Tesla US Sales Numbers

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Quattro Pete
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Probably safe to say that most people who buy a 5-Series/E-Class/etc. over a Model S are making a bad call.

Do you mean from a driving dynamics perspective?

As an overall package. The Model S drives better than anything in the big luxo-sedan segment except the Panamera, and it has lower NVH, better passive safety, and lower running costs than any of them. For most people, the range is enough to have them covered from day to day, and the convenience of never having to visit a gas station blows away the rare inconvenience of having to rent a car or fly for longer trips.

There are a few niches where other cars make sense. If you're CONSTANTLY taking 150+ mile road trips, chauffeuring basketball players, or can't find it in you to be okay with a $60,000-level interior in an $80,000+ car, then by all means get your 5-Series/E-Class/whatever. But I'm pretty sure that covers no more than a minority of people who buy cars like this.

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Kestas
IIRC, Tesla is moving more toward battery production to keep their company afloat. I believe they are resolved to the fact that their cars won't keep their company viable.

Pretty sure battery production was the endgame from the beginning. The cars were never supposed to keep the company afloat in the long run.

AFAIK, the main point of the cars is just to speed up the industry's movement toward electric powertrains. That's why they opened their patents. Battery production is where the long-term business prospects are.

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Huie83
I think they need to simplify and build a $20-25K commuter, not everyone wants all the fancy electronics etc in their DD. I would like a electric daily driver to take on my 30 mile commute to work but even at $35K that's still too expensive for DD duty.

You could purchase a new $20K car to commute in and the difference in price between it and a EV ( with gas @ $3) would pay for gas/maintenance for the life of the car...

I think you're looking at it the wrong way around.

If you have to go as low as $20k to get something with a comparable or better TCO, you'll be comparing an econobox to one of the best-driving and safest sedans ever made. Unless you fit into one of the niches I described above, choices don't get much clearer than this.

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Kestas
IIRC, Tesla is moving more toward battery production to keep their company afloat. I believe they are resolved to the fact that their cars won't keep their company viable.


LOL, locking up all that precious lithium in stationary substation applications and people's houses...where lithium simply isn't needed.

Are you saying lead-acid would cut it, or...?

 

[demarpaint]

Originally Posted By: Y_K
The stock price is up anyway. TSLA is capitalized higher than Ford now.


I laughed when I heard that yesterday.

 

[MolaKule]

Originally Posted By: BrocLuno
...Trump won't do carbon tax. We'll see what his successor does ...

Carbon Tax: A false tax built upon false premises.

 

[demarpaint]

Originally Posted By: MolaKule
Originally Posted By: BrocLuno
...Trump won't do carbon tax. We'll see what his successor does ...

Carbon Tax: A false tax built upon false premises.

 

[MaximaGuy]

First off TSLA is a great risk taking company that did what others could have done with deep pockets.
Second they make very intelligent vehicles and sustained quite well over the years.

Hats off to them, hope they become the next Toyota.

 

[Matagonka]

Sounds like Tesla surpassed GM yesterday. Oil companies are not happy.

My wife wants the model 3. Keeps bugging me.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/04/tesla-...-u-s-automaker/

 

[RooflessVW]

The Model 3 may have its 15 minutes of fame, but the major players will catch up to and eventually surpass Tesla.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Kestas
IIRC, Tesla is moving more toward battery production to keep their company afloat. I believe they are resolved to the fact that their cars won't keep their company viable.


LOL, locking up all that precious lithium in stationary substation applications and people's houses...where lithium simply isn't needed.

Are you saying lead-acid would cut it, or...?


Seems stupid to put a relatively rare, light element, that's prized for it's lightness in transport and phones...and is relatively rare, just to re-emphasize it into stationary power grid applications, when there are plenty of heavier alternatives that can't power your phone or car....

Plenty of alternatives...
https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/ubbthreads.php/topics/4141423/Levelised_Cost_of_Energy_Stora

But just like energy (lack of) policy, we will waste the most highly utilitarian resources early...

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Kestas
IIRC, Tesla is moving more toward battery production to keep their company afloat. I believe they are resolved to the fact that their cars won't keep their company viable.


LOL, locking up all that precious lithium in stationary substation applications and people's houses...where lithium simply isn't needed.

Are you saying lead-acid would cut it, or...?


Seems stupid to put a relatively rare, light element, that's prized for it's lightness in transport and phones...and is relatively rare, just to re-emphasize it into stationary power grid applications, when there are plenty of heavier alternatives that can't power your phone or car....

Plenty of alternatives...
https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/ubbthreads.php/topics/4141423/Levelised_Cost_of_Energy_Stora

But just like energy (lack of) policy, we will waste the most highly utilitarian resources early...

Ah. Good points.

I mean, to be fair, Li-ion batteries do work a lot better than lead-acid, especially when deep discharges are to be expected. Tesla is pitching the Powerwall partly for off-the-grid use, so I'm sure that's an important consideration.

I'm sure a lot of it is just economies of scale, though. Tesla is making a LOT of Li-ion batteries, and no other kind AFAIK...

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: rooflessVW
The Model 3 may have its 15 minutes of fame, but the major players will catch up to and eventually surpass Tesla.

Yep. Whenever they get it together, they will squash Tesla Motors like a bug.

Who knows when that'll be, though? Right now, no one's even close...

 

[RooflessVW]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: rooflessVW
The Model 3 may have its 15 minutes of fame, but the major players will catch up to and eventually surpass Tesla.

Yep. Whenever they get it together, they will squash Tesla Motors like a bug.

Who knows when that'll be, though? Right now, no one's even close...

Completely untrue. VAG is constructing Europe's largest battery plant and is shifting focus to electric propulsion in the wake of Dieselgate. BMW is leading the industry in composote construction and is realsing their all-electric 3er in 2018.

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: rooflessVW
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: rooflessVW
The Model 3 may have its 15 minutes of fame, but the major players will catch up to and eventually surpass Tesla.

Yep. Whenever they get it together, they will squash Tesla Motors like a bug.

Who knows when that'll be, though? Right now, no one's even close...

Completely untrue. VAG is constructing Europe's largest battery plant and is shifting focus to electric propulsion in the wake of Dieselgate. BMW is leading the industry in composote construction and is realsing their all-electric 3er in 2018.

Oh, of course. My point is that neither has an electric car on the road that's even vaguely competitive. I'm not even sure they have anything in the pipeline, honestly. An electric 3er will be interesting, but as a modded IC platform it'll have a very hard time against vehicles that were designed as electric from the ground up. The i3 is great for what it is, but the Model 3 will crush it (cheaper and better in most respects). The e-Golf is pretty laughable if we're honest. What am I missing?

Again, in time, I'm sure they will crush Tesla Motors. It'll just take time.

 

[Y_K]

Are the sales falling due to diminished demand or production capacity constraints?

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Kestas
IIRC, Tesla is moving more toward battery production to keep their company afloat. I believe they are resolved to the fact that their cars won't keep their company viable.


LOL, locking up all that precious lithium in stationary substation applications and people's houses...where lithium simply isn't needed.

Are you saying lead-acid would cut it, or...?


High energy storage density is required in a mobile application, but not in power backup for houses. I wouldn't care how much space a backup battery took in my basement, or how much it weighed, so marine-grade lead-acid deep-cycle batteries would be OK.

Also the design of the battery changes depending on the maximum amount of power that you want to get out of it. Tesla should not be using the same battery for the Ludicrous Mode P90d that they are using for the Powerwall. A house requires about 8 kW of power to run the basic systems, and draws that power continuously.

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: A_Harman
High energy storage density is required in a mobile application, but not in power backup for houses. I wouldn't care how much space a backup battery took in my basement, or how much it weighed, so marine-grade lead-acid deep-cycle batteries would be OK.

Don't think I disagree that a good lead-acid deep cycle battery would work. But as I said above, it's not like Li-ion is advantage-free in this application. Even "deep cycle" lead-acid cells aren't as good as Li-ion cells with sustained low current draws or deep cycles, no? Given that these batteries are aimed partly at people who want to live completely off the grid with solar cells (charge in daytime, use at night), I'd think that'd be relevant.


Originally Posted By: A_Harman
Also the design of the battery changes depending on the maximum amount of power that you want to get out of it. Tesla should not be using the same battery for the Ludicrous Mode P90d that they are using for the Powerwall. A house requires about 8 kW of power to run the basic systems, and draws that power continuously.

I know they use different configurations and sometimes slightly different cell types even within the Model S range. I sincerely doubt the Powerwall uses "the same battery" as the P90DL.

 

[badtlc]

deep cycles are torture on lithium ion batteries unless it is one of the more special ion types which are not widely used.

 

[badtlc]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d

I know they use different configurations and sometimes slightly different cell types even within the Model S range. I sincerely doubt the Powerwall uses "the same battery" as the P90DL.


I have done work with Tesla on the power side of things. They don't have much variety in their cell types. Don't be surprised if they use the same cell types in everything. Implementation/application engineering matters a lot as it determines when you oversize banks and when you don't. Some applications require 20 year planning. Some require 6 months guarantees. When I have used Tesla, they were the same product no matter what as far as cell type went.