1) pretty much every OCI will show a slight uptick in metals right after an OCI. It is presumed to be a combination of the TCB being stripped along with residual from the remaining oil. There is no known study I'm aware of that has attempted to quantify how much of each contributor is doing what % of the result. I offer this for those who've not read it, or have and forgot about it:
Reviewing UOA Data Used oil analyses (UOAs) are tools. And like most tools, they can either be properly used or misused, depending upon the application, the user, the surrounding conditions, etc.= There are already many good articles and publications in existence that tell us how to interpret...
bobistheoilguy.com
2) I don't understand why some people here CONTINUALLY espouse that UOAs cannot be used track wear. That is patently untrue. There are multiple SAE studies which show excellent correlation between UOA wear metal rates and other wear measurement methods. If you trust the bombardment or weight analysis methods, then you have to trust the UOAs, because they all echo each other in correlation.
- GM filter study (HALT study)
- the "bus" study (field study)
- the Ford/Conoco study (field study)
UOAs are a reasonably accurate method to track wear trends and rates; they are far, far faster and cheaper than any other method anyone here could ever hope to find. It's not like tearing down an engine is quick and cheap; there are huge errors which can happen in a tear-down analysis. It's not like everyone here has electron bombardment equipment or hyper-sensitive weight analysis equipment in their garage. But for $20 or so, you can get a UOA from a reputable lab. UOAs show you a percentage of the wear metals, and you infer the relationship to the whole.
3) Why is it that people who look at the LUBE properties (vis, FP, dilution, etc) in a UOA with complete belief, then turn around and say you can't trust the metal counts from a UOA ??? Where's the logic in saying that only some portion of the UOA is valid, but another part isn't? That makes no sense. If you trust the VOA/UOA to tell you how much Ca or boron is present in the oil, why do you not trust it to indicate how much Fe or Al is in the oil ???? That is selective, biased, unbalanced logic.
4) it certainly is true that UOAs won't see all manner of wear particles, because they can only see particles less than 5um, give or take a bit. So wear particles which are larger than 5um go uncounted in typical spectral analysis. But, there are inferences one can draw in terms of relative population. This is done all the time; rather than count ALL elements in a group, a sample is taken and then % inferred. This "sample" methodology is used literally everywhere around the world in daily manufacturing SPC quality programs. One does not need to know the entire population count; you can take samples in get accurate estimates.
5) it is true that UOAs won't catch all wear; that is discussed above. The fact that a UOA may miss some impending catastrophic event in acedotcal evidence is not a reason to condemn the entire industry.
6) it is true that MOST people don't understand the benefits and limitations of UOAs, and grossly misuse and misinterpret the data they see. That does not make UOAs unworthy; it only means people don't use the tool properly. It's not the fault of any tool if it is misused or misunderstood.
I would challenge anyone to offer SAE study papers which show UOAs do not correlate to other methods of measurement. Show me a specific SAE study that sets it's protagonist theory to indicate that UOAs are inherrently inaccurate, and then succeeds in proving that theory. OTOH, I can name and discuss several which use UOAs and other methods in concert, indicating good correlation.
I have over 30k UOAs in my database; so many that honestly I've lost track of the count. I can tell you with the utmost certainty that wear rates will go up soon after an OCI, and then settle again in any "normal" engine-lube application. I cannot tell you how much of this is TCB vs residual, but then again no one else has ever studied it and logged an SAE paper, so there is no basis for denial. The facts show the wear trend phenomenon to be true. How much of it is due to any one particular cause is anyone's guess. But your denial of the phenomenon does not make it any less true.