U.S. may soon become world's top oil producer

[friendly_jacek]

Originally Posted By: Tempest

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5290


From the same source:

Quote:
The United States remained a net importer of crude oi


I did not know about the total net export of petroleum products. I stand corrected on that.

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Why of course! Government always does best!

You know where I stand, I'm a free market kind of guy. But the sale of oil to other countries directly undermines this one. It may need a tax on exports or some such lever to make an incentive to sell it here.

Well, it looks like what you want already exists, but there are problems with this:
Quote:
But the increasing domestic output of light sweet crude is a poor match for U.S. refineries, which have been reconfigured to process much heavier and sulphurous oils and need heavier oils to produce more heating oil and diesel.

Pressure will therefore build for the federal government to permit crude exports.

And:
Quote:
If U.S. light crude production continues to grow, it may eventually be necessary to approve swap arrangements with refineries further afield.

The main constraint is political. U.S. refiners can be expected to lobby fiercely against swap transactions, since they benefit most from the over-supply of captive domestic crude. And export opponents will be able to mount a powerful emotional appeal to keeping "American oil" at home for American use.

Against this, domestic producers will lobby to be allowed to export to maximize the economic value of their output, and will likely receive strong support from trading companies.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-column-kemp-us-oilexports-idUSBRE89E0OQ20121015

 

[friendly_jacek]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
Quote:
The reasons for the coming dump is the demand destruction caused exactly by the high prices in the first price.

Say what?

 

[Tempest]

Why is there a strong dip in 2008 when prices were
This graph is much more useful:

As can be seen, gas prices vs. miles driven have a weak relationship.

Also:
Quote:
The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 4+ years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 50 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/07/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-increased-23.html


So I'm not sure of what you are trying to state with your graph?

 

[friendly_jacek]

I don't understand how you don't see the obvious. Miles started going down since gas prices stared hitting $3/gal ie: 2005-2007. The trend accelerated greatly when gas hit $4 in 2008 and in 2011. It was flat when gas was cheap in 2010.

Sure, employment and demographics play a role, but there in no denial, the more expensive fuel, the less driving. Especially if high prices trigger another recession and driving will go downhill again. IMHO, the damage is done, the only matter is how soon.

 

[Samilcar]

Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8

Oil should be treated as a strategic resource and is really 'owned' by the citizens of the country it was extracted from.


This is what Mexico decided in the 1930's when it nationalized all of its oil fields. Unfortunately, this has led to the Mexican oil industry becoming used as a federal jobs program. Since Pemex has to spend all of its revenue employing excess people, it's been forced to let its infrastructure decay. Oil production from Mexico is now declining, while right across the border in Texas, oil production is booming.

 

[SteveSRT8]

In our area the real unemployment rate is perilously close to 15% or maybe even greater.

To ignore or discount this as a factor in miles driven is simply cherry picking the stats to support your beliefs.

 

[GMBoy]

Let me just throw this out --- everyone instantly attacks cars and fuel mileage. True, more effiecient cars and trucks will help us use less oil. HOWEVER - oil is NOT all about gasoline. Oil is used in so many other things like plastics and other durable goods, heating oil, industry, etc. Every use of oil has to be conserved, not only cars/trucks.

 

[HerrStig]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Originally Posted By: johnnydc
Originally Posted By: KevGuy
What about the oil sands of your northern neighbour?

I agree. The U.S. and Canada should keep it for ourselves.

Exactly. Oil should be treated as a strategic resource and is really 'owned' by the citizens of the country it was extracted from.

So you want the government central planning oil supplies and deliveries?
ANd the oil they produce from drilling rigs 100 miles offshore? I note Cuban "territorial waters", exploited for oil by the Chinese, creep closer and closer to the Keys.

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted By: John_K
Free gas for everybody!

John


That'll never happen no matter what. The U.S. will continue to increase production as long as they can get top dollar...if supply ever gets so high that it causes a price drop, they'll roll back production...we'll never get a brake on the price...

 

[Clevy]

Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: John_K
Free gas for everybody!

John


That'll never happen no matter what. The U.S. will continue to increase production as long as they can get top dollar...if supply ever gets so high that it causes a price drop, they'll roll back production...we'll never get a brake on the price...


Sad but true.

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: grampi

That'll never happen no matter what. The U.S. will continue to increase production as long as they can get top dollar...if supply ever gets so high that it causes a price drop, they'll roll back production...we'll never get a brake on the price...

And I suppose that you voluntarily took pay cuts so as to help out your employer?

 

[PandaBear]

There are 2 flaws in this assumption:

1) That the rest of the world is not going to use the same technology to boost their production. We may not be #1 but the more production the cheaper oil will be for all of us.

2) That this technology is cheap enough to make the oil price drop (or prevent it from going up further).

My main concern is whether oil price will remain low.