Weather Forecasting - Do You Expect Accuracy
- Thread starter Warstud
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I have the Weather Channel website bookmarked on my desktop. They get data from numerous weather stations located around my town, one of which is less than 1/4 mile away. That's the one that I have chosen as my "home" location.
I find it to be remarkably accurate. Especially when it comes to snow storms. If the hourly forecast says it will start snowing at 2 PM I find that I can expect snow to begin between 1:15 and 2:45 PM. And if it says to expect 6-8 inches of snow by the end of the day, that's pretty much what I get.
The temperature readings are a bit off though, but that could be that I'm up on a south facing ridge and get a lot of sunshine while most of my neighborhood is among tall trees and canyons.
I find it to be remarkably accurate. Especially when it comes to snow storms. If the hourly forecast says it will start snowing at 2 PM I find that I can expect snow to begin between 1:15 and 2:45 PM. And if it says to expect 6-8 inches of snow by the end of the day, that's pretty much what I get.
The temperature readings are a bit off though, but that could be that I'm up on a south facing ridge and get a lot of sunshine while most of my neighborhood is among tall trees and canyons.
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- Jul 14, 2020
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I believe ZERO any media outlet tells me (anyone).
Weather? I will give it a listen (most of the time they spend so much time convoluting the story that you can't figure out WTH you just listened to for the last 3 minutes, and all you wanted to know if it was going to rain, snow, sleet or sun shine that day.
As far as days ahead, yeah, pay attention for 72-96 hours ahead and follow that. You'll be able to make a decision about what you need to about 36 hours in advance, 70% of the time.
Otherwise, they are lying 99% of the time.
Weather? I will give it a listen (most of the time they spend so much time convoluting the story that you can't figure out WTH you just listened to for the last 3 minutes, and all you wanted to know if it was going to rain, snow, sleet or sun shine that day.
As far as days ahead, yeah, pay attention for 72-96 hours ahead and follow that. You'll be able to make a decision about what you need to about 36 hours in advance, 70% of the time.
Otherwise, they are lying 99% of the time.
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2020
- Messages
- 1,487
I live about 10 miles east of Lake Michigan; sometimes it warms the weather coming from the West, sometimes it cools it. It will disperse thunderstorms coming over from Wisconsin or Illinois, it will create lake-effect snow or rain. So I know the weather forecasts are a probability statement.
A friend of mine is als a retired meteorologist - he told me about experience, gut feeling and nose-in-the-wind back than, and that 7 day forecasts (with all that supercomputers) have a 50/50 chance to be right these days - pretty much the same quality as flipping a coin.Also back then we had 2 weather models to use along with your gut feeling...Now you have at least 10 models to go with and it seems that the gut feeling of the forecaster is gone...Everything is based on the models...The problem is that you have so many to pick from...The newer doppler radar has been a huge improvement to forecasting severe weather.... You can look inside the storm and see wind movement...needed to forecast a tornado.....Again weather forecasting has come a long way but has a long way to go....I always loved a book by **** Goddard a loved weatherman from Cleveland Ohio...On the cover he is looking out the door in the winter at the snow and the tittle of the book was... Six inches of partly cloudy...
The only reliable long time forecast I know is Wheatear Action from the UK - they have their own models that work totally different. But their track record is mind blowing. Unfortunately you have to pay for that forecast (and it's pretty expensive).
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