cost. What blew my mind was I could include roofing costs! I was at about half life on my roof, but any future roof work would include removal and reinstall of the solar components. There is also a CA solar benefit, but there is a salary limit that excluded me.
In all honesty, the roof inclusion made for a compelling story for both saving and long term housing cost. I imagine I could have included the cost of the 50A circuit to the garage for the Model 3, but I had no idea I would be getting an EV so soon.

Keep in mind, this was part of a forward looking plan to complete as much as I could before retirement, while I was getting that Silicon Valley paycheck. My only real concern was for my wife, going forward in case something happened to me.

I am a saver, a planner. This comes from my grandparents immagrating from Ukraine, being dirt poor and working hard to build a life. And all my years of drinking and being broke. All my mistakes left a big mark on me; I know the other side of life. I never wanna be that person again.

Awesome post ... the roof thing is a big benefit. Did you do the battery back up?

Grandparents - yes, lessons well learned from that generation. Its something that is being lost on the youth today, they expect too much to be handed to them and it shows. I fear for the future because some of them actually think life is rough in todays world and in the history of mankind it has never been more easy.
I learned from my family structure and grandparents as well. Fathers parents came over on a boat through Elis Island from Poland/Germany and Moms parents from Italy same way, right off the boat. They all knew the hard work ethic and made something of their lives here in the promised land.
I like your planning for your wife. Both my wife and I made sure if one or the other goes the other is well cared for.

 

[Krieg]

From whomever provides power to your location!

 

[FZ1]

Solar panel systems have been big in CA and Silicon Valley for a long time. Energy costs are high and there is lotsa sun. We live in a small town, Los Gatos, at the foot of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Solar projects are expensive, but have come way down. In later 2017 I started to get serious; Costco Sunrun was offering a compelling story. I ultimately contracted with Infinity Solar. The new roof and panels were installed in Feb 2018.
Solar System $17K + Full Reroof $12.4K = $29.4K The Federal tax credit was 30% or almost $9K as I recall, but I think I got more than that. I don't really remember... I did not qualify for the CA state benefit as I exceeded the income limit. Basically I paid $12K for the solar and got a premium roof for under $9K. I am sure prices are thousands lower now. I expect to get 25 years out of the system as I bought newest panel technology and top quality components.

I did the project for several reasons.

• 1st it was a hedge against rising energy costs. Score! Heck wifey saves $50 per week alone using the Tesla for her work commute.
• I knew I would use the AC more and more energy in general as I would retire in a few years.
• It raised the value of our home, but you don't buy a home here, you buy the zip code.
• I figured I might buy an EV someday; I bought the Tesla late in 2018.
• I wanted to go green. I hate PG&E and might get a house battery and go off their grid.

I pay a flat fee of $15 to use the PG&E grid, but there are other adjustments that bring it down. I have an annual true up of Total Consumption - Total Generated. If I owe, I have to pay. I have never paid, but I know there are a lotta owners who bought undersized systems and are getting expensive surprises.

Solar is the biggest no brainer around here. My solar project has turned out to be a solid investment. I live for peanuts nowadays.
In fact, new housing projects are required to have solar. They do everything with electricity. No gas water heater, stove, house heater. With the economy of scale and mass production installation, the incremental cost of the solar is minimized. Heck of a way to go.

Impressive.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Awesome post ... the roof thing is a big benefit. Did you do the battery back up?

Grandparents - yes, lessons well learned from that generation. Its something that is being lost on the youth today, they expect too much to be handed to them and it shows. I fear for the future because some of them actually think life is rough in todays world and in the history of mankind it has never been more easy.
I learned from my family structure and grandparents as well. Fathers parents came over on a boat through Elis Island from Poland/Germany and Moms parents from Italy same way, right off the boat. They all knew the hard work ethic and made something of their lives here in the promised land.
I like your planning for your wife. Both my wife and I made sure if one or the other goes the other is well cared for.

No battery; the panels cost enough. As I recall, the battery would have nearly doubled the cost. I could be wrong.
Thanks for speaking highly of your grandparents. Those early 1900's immagrants came for a better life and brought an incredible work ethic with them.

 

[PandaBear]

Full Price: Solar System $17K + Full Reroof $12.4K = $29.4K.
Solar, net of tax credit: $17K * .7 = $11.9K
Roof, net of tax credit: $12.4 * .7 = $8.7
I don't trust PG&E as far as I can throw them; I cannot say what the future holds.

My goal was to get the house ready for the long term, in case something happened to me, so my wife would have the best, low cost living situation. Which is funny, because she has more money than I do. The solar project was one component. So now the only major recurring cost is the annual property tax; everything else is done or minimized.

@PandaBear I have always been frugal; I never turned on the AC unless my folks or guests came over. I believed my consumption would only increase because I would be retiring within a few years. I am retired now. We have an EV, perhaps you might add monthly gasoline cost into your calculation, which can save about $50 per week with today's pump prices, depending on driving needs. No one has to tell you about our CA energy pricees...

I think, that you did plan a lot and invested early on to make sure you have the need covered. It works out for your use case if you use a lot of AC, or have an EV and drives a lot.

In the scenario where you don't turn on AC a lot, don't drive your EV a lot (because you are retired), then your depreciation cost of the solar panel is fixed, the amount you generated unused by you, will be fed back to PG&E at whatever they will give you. Today you are using net metering, they "may" give you the best deal they can, tomorrow you may get day time off peak rate competing with utility-scale solar, or the grid is full and they refuse to let you feed in (you lose it if you don't have battery storage) like they are doing in Hawaii now.

Also about your EV, as you mentioned electricity is cheaper than gas per mile, and the main cost would be battery depreciation (replacement cost over 20 years, for example, or the vehicle cost above gas vehicle over 20 years, depends on how long you keep the car). If you don't drive much (you are retired) and buy an EV, you are losing money.

I'm happy your plan works out for you, and you can afford to buy out such planning / insurance ahead of time. To me this may or may not work out for most people at the moment, and often if you plan like this ahead of time you may pay too much vs later on when prices drop (i.e. early panel installation cost way more per watt, early EV cost way more per year / miles, than the later newer system).

 

[JeffKeryk]

@PandaBear I waited until the solar prices dropped, which was late 2017. Then I got serious and did my due diligence. The numbers proved to be compelling, so I pulled the trigger and got the solar. Everything went perfectly, permits and all.

I fully knew prices would continue to drop. I am sure the cost is perhaps thousands less today.
People focus on the initial cost, with good reason. Oftentimes money goes on one thing or another... The solar is paying for itself and much more; I could have done worse. Now if I had bought TSLA in Dec 2018 instead of that stupid Model 3... Ha!

I have zero regrets. I love my solar.

 

[Cujet]

I have zero regrets. I love my solar.

And there is no question that done properly, solar can be a nice percentage of personal energy production. I'd love to see Tesla and other EV's have a connection for DC from solar panels.

However, those of us in the warmer areas must always recognize that the 2.2 hours of sun in a VT wintertime is woefully insufficient to do anything towards heating a home on a cold, dark night. Add in the fact that only 8 or 9 days are actually sunny per VT winter month, and you've got a perfect storm of uselessness. Just ask my brother in Burlington with his Tesla solar rig and heat pumps. None of which do anything at all come December.

 

[PandaBear]

And there is no question that done properly, solar can be a nice percentage of personal energy production. I'd love to see Tesla and other EV's have a connection for DC from solar panels.

However, those of us in the warmer areas must always recognize that the 2.2 hours of sun in a VT wintertime is woefully insufficient to do anything towards heating a home on a cold, dark night. Add in the fact that only 8 or 9 days are actually sunny per VT winter month, and you've got a perfect storm of uselessness. Just ask my brother in Burlington with his Tesla solar rig and heat pumps. None of which do anything at all come December.

If you are in VT why would you even consider solar? It wouldn't make sense.

Solar IMO is ideal for pairing with AC load. If you are not going to use AC (because of your house is build a certain way or you are not in a sunny place), there is not a lot of point in doing that.

The same as criticizing rice not being a cold climate grain or wheat not being a tropical grain, neither of them was the grain's fault, the farmers should plant the right grain in the right climate, just like solar installers should have.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

@alarmguy FYI I never take your posts as personal. I respect your opinion and knowledge.
@Shel_B AlarmGuy is not being negative; it is just a forum discussion with differing experience.

All good.

 

[350Rocket]

Name a car with a V8 from the 90's that got close to 30mpg. I don't remember any. The big difference is probably the safety aspect of it. Side impact protection, air bags, ABS etc all added extra weight.

If you do a search, there's basically two cars that come close at 26/28 mpg on the highway, there's no car that even comes close on the combined cycle.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Pow...ge=&tCharge=&startstop=&cylDeact=&rowLimit=50

And there's actually one car in the last 10 years that gets 30 mpg on the highway with a V8.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Pow...ge=&tCharge=&startstop=&cylDeact=&rowLimit=50

So you're wrong on both counts.

My 1980s caprices got 32mpg (imperial) so high 20s, back in the day on a long trip but that was before ethanol was in our gas. Now they can get about 25. Not rated EPA mpg, but calculated and double checked at the pump several times. I talked to a handful of others over the years that achieved similar numbers. The difference is a 5.0 v8 made 170hp whereas my current 4.8 v8 makes almost 300. Making more HP lowers fuel efficiency. So in a lot of cases we may get the same fuel efficiency but way more power than we had back then.
I disagree with the rest of his opinion though, because I'm an auto enthusiast at heart and love the sounds of an engine.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Better start planning to build some new nuclear power plants.

 

[Yah-Tah-Hey]

I seriously doubt electric vehicles are the coming thing for now. Maybe in decades down the road when nuclear energy comes back. Three Mile Island only proved the safety features worked.

 

[ripcord]

Prediction... California electrical rates top 40 cents a kilowatt hour within a decade. California sues neighboring state power generators for a larger slice of their output.

 

[PandaBear]

Prediction... California electrical rates top 40 cents a kilowatt hour within a decade. California sues neighboring state power generators for a larger slice of their output.

I think the peak hour rate is already 40c/kwh in some TOU schedule, or tier rate on top tier like 3 and above.

Still, this means nothing without comparison to gas price, last I check we are mid to upper $5 per gal now.

 

[ripcord]

I think the peak hour rate is already 40c/kwh in some TOU schedule, or tier rate on top tier like 3 and above.

Still, this means nothing without comparison to gas price, last I check we are mid to upper $5 per gal now.

I was talking about average rates, statewide, which I believe is around 19 cents. I'm paying around 9 cents, BTW, which is typical for most states.

How many Californians know they are paying double what the people in the majority of states pay? The price of gas is not relevant when considering that disparity.

 

[PandaBear]

I was talking about average rates, statewide, which I believe is around 19 cents. I'm paying around 9 cents, BTW, which is typical for most states.

How many Californians know they are paying double what the people in the majority of states pay? The price of gas is not relevant when considering that disparity.

Everyone knows we are paying nearly double, but price of gas (in terms of the "where is the electricity going to come from to charge evs") is totally relevant in this. People will still find electric being cheaper in the long run than gas if the vehicle is cheap enough, but at the moment plug in hybrid is still king.

Everything is "nothing" compare to housing cost though. What's another $75 a month when you can save money living FAR away and work from home or commute?