water heater relief (2x) ... root cause help?

No expansion tank.

But why the two failures now, after 8 years of not having one???

Is it possible we're getting supply pressure surges (we're on city water)?
My city water pressure can spike past 70 PSI so ya either an expansion tank or regulator are in your future.

Edit: Reading more, bad thermostat based the heat by the vent pipe.
 
Has there been any large fires in the area recently? Fire departments often tell the water company to boost pressure on large incidents. Afterwards plumbers are busy replacing pressure valves and toilet fill valves clogged with sand/sediment
 
The water utility in my area is very small; only serves about 1000 homes or so. They are very responsive to calls; I spoke with the engineer today. He's confident there's been no spikes in pressure, which I tend to agree with. (He says they have a live tracking system and can see the highs/lows of the day.) I live way uphill from the bulk of customers (who live in a valley). At max, our pressure is around 40psi; sometimes as low as 35psi. They have to use a small booster pump just to get pressure that high for the 12 homes in my neighborhood. Pressure did not cause the issues I was having.

Honestly, I think it's just some form of failure inside the unit itself. Perhaps a build-up of calcium on the floor of the HX? Dunno.
 
Not sure what trips your wh, temperature or pressure. But what I had happen on my old. Hydronic boiler was that once I opened it (test) and it was fouled a bit, it was more likely to self open in the future. It did just that, so I had to bleed the system down and replace the valve.

That doesn’t explain the first incident, but could partially explain the second.

If it is oppressively hot, the firing temps and feed water temps could be higher. I can’t quite see how that would prevent the thermostat from operating, but if a solenoid was slow or sticky, perhaps.

The world will never know… unless the other one starts doing it (and is the same model, etc).
 
There may be two problems with the OP`s WH, one, the vent looks like it back drafted from the looks of the escutcheons [collars] that have melted and signs of condensation on the draft diverter. two, as to the T&P leaking if the new tank has no problem then great. Mineralization in the tank can exhibit the symptoms mentioned usually with audible expansion.
 
The thermostat at the gas valve is set "midline" (midrange). Same as it's always been.
I would measure the actual temperature right after a heat cycle at your closest faucet to the tank. I set mine at 120 degrees. It was higher. After setting the temperature ,that's when my T&P valve stopped releasing small amounts of water.
 
Rather than install an expansion tank when I had that situation I put a Watts Governor 80 pressure regulating ballcock in the basement toilet tank. Bleeds off the excess pressure( over 80 psi) into the toilet. Working great 25 years later. You may want to check your water pressure as well as a failed regulator can cause this issue.

Paco
 
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