The EV battery discussion thread (bogus breakthroughs)

[Rmay635703]

Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl
Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl


Keep in mind that towing and heavy equipment is not a target market of BEV (Battery EV). Hybrid yes.


I disagree. Ford, Tesla, Rivian, and others are all working on trucks. Trucks that will be asked to do real work.



I guarantee that any "EV" truck sold with a towing package will have some sort of ICE attached to it. They can't overcome physics (i.e. gravity, coefficient of friction) with batteries alone.


If I could like this I would, EV Trucks are a great idea for dock to stock or yard haulers but beyond that are wasteful

 

[JeffKeryk]

Cujet, please offer your thoughts:

Tesla Million Mile battery

There are numerous articles on this...

 

[Cujet]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Cujet, please offer your thoughts:

Tesla Million Mile battery

There are numerous articles on this...


I don't doubt that the batteries will be able to go many cycles without difficulty. It seems that 5000 cycles may become the new normal. What we don't know is time. These batteries are very expensive and it's risky to assume they will last 20 years. Like it or not, there have been a large number of Telsa battery swaps done under warranty. Including my Friend's Tesla. He's happy because they provided upgrades. Out of warranty may be an issue.


Some Tesla owners get refurbished batteries with degraded capacity. One owner's range dropped to 200. Maybe more interestingly, the older batteries tend to self-discharge at far higher rates. That's something we don't have a handle on yet. In other words, when new the self discharge rate is nearly nil, after a couple years, it may be 1% per day or more and is expected to reach 10% per week.

 

[97prizm]

This is why I'm shocked that PepsiCo, Walmart, JB Hunt and others threw millions of dollars at Tesla for their "revolutionary " semi, when 1. According to Tesla hasn't been driven on two plus years 2. Needs a special Hyper- ultra-mega- charger to charge and Tesla has 0 in development or installed 3. Has pushed delivery back AGAIN from 2019 then 2020 to now they they think the end of 2021. Again they're waiting for that "battery breakthrough" to sell them. And now according to Electrek.co there are $250,000 smucks who have handed over money for a "pickup truck " thats not even remotely close to production from Tesla. When Musk says Tesla is way overvalued that should say something.

 

[zzyzzx]

I disagree. Ford, Tesla, Rivian, and others are all working on trucks. Trucks that will be asked to do real work.

Trucks that are used as commuter vehicles.

 

[gathermewool]

What’s the purpose of this thread? What is the ideal form of energy in your opinion? Gas fo’ life, H2, fuel cell, other?

I guess the point is to showcase the fact that any new tech is flawed and requires extensive resources to perfect and innovate. I’m fine with your opinion on the issues involved with advancing a promising new tech, but you’re posting more of a hit piece than reality check of sorts.

One might equate battery tech to ICE tech in that we’ll see only incremental changes over the next hundred years. Instead, we may see some leap in tech evolution that provides something we’ve never seen before. I’d personally put my money on something in between revolutionary and evolutionary. But that’s just me.

Even if battery revolutionary change is a pipe dream and advancements take decades at a time...can you imagine showing the latest ICE tech to designers 50 years ago and telling them that it‘s not only more efficient, but powering bloated safe-mobiles of the future AND lasting, on average, well over 100k miles without any major maintenance?! I bet they’d flip their lid. Imagine what EVERYONE will be putting out for BEV in fifty years!

I also feel that to dismiss changes in software, eg, battery design, layout design, charging algorithms is disingenuous, at best. How much has gasoline changed over the years? It’s the computers and incremental changes in design, also the result of increased processing speed and processes, that has made gains possible on economical scales.

//


Like battery tech there are other renewable technologies that need max funding. One example involves not only improving solar tech, but designing it such that a large percentage of the old tech can be properly and profitably recycled.

All of it may be a pipe dream, but so too was fission energy at one point. Like fission, all it takes is some misinformation and Luddite propaganda to make progress nearly impossible.

 

[blingo]

But that's been the purpose of the thread: A floating review of future performance from past perspectives to get archived Without the vintage designers that didnt make the fission cars happen those chinese BTE figures of 43% on petrol (BYD, the people with the nail through their EV-battery) and >50% on diesel now wouldn't impress at all. There'd be ever higher expectations as fueled around the second generation Ultium phantasies (half the costs) or the Fraunhofer's anticipation of 2000 kilometres "Spatial ALD" ranges. Early adopters' consolidated fears of loss could become uncontrollable!

And it was some essay of critique. Perfectly fine. The Cadillac thread on the other hand where there's nothing to see and still folks cannot move along because it's no longer Ford against GM but Ford and Musk and BMW against the general transformation in transition...

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

What’s the purpose of this thread? What is the ideal form of energy in your opinion? Gas fo’ life, H2, fuel cell, other?

I don't pretend to speak for CJ but I think I can answer that and its not what most people immediately jump to.

When it comes to the EV ( and all of the tenets) there are 2 distinct and radically different areas.

You have the legitimate engineering ceilings based on LEGITIMATE science and physics ( which all machines are subject to) and the EV's legitimate place/purpose/limitations in the great pie chart (s) such as market share and contribution to the overall things such as resource conservation, cleanliness etc.

Then you have the "agenda driven" hype that is factually false, selectively worded, manipulated and obfuscated to make this "technology" some sort of a universal cure all that "must be done" for "purposes other than those stated above". The next echelon is to declare war on all conventional energy for our "safety" when the proposed energy sources simply are not capable of replacing them.

They often use the pseudo scientific deflection of "technology" ( like living in a Star trek episode) as some sort of "answer" when in the cold hard Euclidian/Newtonian universe we live in- "technology" is just a process to achieve an end. The problem here is that there is no element known that is capable of the properties necessary to "magically' replace current energy sources in miracle batteries to create an equal replacement in all areas where it would be a zero sum replacement.

Since the required materials do not exist ( until more things are added to the table)- no amount of "technology" or research or political gerrymandering is going to make them 'appear". ( and then work as required). The purveyors of these things know this which is why they continuously use "custom metrics that are meaningless" to generate "numbers" they "convince" people of. That's not legitimate science.

Using me as an example, I personally support the first scenario 100% in all areas at all times and fully agree there is a legitimate place for them.

OTOH, I will stand and challenge and rebuke factually every false point brought up and used by those in group 2.

That's whats being pointed out.

 

[wemay]

I'd take a hybrid over an EV right now BUT, the evolution of EV technology will catchup sooner (5yrs) rather than later.

 

[blingo]

Batteries seem to come down to 100-70$/kWh now, the necessary chemical plants in vehicle exhausts appeared to remain more stable in price. One of the "ceilings" regarding diesel hybrids in particular. Proper alternatives like Dimethyl-ether can be illegal in tractor pulling – it's complicated when the ceiling replaces the commodity in fetishism.

 

[UncleDave]

Batteries and "revolution" or "breakthroughs" aren't terms that have legitimately coexisted.

What has been realistically happening and is most likely to continue to happen is "evolution" vs "revolution."
I do not believe that a new magic recipe will come out of nowhere and completely change this game.
We have been seeing, and what I believe we will continue seeing are incremental gains in and around battery tech.

Things like increase in pack density, better pack manufacturing techniques utilizing the pack as a stressed element.
More efficient motors, chargers, inverters, pack cooling heating, HVAC all contribute to get more usability from a finite power source.

As far as the million mile battery goes its more of a million mile package, and we aren't far off from it now.
Take the newest 4680 based packs that are estimated to give 500 mile range and multiply that by a pretty standard 2K cycles and you are there.
On Battery day Elon and team discussed the plan to bring down costs to around 50.00 per KWH with a variety of incremental improvements vs any revolution to get there and bring the costs down to around 25K for what roughly costs 37 K today.

The question really isnt when well reach some numerical milestone, but more of when will a holistic package be "good enough" for some one to choose BEV over Ice.

Im super curious - why is a million battery important when we can be almost assured the rest of the car won't go that distance?
We dont worry about million mile engines.

For passenger vehicles I could argue from experience than in many ways whats available today or within 24 months is in many cases good enough and in certain cases better than owning an ice vehicle.

For pickup trucks that carry a chair every now and then but mostly serve as big passenger cars- whats coming up in gen 1 will be fine.
For pickups that tow heavy objects long distances - I'd estimate we are 10-15 years from a workable replacement for an ICE truck.

Semis are a bit different with the ability and space to carry really large packs - Id estimate we're 10 years away from local route replacement and 15-20 away from long haul replacement.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

The question really isnt when well reach some numerical milestone, but more of when will a holistic package be "good enough" for some one to choose BEV over Ice.

UD, I respectfully disagree on your analysis of the question. (In the same breath, I agree it SHOULD be the correct question)

In a fair environment, "good enough" should be an individuals personal choice based on the numerous inputs such as cost, payload, lifecycle and what not measured against the individuals specific circumstances.

That's not what is actually going on. There are entities out there with hidden motives (yes, some misguided and others malicious) that are not only deliberately and willfully distorting the truth about EV's and their capabilities ( specifically steering away from the true total costs in infrastructure, tax increases, cost to individuals etc.) to DELIBERATELY mislead the "sheeple" into a false belief and sense of security.

This is proven out in the open by statements like 'going to ban" fossil fuels, automobiles and so forth. That's not legitimate science growing into its own for a benefit to all. That's pushing an agenda and gradually misleading the sheeple until its too late to stop it. Those types are not offering a "choice' they are dictating terms as suits their agenda while trying to sooth and placate feelings.

Theres words for that and a specific type of people who do that.

 

[UncleDave]

I'm vehemently against removal of choice.

I'm in no way am a fan, or supportive of "good enough" being anyone else choice but the consumer, and preferably an educated consumer that understands the pros and cons of their choice, but those are a rare breed these days.

 

[Cujet]

What’s the purpose of this thread?

How much has gasoline changed over the years?

It was to originally started to discuss the bogus battery "breakthroughs".

Gasoline engines are about as efficient today as the best ones were in the late 1930's, please don't go picking terrible examples such as Chevy flat head engines. It may be interesting to note that aircraft engines achieved 34% thermal efficiency in regular use, and peaked at 40% thermal efficiency in the late '30's, the very same as the best Toyota engines today.

Like today, this was done via intelligent engineering.

 

[PimTac]

Trucks that are used as commuter vehicles.

Check out the television series Long Way Up. They used Rivians and they got a workout to boot.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

I'm in no way am a fan, or supportive of "good enough" being anyone else choice but the consumer, and preferably an educated consumer that understands the pros and cons of their choice, but those are a rare breed these days.

Fully concur but I think the bolded is the intended result of a deliberate design and execution of events and circumstances leading up to that final state so they would be "ripe for suggestion" without the ability to critically think for themselves or lack the moral courage to stand up and act if they did figure it out.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Im super curious - why is a million battery important when we can be almost assured the rest of the car won't go that distance?
We dont worry about million mile engines.

UD, the idea is to repurpose batteries in other vehicles and other purposes.

“What they’re talking about with million-mile batteries is not so much that an average consumer would put a million miles on the clock,” said Simon Lambert, a co-lead investigator at the Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries project at the UK’s Faraday Institution, “but that you’d potentially be able to use the battery multiple times, either in vehicular energy storage or grid-connected stuff.”

One might consider that million mile batteries are environmentally important; since batteries take considerable energy to produce, there’s a solid environmental argument for extending their life.
It seems to make sense that 2nd life batteries woud be used in less demanding applications due to degredation.

 

[Rmay635703]

The original title is somewhat misleading.
I have been reading about all manner of breakthroughs for over 30 years, on the topic of ultralight steel bodies, carbon fiber, engines, tires , houses, you name it.
Heck the Dodge Neon was supposed to be a powerfull direct injection 2 cycle (yeah that never happened)

In that time most all haven’t occurred but I can honestly tell you the only ones that DID HAPPEN

Where decades late and all battery related.

In the 80’s and 90’s all there was were nicd (expensive) Duracell’s and lead acid.
There was talk of various NIMH and lithium super batteries and guess what? 20-30 years later they were in hybrids and BEVs

I never figured I would live long enough to see real options let alone hybrids let alone plug ins being something I could buy at any car dealers.

There have been real breakthroughs but they never were around the corner, more like decades away.

Trucks that are used as commuter vehicles.

Based on a month long
visual count Along a busy Texas highway it was found less than 1% of pickups had a load or were towing, so I guess it’s a big market

I'm vehemently against removal of choice.

I'm in no way am a fan, or supportive of "good enough" being anyone else choice but the consumer, and preferably an educated consumer that understands the pros and cons of their choice, but those are a rare breed these days.

Then you should be vehemently opposed to sky high registration taxes on small old economy cars that “make up” people’s minds about what kind of vehicle they own.

I know I have changed vehicles due to these policies to avoid the fine, I’m sure others have as well.

 

[gathermewool]

It was to originally started to discuss the bogus battery "breakthroughs".

Gasoline engines are about as efficient today as the best ones were in the late 1930's, please don't go picking terrible examples such as Chevy flat head engines. It may be interesting to note that aircraft engines achieved 34% thermal efficiency in regular use, and peaked at 40% thermal efficiency in the late '30's, the very same as the best Toyota engines today.

Like today, this was done via intelligent engineering.

I gotcha and now read your OP in a different light. Good topic!

When I mentioned gasoline I was being literal. The fuel, gasoline, hasn’t changed at all, by and large, with the exception of TEL in passenger cars, of course. That’s a whole other discussion, though. What I meant to say, is that gasoline hasn’t changed much, but the ICE package (systems, sub-systems, control circuitry, EMISSIONS systems and sub-systems) have changed so much over such a long period of time so as to be very remarkable were today‘s and technology from 50 years ago to be put side-by-side and compared directly. Sure, the efficiency of ICE is based on its design/cycle, but it’s how we control those losses that would otherwise go to ambient, along with changes in things like aero, lubricants, weight savings in materials, etc. that have resulted in a pretty impressive MPG (I used this interchangeably with efficiency, sorry) despite (and because of) the complexity of the overall package.

//

One thing that seems to get people up in arms, but I’m fully a proponent of, is subsidies and tax incentives, for now. Battery tech needs to improve sooner than later. I believe that as much as I believe we need to more rapidly re-adopt nuclear power as a green form of energy. Advances in both allow for more to be done with less, truly passive safety features, economies of scale and packages that can be easily manufactured.

I’m still learning about all of this and know there’s no right answer regarding fostering vs forcing new tech (speaking of new in decades, not months or years, btw). I do know that the empty threat of banning something makes some feel good and other angry, but what may or may not happen is the industry improving at a more rapid pace. I bet many companies COULD change their transition-to-PHEV timelines a bit, but they may also hedge their bets that, come time for the “ban” any consequences will be found to be minor, if anything, and worth the initial risk they MAY have taken to not dump all ICE development...

 

[UncleDave]

UD, the idea is to repurpose batteries in other vehicles and other purposes.

“What they’re talking about with million-mile batteries is not so much that an average consumer would put a million miles on the clock,” said Simon Lambert, a co-lead investigator at the Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries project at the UK’s Faraday Institution, “but that you’d potentially be able to use the battery multiple times, either in vehicular energy storage or grid-connected stuff.”

A stationary reuse of a dying pack is a great place for it to live out the remainder of its life.