The bellweather stock I will watch to see how the US and global economy is doing

[Leo99]

I assumed for inflation!

Exactly. For the price of a few Starbucks you can air up tires at home and avoid all the drama of free air stations. The free air station near my house often has a line of cars 4 deep.

A lot of poor folks somehow afford a pack a day cigarette habit and have money left over for beer. People find the money to spend on vices.

 

[gfh77665]

A lot of poor folks somehow afford a pack a day cigarette habit and have money left over for beer. People find the money to spend on vices.

And tats. And bling. And drugs.

 

[Pablo]

And tats. And bling. And drugs.

Kinda amazing that they also complain how lousy they have it.

 

[doublebase]

My friend and I sit there everyday wondering how people are still spending like wild sailors. Because unlike before, they can’t just borrow the money and make those easy payments...not with the interest rates hike. Yet they still do.

And everyone still has to eat and fill up their gas tanks. My weekly grocery bill is pushing $300, plus we might do takeout a night, and we usually go out to dinner once a week....add that and it’s another $250...add the fuel cost and I’m throwing another $100 bucks a week. So, $650 a week just to drive to work and feed the family. And I’m somewhat responsible. What’s really killing me is taking a family of 4 out for dinner every single week - my kids aren’t little anymore - my daughter will order a drink and my son can eat the entire left side of a menu Hopefully my newly graduated from college daughter will soon find employment and be able to toss a few bucks into this equation.

But we have to heading into a recession, right? This can’t be sustainable.

 

[Dave Hess]

Lots of people are now using Buy Now Pay Later to purchase things and have no intention of paying.

 

[LDB]

Drinks are insanely expensive, and that's the teas and sodas. Alcohol is a lot more from what I hear. We don't drink alcohol so I don't know. We drink water and save enough so every fifth meal is effectively free. For $250 we could have one of our favorite takeouts and one favorite dinner out five times. That's for two so 2.5 times equivalent. If we could go back to adding a side-order of mean tweets we could have done 8-9 times on $250. Just gotta love our inflated built better meals.

 

[Pablo]

Drinks are insanely expensive, and that's the teas and sodas. Alcohol is a lot more from what I hear. We don't drink alcohol so I don't know. We drink water and save enough so every fifth meal is effectively free. For $250 we could have one of our favorite takeouts and one favorite dinner out five times. That's for two so 2.5 times equivalent. If we could go back to adding a side-order of mean tweets we could have done 8-9 times on $250. Just gotta love our inflated built better meals.

Me too. Many mixed drinks are upper teens, over $20!! Holy cow. Indeed. My body has zero use for alcohol.

 

[Dave Hess]

Me too. Many mixed drinks are upper teens, over $20!! Holy cow. Indeed. My body has zero use for alcohol.

Yep. No alcohol for me since I was a teen, seen a few people destroy their life drinking.

 

[Dave Hess]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/americans-need-over-11k-more-to-keep-2021-standard-of-living-report

Some families are struggling financially.

 

[brianl703]

Kinda amazing that they also complain how lousy they have it.

I've noticed that many people like that--nothing is ever their fault. They accept zero responsibility for what happens to them.

 

[Pablo]

I've noticed that many people like that--nothing is ever their fault. They accept zero responsibility for what happens to them.

And they have not really even tried with any effort at much anything in life. American Dream Lost.

 

[LDB]

I've noticed that many people like that--nothing is ever their fault. They accept zero responsibility for what happens to them.

Participation trophy children. It's a directional consequence.

 

[Leo99]

Participation trophy children. It's a directional consequence.

It's been going on longer than that.

 

[Pablo]

It's been going on longer than that.

Pretty sure his post wasn't limited to a single gen, but yeah really acceleration began when the flower power people started popping out kids. Generations who really have not experienced hardships, contrary to what the brain and backside might say, are not the best thing for humankind in the long run. Lazy begets lazy. Human nature.

Humans need drive. It's the way we are wired.

 

[hrv]

Lots of people are now using Buy Now Pay Later to purchase things and have no intention of paying.

just like a lot of student loans.....

 

[PandaBear]

This is how I see it:

Starbucks is not really a coffee business, but rather a lifestyle and real estate business. People have been paying $4-6 for their drinks since I think late 90s early 2000s, so it is pretty much always like that. If you look at other high price drink places like boba shop and Jamba Juice they are all about this price. This is what the market is for sugary unhealthy drinks. Their business model was and still is, always a high traffic high income area regardless of rent. People go there for a good time instead of great coffee.

It is probably very obvious but let me explain here. There are 3 America, the below upper middle class one who has been struggling since probably the 90s when manufacturing left, and the upper middle class who does pretty well and have the disposable income to lift up the majority of the consumer spending outside of necessities, and then there's the high networth investors who have family offices and husband / wife have to take separate flights due to risk of a plane crash killing an entire organization's majority ownership (ridiculous for us commoners but a real thing for large public corps, like Micron losing its former CEO in a personal plane crash).

The 2 extreme ends are always going to stay where they are due to the nature of economy, the upper middle class have been cutting their spending based on some Walmart and Target spending data I have seen a couple weeks ago.

Your Starbucks were just not managed correctly if it takes 19 mins to get 3 drinks. I know a cafe owner who decided to close his peak customer days because he cannot afford to hire people at $21/hr untrained and stay in business on those days, because he cannot demand customers to pay more during those days and he can't run a business alone. Customers expect the same price whenever they visit instead of on demand pricing like Uber and Butcher and Seafood pricing in Safeway.

 

[PandaBear]

My grocery getter gal is an avid coffee drinker. We have no Starbucks in my small town. There is a drive-thru only small joint though.
I was with her twice, when she stopped for some fancy coffee and choked on the cost. It was over $8 for a big cup!

This is for a gal that is lucky to pay her bills! She has priority's wrong. Told her to drive to Casey's and get a cup for $2. Some people never get it. But the place always has 10 cars or so in line in the AM. Must be working for them.

Sugar is an addictive substance, just like cocaine and other narcotic, except it is legal.

 

[PandaBear]

One comment on the video stated: "I grew up in Portland. To me this video is basically the Statue of Liberty at the end of Planet of the Apes…"

One of the remaining sellers in the mall does have some sunglasses left for sale I saw.

It is a shift in consumer behavior that kills the mall. People don't go there other than to return online purchase now, and most just buy online to ship home instead. This has been priced into the REIT's mall portfolio.

Next will be offices, they will shrink down quite a bit and many older lower quality ones would be torn down for residential buildings to accommodate the increased need for space in WFH setup, especially in the large metros.

 

[PandaBear]

Fun fact, there are 2 Starbucks in the Tropicana Atlantic City. One in the Quarter, and another near the boardwalk. I'm also guessing that it's not the only place with 2 Starbucks.

That's nothing. Back in 2002 or so I see 2 SB across the street from each other in San Francisco downtown... That tells you what business they are in and it is not coffee.

 

[PandaBear]

This stock market has been going sideways for almost 4 years now. I’m not sure if I like it or not but I’m getting used to it so won’t mind if it stays this way.
Pretty much everything is a rotation and reasonable money to be made speculating on categories or just safety of solid companies.

My biggest wonder is, are we building a strong base or will we be a sideways “Japan” scenario for one to two decades.
I only wonder the sideways thing because of the unprecedented amount of national debt that still is unrestrained

Japan's national debt is WAY WORSE than us on a per capita and per GDP ratio.

They really aren't free market like we are if you look at their culture and government. They are trying to keep stability of their people's life, including those who are already retired, those companies who hire a lot of people and influence their economy, and the bad debts they got since the 90s bubble burst.

They would keep a rural school open for ONE student, with 6 staffs, till he graduated. In any other country it would be closed and the student bused elsewhere daily. In Japan they would keep a rail line running into a rural area and not close it, and run a deficit, because they just want to keep things steady and not rock the boat. This is how they run up such a huge deficit and Mrs Watanabe invest their household funds in foreign markets instead of their own stock markets / bonds. They know their own stock and bond markets are manipulated.

I will stop here before it goes political, but US has a much better chance of avoiding Japan and S Korea's problem since we actually are market driven. For those of us who wants to control this and mandate that, please look at Japan and see what you will get if you get what you wish for.