I have that book, for sure.As a retired Meteorologist...42 years... I think that weather forecasting has come a long way...but has a long way to go...IMO any forecast after about 7 days is not very good. I also see weather as being hyped up just like the rest of the media...It seems like every weather event is the worst ever and the end of the world is near...Also back then we had 2 weather models to use along with your gut feeling...Now you have at least 10 models to go with and it seems that the gut feeling of the forecaster is gone...Everything is based on the models...The problem is that you have so many to pick from...The newer doppler radar has been a huge improvement to forecasting severe weather.... You can look inside the storm and see wind movement...needed to forecast a tornado.....Again weather forecasting has come a long way but has a long way to go....I always loved a book by **** Goddard a loved weatherman from Cleveland Ohio...On the cover he is looking out the door in the winter at the snow and the tittle of the book was... Six inches of partly cloudy...
Weather Forecasting - Do You Expect Accuracy
- Thread starter Warstud
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Do meteorologists intentionally overestimate precipitation? I feel like we basically never get the amount of snow or rain forecasted so I wonder if they give themselves a bit of a cushion. Better to overestimate than underestimate and have everyone get upset type of thing.As a retired Meteorologist...42 years... I think that weather forecasting has come a long way...but has a long way to go...IMO any forecast after about 7 days is not very good. I also see weather as being hyped up just like the rest of the media...It seems like every weather event is the worst ever and the end of the world is near...Also back then we had 2 weather models to use along with your gut feeling...Now you have at least 10 models to go with and it seems that the gut feeling of the forecaster is gone...Everything is based on the models...The problem is that you have so many to pick from...The newer doppler radar has been a huge improvement to forecasting severe weather.... You can look inside the storm and see wind movement...needed to forecast a tornado.....Again weather forecasting has come a long way but has a long way to go....I always loved a book by **** Goddard a loved weatherman from Cleveland Ohio...On the cover he is looking out the door in the winter at the snow and the tittle of the book was... Six inches of partly cloudy...
As a retired Meteorologist...42 years... I think that weather forecasting has come a long way...but has a long way to go...IMO any forecast after about 7 days is not very good. I also see weather as being hyped up just like the rest of the media...It seems like every weather event is the worst ever and the end of the world is near...Also back then we had 2 weather models to use along with your gut feeling...Now you have at least 10 models to go with and it seems that the gut feeling of the forecaster is gone...Everything is based on the models...The problem is that you have so many to pick from...The newer doppler radar has been a huge improvement to forecasting severe weather.... You can look inside the storm and see wind movement...needed to forecast a tornado.....Again weather forecasting has come a long way but has a long way to go....I always loved a book by **** Goddard a loved weatherman from Cleveland Ohio...On the cover he is looking out the door in the winter at the snow and the tittle of the book was... Six inches of partly cloudy...
I have read literally thousands of forecast discussions on the WPC and local NWS...
For forecasting extended time frames aka greater than 5 daya it is almost unanimously the only models they bring up routinely are the GFS, European model and maybe the NAM and the Canadian model and the UKmet model and the SREF on rare occasions.
And in the last 8 years it has been almost always just the GFS and European models.
Depends on the source. Sometimes a TV met might be pushed by production to embellish, but that's not necessarily always the case. If multiple stations are forecasting 6-8 inches of snow and one is forecasting 1012 inches, which one might get a ratings bump from the forecast?
I have found that it's model analysis and knowledge of local or regional climatology that makes the biggest difference.
We have a A team at the local NWS who really do a very very good job of that.
We have a B team who candidly suck at that...
We have a A team at the local NWS who really do a very very good job of that.
We have a B team who candidly suck at that...
There are ensembles as well to those operational forecast models. And of course this doesn't get into the probabilistic forecasting elements that have gained traction.
I came here to say they are much much better than they used to be. It's not perfect.
When you consider how complex it is, I think meteorologists do a decent job. As computers advance so does forecasting.
Weather is defined as the state or condition of the lower atmosphere in a given moment of time. Considering that they can predict with relative accuracy what the state of the atmosphere will be several days out is pretty impressive to me. Of course it could always be better and will be as time goes on.
Weather is defined as the state or condition of the lower atmosphere in a given moment of time. Considering that they can predict with relative accuracy what the state of the atmosphere will be several days out is pretty impressive to me. Of course it could always be better and will be as time goes on.
I have seen this... December 26 2004 Where a distance of only 9 miles separated no snow at all and where 10 inches of snow fell... That was quite remarkable . From Western James city county no snow fell and yet Yorktown had 10 inches of snow.
Big January 2016 storm had 2-3 inches fall in the Hampton Roads area... My area we had 7 inches of snow and 18-20 inches of snow fell 45 miles north and west of where I live. That's quite the gradient in just 75 miles.
Big January 2016 storm had 2-3 inches fall in the Hampton Roads area... My area we had 7 inches of snow and 18-20 inches of snow fell 45 miles north and west of where I live. That's quite the gradient in just 75 miles.
I think that tv mets are overestimating everthing in weather now...got to keep the viewers coming back for more details...
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Lol!
I’ll watch the birds and deer like we did growing up. Or as folks here say “even a groundhog can predict accurate weather”
So, no o don’t believe even the local weather folks
So, no o don’t believe even the local weather folks
Hermann
Site Donor 2023
TV weather personalities have the only $xxx,xxx jobs where they can be wrong so often.
I find weather forecasting is usually about as accurate as the news reporting. Maybe slightly better.
I expect an honest effort. But sometimes even that is too much to expect.
When the NWS forecast is either "Sunny" or "Mostly Sunny".... and it is overcast all day long. And they never update the forecast either, once it is painfully apparent that the forecast is wildly wrong.
I guess there are days that they just don't bother to look out a window, or check the satellite images.
When the NWS forecast is either "Sunny" or "Mostly Sunny".... and it is overcast all day long. And they never update the forecast either, once it is painfully apparent that the forecast is wildly wrong.
I guess there are days that they just don't bother to look out a window, or check the satellite images.
