"The balloon" shot down
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One thing I never saw mentioned in all the "shoot it down over Montana" talk is the chance of starting a grass fire. If Eastern Montana doesn't have snow cover right now, that could have been a lot more likely than debris causing damage or injury.
Fire, wind, and dry grass are no joke on the High Plains.
Fire, wind, and dry grass are no joke on the High Plains.
The Germans flew Zeppelins filled with hydrogen over Britain in WWI. The Brits could attack them with aircraft and shoot lots of holes in them but it took a long time to figure out how to get them to burn.
I only vaguely remember the discussion but I think the problem was that they were filled with pure Hydrogen which, in the absence of oxygen, doesn't burn.
One of my older patients remembered Zeppelins flying overhead and dropping small bombs.
Lots of questions : I’m wondering when it was first detected. Would it have progressed over Taiwan, Japan, then over the vastness of the Pacific before approaching say the Aleutians before crossing into North America? Did other countries spot it and alert the USA and we allowed it to continue on for whatever reason? Were we aware of it before it crossed over into N America and decided to observe it for a couple of days and in doing so deemed it not a national security threat? Was it being tracked by NORAD? Why destroy it immediately after it clears N.America and after it had meandered over the entire continent for a week? IMO the odds of it crashing over NW Canada or Montana and the debris falling killing someone would be about the same odds as winning $1.5 billion on the Powerball lottery. I’m pretty sure it spent some time over N.C. to get to S.C. from the N.W. and I wouldn’t have had any qualms of giving the go ahead to destroy it at most anytime during its “flight” over N. America.
And only one coastline and continent too late.
Many seem to think that high altitude balloons are uncommon. They’re not. We launch them, other countries launch them. I’ve seen them. They’re well above airliner, or even military, traffic.
Knowing whether it is weather or soy requires some close up imaging, which likely can’t be done until it’s over land.
By then, a shoot down is a poor idea. You can’t get the risk of civilian casualties to zero.
It wasn’t until this one was determined to be “not weather” that a shoot down could be considered.
Knowing whether it is weather or soy requires some close up imaging, which likely can’t be done until it’s over land.
By then, a shoot down is a poor idea. You can’t get the risk of civilian casualties to zero.
It wasn’t until this one was determined to be “not weather” that a shoot down could be considered.
My biggest question is based on the prevailing upper level winds, this thing had to have penetrated the Alaskan ADIZ several days before drifting across Canada and then entering Montana. But all the news reports along with the Pentagon spokesmen acted like they were caught off guard. Surely this wasn’t the case.
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The first thing I thought of when I heard of the balloon was the Japanese balloon bombs from WW2. Glad it wasn't that. I do think it was safer shooting it down over water though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb
According to one report I read, the missile used was an AIM-9X and it was fired from approximately 58,000 ft.
Although, seeing that type of detail in a news report on something I would assume would have some secrecy around it, does make me question it.
Dude, don't muddy this armchair-generaling, tinfoil hat-wearing conversation with facts!
I’m fully qualified as an armchair general, but prefer to be called admiral…
Of course the Navy has to be different…I’m fully qualified as an armchair general, but prefer to be called admiral…
I'm only here for someone to post what the payload truly is/was. Thanks.
Then, if true, that thing had a lot more of a heat signature than I would’ve guessed. I had assumed it was ambient temperature and cold.
If it were in fact a Chinese balloon, any data was uplinked to satellites and China had it pretty quickly. I’m not convinced that it was a Chinese balloon. It looked a lot like a Raven Aerostar balloon. Of course, it could have been a Chinese copy.
I just read a news report that claimed the missile was an AIM-9X Block 2 that used data link from the launch F-22 for guidance for at least part of the flight path, if not all. I have no prior knowledge either classified or unclassified of the capability of this missile, or the accuracy of the report.
If, as a country, we have any hair on our covered regions, when we receive the Chinese diplomatic protest we will respond with not an apology, but with a bill for $400k for the cost of the missile. And then impose serious sanctions until the bill is paid.
If there was a digital camera sensor part of the, uh, "civilian payload" it likely reached temperatures of up to 110°F in video mode. That's a small area but a significant heat signature at an ambient temperature of around -70°. A high-altitude camera would also require a heater for a digital camera sensor to work as the latter usually stop working around freezing temperatures.
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What's going on with the other balloon in Latin America? Why are we not hearing anything about it?
Should have shot it down over Alaska. They average over 100 plane accidents/crashes a year. Not any mention of injuries or deaths risked by all those falling birds in their sky.
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