Weather prediction technology

[Snagglefoot]

I was pretty impressed by the weather prediction capabilities during the latest cold snap in the USA. On Nov 7, there was a prediction that a cold front was moving in bringing freezing weather to much of the country. It predicted 32 F for Tallahassee, Florida for Nov 14, one week ahead. Later in the week it changed to prediction to Nov 16. While it didn't quite freeze in Tallahassee, it did get down to 35 F. I thought that was a pretty good prediction. Any other observations out there?

Also I hear there is a winter storm out east. Drive carefully.

 

[Bambam]

I think it stinks ! We went from a Winter Storm warning at night, to a winter weather advisory at 5 am, back to a storm to a NorEaster by lunch. They are lucky to get yesterdays weather right!

 

[buster]

I follow these foks. They are pretty good.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

 

[Oildudeny]

snow fall had me out once last night and again this morning hoping this sun takes care the rest.

 

[Patman]

I find it funny that Accuweather gives a forecast almost 90 days in advance (for example, I can see the forecast for Feb 13th!) I'm going to be in Fort Myers in 3 weeks and I've been checking the forecast for that time period for about 3-4 weeks now (ever since I booked the trip) The forecast for that far away time period changes about every couple of days and it varies wildly from one forecast to the next. What's the point of them even wasting their time doing these super long range forecasts?? Even the two week forecasts change wildly from one day to the next. One week is about the limit for accurate prediction, IMO. (and even that's debatable)

 

[Boomer]

My favorite thing with the weather guys is you are driving along in a blinding rainstorm...wipers on high,,,people pulling off the road because of the volume of water coming down. Your radio is on and the local weather guy whose station is 2 miles away says"Chance of rain, 50% today". Don't they ever look out of the window? And then look at that 50% chance of rain forecast. What they are saying is maybe it will, maybe it won't. Always makes me laugh.

 

[andyd]

You guys need to move to Boston . The guys on 4 and 5 time squall lines down to the minute as they blow out to sea. Weather.com for my zipcode is very accurate too. The slop I'm presently experiencing was predicted last week.

 

[bullwinkle]

"Partly cloudy, with a chance of rain (summer, late spring, early fall) or snow (winter)". Wow, I'm a meteorologist!!

 

[Bambam]

Originally Posted by bullwinkle
"Partly cloudy, with a chance of rain (summer, late spring, early fall) or snow (winter)". Wow, I'm a meteorologist!!



You're better than most !

 

[E365]

Two winters ago in Minneapolis/Upper Midwest the snow storm predictions were pretty poor. It seemed most of the storms veered off the predicted course. The snow came, but the heaviest bands were around 50 miles away.

This past year they seemed really accurate though. They must have updated their modeling software/computers/procedures.

 

[Srt20]

They are somewhat accurate on temps. They are horrible on winter precip.

There is a new satellite that was fired up in orbit last year, or maybe the year before.

Joe B. is on Weatherbell. He is one funny character. I havent followed him at all in the last year, but for years he was predicting the next mini ice age. Major cold and snow. Its hilarious.


Edit; censor wouldnt let Joe B. last name through. B. A. S. T. A. R. D. I.

 

[buster]

Joe B. is a character. He's quite good at long range forecasting. I used to read his weather blogs back in the early 2000's.

 

[bullwinkle]

In their defense (somewhat) this recent storm blew up quickly, it intensified and was a lot colder than they predicted here-I looked at the radar the night before it here and said "Oh [carp]', I haven't got the snow tires on anything yet!".

 

[RamFan]

Originally Posted by Patman
I find it funny that Accuweather gives a forecast almost 90 days in advance (for example, I can see the forecast for Feb 13th!) I'm going to be in Fort Myers in 3 weeks and I've been checking the forecast for that time period for about 3-4 weeks now (ever since I booked the trip) The forecast for that far away time period changes about every couple of days and it varies wildly from one forecast to the next. What's the point of them even wasting their time doing these super long range forecasts?? Even the two week forecasts change wildly from one day to the next. One week is about the limit for accurate prediction, IMO. (and even that's debatable)


I took a meteorology class in my junior year of college ('11-'12) thinking it'd be an easy A, boy was I wrong! It was definitely a challenge, still ended up with an A I think, maybe a B, but I digress...

At the end of the semester he had a causal Q&A session and I asked him point blank, "We see all of these forecasts and extended casts, just how far can we truly predict?" His answer was one of the most honest answers I've ever heard, "Anything past 10 days is an absolute crap shoot." So you're assessment of one week being the limit is a reasonable observation.

To get back to the topic at hand, in Northern Illinois the predictions yesterday were all over the place. Some said no snow until early afternoon and then it would only be brief. Others stated evening but a low chance. Others said light snow all day. What we ended up getting was a few hours in late morning and another wave that lasted about an hour in the afternoon.

 

[buster]

I agree 100% RamFan. It's a tough science.

 

[PeterPolyol]

Yeah guys, predictions lol That's what it is