War in Ukraine
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Originally Posted By: Trajan
Originally Posted By: LoneRanger
I think Russia's military is all show and no go. Didn't they almost got their [censored] handed to them by Germany in WWII?
Germany, and everyone else, thought the same thing after the Winter War. And no, they didn't nearly get their [censored] handed to them.
Russia lost somewhere between 21 and 28 MILLION people in World War II compared to the 6-9 million of the Germans. I don't know if I'd say they got their [censored] handed to them but without western intervention, I think Stalin would have continued to have his people slaughtered by much better trained and much better equipped forces.
The battle of Kiev is but one example of that (700,000+ casualties on the Soviet side). And of course conveniently ties into this discussion, LOL!
Originally Posted By: LoneRanger
I think Russia's military is all show and no go. Didn't they almost got their [censored] handed to them by Germany in WWII?
Germany, and everyone else, thought the same thing after the Winter War. And no, they didn't nearly get their [censored] handed to them.
Russia lost somewhere between 21 and 28 MILLION people in World War II compared to the 6-9 million of the Germans. I don't know if I'd say they got their [censored] handed to them but without western intervention, I think Stalin would have continued to have his people slaughtered by much better trained and much better equipped forces.
The battle of Kiev is but one example of that (700,000+ casualties on the Soviet side). And of course conveniently ties into this discussion, LOL!
Originally Posted By: Andy636
I will just put my 2C into this since we share a long stretch of border with Ukraine.
Let me put it this way: the only good things that ever came out of Ukraine are the Antonov 225 and the ukrainian pepper vodka.
At the moment they are at the bottom of the pit and they start digging even more, they are flat broke, no economy what so ever with a huge agricultural potential but still unable to produce enough to feed it's own people. They DO NOT CARE about what the EU wants...they just want to join for hand me downs and that's it. The same can be said about the Republic of Moldova.
Corruption is a form of art over there and you have to bribe people left and right if you want to do anything. The amount of smuggling at our border with them is colossal starting with small time cigarettes and booze and finishing with guns and drugs so I think it is fair to say it's like Europe's Mexico.
They depend on Russian gas and they ran up a big tab and now they refuse to pay so if I'd be pistoff too if I was Putin, not to mention they kinda "forgot" to pay other people too...they owe us about 580 mil for about 30 years now but they seem in no hurry to pony up the cash so forgive me for not considering them trust worthy.
As for the military side of the story...let's not kid our selfs, if the Russians desire they can take Ukraine in under a week as only about 40% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received the proper amount of training.
From someone who has a few friends from here, he is spot on.
It is quite the mess over there....and Putin is trying to get everyone on the "same" page.
This is just going to keep building steam......
I will just put my 2C into this since we share a long stretch of border with Ukraine.
Let me put it this way: the only good things that ever came out of Ukraine are the Antonov 225 and the ukrainian pepper vodka.
At the moment they are at the bottom of the pit and they start digging even more, they are flat broke, no economy what so ever with a huge agricultural potential but still unable to produce enough to feed it's own people. They DO NOT CARE about what the EU wants...they just want to join for hand me downs and that's it. The same can be said about the Republic of Moldova.
Corruption is a form of art over there and you have to bribe people left and right if you want to do anything. The amount of smuggling at our border with them is colossal starting with small time cigarettes and booze and finishing with guns and drugs so I think it is fair to say it's like Europe's Mexico.
They depend on Russian gas and they ran up a big tab and now they refuse to pay so if I'd be pistoff too if I was Putin, not to mention they kinda "forgot" to pay other people too...they owe us about 580 mil for about 30 years now but they seem in no hurry to pony up the cash so forgive me for not considering them trust worthy.
As for the military side of the story...let's not kid our selfs, if the Russians desire they can take Ukraine in under a week as only about 40% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received the proper amount of training.
From someone who has a few friends from here, he is spot on.
It is quite the mess over there....and Putin is trying to get everyone on the "same" page.
This is just going to keep building steam......
Originally Posted By: hattaresguy
One has to remember that no one really gives a [censored] about the Ukraine, what the question is is how expansionist is Putin. IE will he decide he wants next, or is this it.
Who knows other than his inner circle.
A couple decades from now I can easily see a Chinese, Russian alliance for a resources grab in their perspective spheres.
Ummmm...you can bet China would rather take it over first. The country does not believe in "allies".....
One has to remember that no one really gives a [censored] about the Ukraine, what the question is is how expansionist is Putin. IE will he decide he wants next, or is this it.
Who knows other than his inner circle.
A couple decades from now I can easily see a Chinese, Russian alliance for a resources grab in their perspective spheres.
Ummmm...you can bet China would rather take it over first. The country does not believe in "allies".....
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Putin seems to be betting on our desire to avoid a shooting war between nuclear powers.
Part of me really wishes we would call that bet, i.e. crush his military and dare him to launch. I know that's a colossally stupid idea, and I would never actually advocate it. I just can't escape the feeling.
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
China is a wild card in all of this.
China cannot be too gleeful about the actions of its neighbor to the north and there have been armed clashes along this border in the past.
Could the Chinese be awaiting a serious commitment of Russian forces to launch their own land grab?
They have demonstated in the past that they aren't afraid to tangle with Russian troops.
Putin seems to be betting on our desire to avoid a shooting war between nuclear powers.
Part of me really wishes we would call that bet, i.e. crush his military and dare him to launch. I know that's a colossally stupid idea, and I would never actually advocate it. I just can't escape the feeling.
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
China is a wild card in all of this.
China cannot be too gleeful about the actions of its neighbor to the north and there have been armed clashes along this border in the past.
Could the Chinese be awaiting a serious commitment of Russian forces to launch their own land grab?
They have demonstated in the past that they aren't afraid to tangle with Russian troops.
I really doubt that The Russians would go in to large scale war. Right now there economy is mostly based on selling gas to western Europe. That would stop really fast. Also the moment they face the eu members. They would be facing a whole different enemy.
Originally Posted By: antiqueshell
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
What you're implying is that our geopolitical mistakes make it okay for Russia to be geopolitically reckless.
.
Yes
My wife often tells me I'm far too eager to give people the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I should listen...
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
What you're implying is that our geopolitical mistakes make it okay for Russia to be geopolitically reckless.
.
Yes
My wife often tells me I'm far too eager to give people the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I should listen...
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
Good point. Still risky and costly though, right? Obviously less so than all-out war, but still more than sanctions, no?
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
Good point. Still risky and costly though, right? Obviously less so than all-out war, but still more than sanctions, no?
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: simple_gifts
David Brooks casually mentioned an effective tactic. Every oligarch's kid studying at western boarding schools and colleges should be sent home; it is really time to play dirty.
LOVE this idea.
If anything costs any US oligarch a dime of profit, it'll never happen. See Germany's response to Russia currently...
Originally Posted By: simple_gifts
David Brooks casually mentioned an effective tactic. Every oligarch's kid studying at western boarding schools and colleges should be sent home; it is really time to play dirty.
LOVE this idea.
If anything costs any US oligarch a dime of profit, it'll never happen. See Germany's response to Russia currently...
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
Good point. Still risky and costly though, right? Obviously less so than all-out war, but still more than sanctions, no?
Both risky and costly.
The question is what Putin's ultimate goals really are, though.
Does anyone doubt that Putin would like to recreate the USSR?
Does Putin think that he can accomplish this while the West does little more than express its dismay?
Does anyone think that Putin is acting without the advice and support of the Russian oligarchy?
If we really fear that Russia will move quickly if unchallenged, then it may be less risky and less costly in the long run to act sooner rather than later.
How much has been written about how differently things might have turned out had Germany been challenged seriously early in its quest to gain the terrirory of other nations?
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
There are military options short of a shooting war.
A naval blockade is one of them.
It's unlikely that the Russians would challenge a couple of American carrier groups, since while they could probably kill a couple of American ships, it would cost them their best attack subs along with the rest of the assets they like to call their "navy".
Russia is seriously lacking in naval power, and China's navy remains a joke.
Good point. Still risky and costly though, right? Obviously less so than all-out war, but still more than sanctions, no?
Both risky and costly.
The question is what Putin's ultimate goals really are, though.
Does anyone doubt that Putin would like to recreate the USSR?
Does Putin think that he can accomplish this while the West does little more than express its dismay?
Does anyone think that Putin is acting without the advice and support of the Russian oligarchy?
If we really fear that Russia will move quickly if unchallenged, then it may be less risky and less costly in the long run to act sooner rather than later.
How much has been written about how differently things might have turned out had Germany been challenged seriously early in its quest to gain the terrirory of other nations?
That is also a big point in Russia's favor. THEY have all the natural gas that all of WESTERN EUROPE needs to function, and frankly I am surprised that Putin hasn't stated, (maybe he has in private communications to NWO leaders) that if the US and EU continue to sanction Russia, he will stop the flow of nat gas to most of Europe. Game over.
I think Putin doesn't care about Western Ukraine, who the heck would it is poor, unproductive, with no natural resources and they are NOT ethnic Russians. Putin rightly so would be happy to let the NWO have that. He only cares about a buffer zone for Russia which is the eastern half of the country.
I think Putin doesn't care about Western Ukraine, who the heck would it is poor, unproductive, with no natural resources and they are NOT ethnic Russians. Putin rightly so would be happy to let the NWO have that. He only cares about a buffer zone for Russia which is the eastern half of the country.
First off, the sale of natural gas to EU buyers is one of the few supports Russia's shaky economy has.
Cutting the supply lines to Western Europe would be a very risky move for Russia and its economy and therefore for the regime in power. Putin knows this. Putin also knows that the West already has contingency plans in place to deal with this possibility. An embargo on Russian gas imports by the EU would hurt Russia more than it would Western Europe, and the Europeans might chose to make the timing of any embargo their own rather than waiting for Putin to impose one on his terms.
Second, a couple of the EU states and the United States have among them control of the entire world financial system.
If Putin is thinking of playing economic games with the West, he'll be utterly crushed.
Sanctions are only effective for those who have the means to levy and enforce them.
Putin's Russia has neither.
Incidentally, upper case is not used for emphasis in the modern lexicon of American English.
Cutting the supply lines to Western Europe would be a very risky move for Russia and its economy and therefore for the regime in power. Putin knows this. Putin also knows that the West already has contingency plans in place to deal with this possibility. An embargo on Russian gas imports by the EU would hurt Russia more than it would Western Europe, and the Europeans might chose to make the timing of any embargo their own rather than waiting for Putin to impose one on his terms.
Second, a couple of the EU states and the United States have among them control of the entire world financial system.
If Putin is thinking of playing economic games with the West, he'll be utterly crushed.
Sanctions are only effective for those who have the means to levy and enforce them.
Putin's Russia has neither.
Incidentally, upper case is not used for emphasis in the modern lexicon of American English.
A lack of resources (nat gas, and others), will certainly deal a crushing blow to the fiat financial system in those countries.... possibly.
It might make things a bit uncomfortable for Russia, but who will have heat and power? Those who have the basic natural resources in large quantities at hand do best.
Contingency plans? Sure, for a short term emergency..but for the long term, those WESTERN EUROPEAN nations will be crushed over the long haul. Russia and her allies will have the energy to power their infrastructure which will allow it to survive, and fact is Russia is a survivor over history.
I like the idea of a multi-polar world where no one elite has a monopoly, it helps to have them battle one another, it keeps them weak and less able to reach a goal of a neo-feudal world order. That in my view includes the elite in the west, and Israel.
It might make things a bit uncomfortable for Russia, but who will have heat and power? Those who have the basic natural resources in large quantities at hand do best.
Contingency plans? Sure, for a short term emergency..but for the long term, those WESTERN EUROPEAN nations will be crushed over the long haul. Russia and her allies will have the energy to power their infrastructure which will allow it to survive, and fact is Russia is a survivor over history.
I like the idea of a multi-polar world where no one elite has a monopoly, it helps to have them battle one another, it keeps them weak and less able to reach a goal of a neo-feudal world order. That in my view includes the elite in the west, and Israel.
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Originally Posted By: R80RS
Originally Posted By: JAG
After USSR collapsed, I never would have guessed that this would happen anytime in my lifetime. It is beyond my comprehension why so many eastern Ukranians want their area to become part of Russia.
It happened before under Putin's watch in 2008-09 when Russia invaded and carved up Georgia. The world looked the other way then, so you can be excused for not remembering.
The east of Ukraine is home to many ethnic Russians, who are linguistically and culturally Russian. Hence the desire to attach themselves to Russia.
Cultural Russification is not limited to to Ukraine. Large segments of Belarus and the Baltic states are also home to significant populations who consider themselves Russian first. I don't think this ends with Ukraine. In fact, Russia may already be preparing a move on the Baltic states.
They're not moving into the Baltic states, which are part of NATO. NATO would be obligated to defend them, unlike in the Ukraine or The Crimea...
Originally Posted By: JAG
After USSR collapsed, I never would have guessed that this would happen anytime in my lifetime. It is beyond my comprehension why so many eastern Ukranians want their area to become part of Russia.
It happened before under Putin's watch in 2008-09 when Russia invaded and carved up Georgia. The world looked the other way then, so you can be excused for not remembering.
The east of Ukraine is home to many ethnic Russians, who are linguistically and culturally Russian. Hence the desire to attach themselves to Russia.
Cultural Russification is not limited to to Ukraine. Large segments of Belarus and the Baltic states are also home to significant populations who consider themselves Russian first. I don't think this ends with Ukraine. In fact, Russia may already be preparing a move on the Baltic states.
They're not moving into the Baltic states, which are part of NATO. NATO would be obligated to defend them, unlike in the Ukraine or The Crimea...
Originally Posted By: dave1251
The west will not intervene not until it is too late and the Soviet Block is reassembled.
I hope the Russian's will stop there. But there is always what if's.
Um, most of the Soviet block are now part of NATO...
The west will not intervene not until it is too late and the Soviet Block is reassembled.
I hope the Russian's will stop there. But there is always what if's.
Um, most of the Soviet block are now part of NATO...
Really?
Then why do you suppose that Russia remains a poor country, although as rich in resources as you claim?
To achieve wealth and stability, Russia would need a rule of law with strongly defined property rights.
It's never had that, not under the Czars, not under the Soviets and not under the current government. The current government is just as inclined to usurp the property of its citizens as any that's come before. At least the Soviets didn't pretend that private property rights existed.
Russia and her allies?
She hasn't any of any consequence and I doubt that the Russian people can eat natural gas, nor can they make vodka from it.
How do suppose that Western Europe got along in the many decades of modernity prior to the advent of pipelines full of cheap gas from Russia?
Did they starve in the freezing darkness?
That wasn't what I saw when in Europe prior to the cheap gas bonanza.
Then why do you suppose that Russia remains a poor country, although as rich in resources as you claim?
To achieve wealth and stability, Russia would need a rule of law with strongly defined property rights.
It's never had that, not under the Czars, not under the Soviets and not under the current government. The current government is just as inclined to usurp the property of its citizens as any that's come before. At least the Soviets didn't pretend that private property rights existed.
Russia and her allies?
She hasn't any of any consequence and I doubt that the Russian people can eat natural gas, nor can they make vodka from it.
How do suppose that Western Europe got along in the many decades of modernity prior to the advent of pipelines full of cheap gas from Russia?
Did they starve in the freezing darkness?
That wasn't what I saw when in Europe prior to the cheap gas bonanza.
Originally Posted By: antiqueshell
I find it amusing when the US "pontificates" to Russia when it comes to areas surrounding their own borders.
Remember when the US stole Texas from Mexico? Probably not.
Not only that but the Ukraine is only a recent "invention" and was a part of Russia for centuries. Also a fact is that a large majority of the eastern part of the Ukraine is ethnic Russian as well. If they want to rejoin Russia, or become an independent state with close ties to Russia I say certainly. Let the western part of that area become the new Ukraine with its wish to become closer to the glorious western new world order, no question their lives will be much better in the orbit of the west. LOL
That being said while Putin is no saint, he is looking out for the interests of Russia and no one else, unlike the globalist west which is bent on destroying their own countries for the
perverted dream of a New World Order.
For those who insist on claiming that the mention of a
"New World Order" is the imagination of theorists...look at this
LOL
A lovely pseudo-history, but the actual reasons there are Russians in the east of the Ukraine is that many actual Ukrainians starved in a massive famine in the late '20's and early '30's. Stalin then placed 'planters' in to supplant the Ukrainian elites...
I find it amusing when the US "pontificates" to Russia when it comes to areas surrounding their own borders.
Remember when the US stole Texas from Mexico? Probably not.
Not only that but the Ukraine is only a recent "invention" and was a part of Russia for centuries. Also a fact is that a large majority of the eastern part of the Ukraine is ethnic Russian as well. If they want to rejoin Russia, or become an independent state with close ties to Russia I say certainly. Let the western part of that area become the new Ukraine with its wish to become closer to the glorious western new world order, no question their lives will be much better in the orbit of the west. LOL
That being said while Putin is no saint, he is looking out for the interests of Russia and no one else, unlike the globalist west which is bent on destroying their own countries for the
perverted dream of a New World Order.
For those who insist on claiming that the mention of a
"New World Order" is the imagination of theorists...look at this
LOL
A lovely pseudo-history, but the actual reasons there are Russians in the east of the Ukraine is that many actual Ukrainians starved in a massive famine in the late '20's and early '30's. Stalin then placed 'planters' in to supplant the Ukrainian elites...
Originally Posted By: LoneRanger
I'd say the wehrmacht pushing to 20 miles outside of moscow and causing 1 million russian casualties tends to qualify as nearly handing them their [censored].
Not really. What that shows is that it was somewhat idiotic to attack the Soviet Union because they could take those losses and still mount a huge comeback (albeit with significant Western Allied aid). Mainly, the Soviet Union outnumbered Germany in resources and manpower at a ratio of about 3:1. Combine that with a vast expanses of the Soviet steppes and Britain on Germany's Western Front, you have a recipe that says there's no way to win a war of attrition.
The German Army (Heer) was also a largely rail-bound, and horse cart supported army that lacked mechanization despite the much storied panzers at the front. The idea of Blitzkrieg is largely a myth...
Quote:
Had Hitler not been an insane evil megalomaniac (then of course none of WWII would have happened anyway...) and micro managed his generals Germany would have prevailed on the eastern front.
Then what was Stalin? The Generalissimo was also an evil megalomaniac that not only "micromanaged" his generals, he EXECUTED HIS BEST ONES!! You can't give the German military as pass because of Hitler anymore than you can mock the Red Army with Stalin breathing down their necks...
Quote:
Plenty of those under the boot of stalin in the satellite holdings of ussr saw the German army as liberators, not conquerers (because they were conquered by stalin...)
True to an extent, until the Heer and SS started stealing their clothes and food. Because Operation Barbarossa was little more than a huge war crime that was predicated on the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Russian and Soviet civilians to work because the Wehrmacht knew they could never maintain the necessary logistics any other way. And while Hitler could be a military idiot, many on his general staff (even the ones that hated him) agreed that if the Heer got to the Dnieper Dniester Rivers, that the Red Army would be destroyed. They did, and it wasn't. The Soviets had massive reserves of manpower and some solid weapons' systems like the T-34...
Quote:
Read How Hitler could have won WWII: The fatal errors that led to nazi defeat by Bevin Alexander before you heap too much glory on the former ussr in WWII.
...
There's almost no way Nazi Germany could have won WWII. They didn't have the navy to take England, and they didn't have the manpower and resources to conduct a prolonged war against the Soviet Union. Once the United States entered, they were finished...
I'd say the wehrmacht pushing to 20 miles outside of moscow and causing 1 million russian casualties tends to qualify as nearly handing them their [censored].
Not really. What that shows is that it was somewhat idiotic to attack the Soviet Union because they could take those losses and still mount a huge comeback (albeit with significant Western Allied aid). Mainly, the Soviet Union outnumbered Germany in resources and manpower at a ratio of about 3:1. Combine that with a vast expanses of the Soviet steppes and Britain on Germany's Western Front, you have a recipe that says there's no way to win a war of attrition.
The German Army (Heer) was also a largely rail-bound, and horse cart supported army that lacked mechanization despite the much storied panzers at the front. The idea of Blitzkrieg is largely a myth...
Quote:
Had Hitler not been an insane evil megalomaniac (then of course none of WWII would have happened anyway...) and micro managed his generals Germany would have prevailed on the eastern front.
Then what was Stalin? The Generalissimo was also an evil megalomaniac that not only "micromanaged" his generals, he EXECUTED HIS BEST ONES!! You can't give the German military as pass because of Hitler anymore than you can mock the Red Army with Stalin breathing down their necks...
Quote:
Plenty of those under the boot of stalin in the satellite holdings of ussr saw the German army as liberators, not conquerers (because they were conquered by stalin...)
True to an extent, until the Heer and SS started stealing their clothes and food. Because Operation Barbarossa was little more than a huge war crime that was predicated on the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Russian and Soviet civilians to work because the Wehrmacht knew they could never maintain the necessary logistics any other way. And while Hitler could be a military idiot, many on his general staff (even the ones that hated him) agreed that if the Heer got to the Dnieper Dniester Rivers, that the Red Army would be destroyed. They did, and it wasn't. The Soviets had massive reserves of manpower and some solid weapons' systems like the T-34...
Quote:
Read How Hitler could have won WWII: The fatal errors that led to nazi defeat by Bevin Alexander before you heap too much glory on the former ussr in WWII.
...
There's almost no way Nazi Germany could have won WWII. They didn't have the navy to take England, and they didn't have the manpower and resources to conduct a prolonged war against the Soviet Union. Once the United States entered, they were finished...
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