Tesla Stock

[Torrid]

You know what's interesting? Tesla isn't anywhere on the "Greenest list". Wasn't it Elon that kept spouting how "green" and "environmentally friendly " Tesla is?

That's the list as its posted without the full breakdown which I would be curious to delve into with more time, but I can't figure out how the heavier EV6 and the Toyota BZ4X make it over the Model 3. It has to be something with sourced location of materials or something to do with the manufacturing process. I don't think it's a surprise that the Prius takes the win on this one.

To be honest, I don't know how it looks for the overall Tesla numbers. I didn't buy a Tesla because I was trying to save the environment though. I'm sure most will understand this, but I bought it because it's the one my wife wanted and frankly I like how it drives too. We weren't able to source a single one of the EVs on this list for a test drive when we ended up buying the Tesla just because they were all unobtainium then. We tried, especially with the Toyota. We couldn't have had one if we tried at the time. I've never seen the Lexus RZ 300e in person before.

 

[Torrid]

@97prizm I did some digging and this is where the highest spot Tesla shows in relation to the rest of the list. It would have landed somewhere in the second list if it wasn't specifically excluding EVs. Still not sure how the Model Y fairs better than the equivalent Model 3 considering the 3 is lighter and slightly more efficient per mile in testing. This list seems to disagree with that.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Another 4% today.

 

[cptbarkey]

If you have TSLA stock in your portfolio and can afford to sit on it for a few more years you'll be glad. If your brains can only comprehend P/E ratios of their EV production and what is seen as flattening demand for those EV's and you have EDS (Elon Derangement Syndrome) then you can be glad you aren't supporting the company.

"There’ll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year, Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan said. And in 2025, it’ll be worse yet: volumes will drop."

What do you prognosticate will happen in 2 years?

 

[JeffKeryk]

"There’ll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year, Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan said. And in 2025, it’ll be worse yet: volumes will drop."

What do you prognosticate will happen in 2 years?

If the Tesla Model 2 sees the light of day by 2026, they will sell a bazillion of them. Until then, YOY growth will continue but not at the meteoric rate the market has come to expect.

I'm a long term hold on my TSLA; you?

 

[dishdude]

If the Tesla Model 2 sees the light of day by 2026, they will sell a bazillion of them. Until then, YOY growth will continue but not at the meteoric rate the market has come to expect.

I'm a long term hold on my TSLA; you?

Too bad they're focused on small volume lifestyle trucks and roadsters. Halo cars seem to be the focus.

 

[cptbarkey]

If the Tesla Model 2 sees the light of day by 2026, they will sell a bazillion of them. Until then, YOY growth will continue but not at the meteoric rate the market has come to expect.

I'm a long term hold on my TSLA; you?

Teslas track record is extremely poor when it comes to delivering product on time, which I am certain the analyst comments took into account when they said what they said.

 

[DwightFrye]

Some of you assume that Elon and the upper management staff at Tesla have learned nothing in the last 10 years and will continue to make the kinds of mistakes that they have in the past.

I'm not a financial expert but I predict that Tesla will continue to achieve growth quarter over quarter for many years to come although it may not be in double digit numbers. And they will continue to be more profitable than most of not all other automakers, ICE or EV. A few luxury brands like Porsche and Mercedes Benz who overprice their vehicles and options may continue to lead the profit per vehicle charts.

So if you want to compare near-future Tesla performance with the kind of numbers they posted in 2020 through 2022 they may seem disappointing. However if you compare them to other vehicle manufacturers they should still be impressive.

I wouldn't take any predictions from someone who works for Wells Fargo as being very sound. They aren't exactly known for being the best and brightest people in the financial industry.

I'm holding my shares. I don't need the money at this point. If and when TSLA hits $400 per share, it will be interesting to see if the experts can break down what percentage of that value comes from their EV sales and what percentage comes from their new products. My guess is maybe 35% from EV's and the rest from other divisions. But what do I know. I won't really care either. As long as they are successful.

 

[alarmguy]

Some of you assume that Elon and the upper management staff at Tesla have learned nothing in the last 10 years and will continue to make the kinds of mistakes that they have in the past.

I'm not a financial expert but I predict that Tesla will continue to achieve growth quarter over quarter for many years to come although it may not be in double digit numbers. And they will continue to be more profitable than most of not all other automakers, ICE or EV. A few luxury brands like Porsche and Mercedes Benz who overprice their vehicles and options may continue to lead the profit per vehicle charts.

So if you want to compare near-future Tesla performance with the kind of numbers they posted in 2020 through 2022 they may seem disappointing. However if you compare them to other vehicle manufacturers they should still be impressive.

I wouldn't take any predictions from someone who works for Wells Fargo as being very sound. They aren't exactly known for being the best and brightest people in the financial industry.

I'm holding my shares. I don't need the money at this point. If and when TSLA hits $400 per share, it will be interesting to see if the experts can break down what percentage of that value comes from their EV sales and what percentage comes from their new products. My guess is maybe 35% from EV's and the rest from other divisions. But what do I know. I won't really care either. As long as they are successful.

We are just discussing here but you seem to blow by factual statements from Tesla itself so it is very relevant criticism when they do not perform as they are the ones that build up expectations.
So here you say you wont take predictions from Wells Fargo as sound. Well, I will agree with you on ANY investment firm predictions!!!
SO let's go to the source and that is where your statement falls apart.

Tesla stated just this year that it is going to be a dismal year so how are investment houses wrong to agree?

It was Tesla themselves that primed the public to think they would continue double digit growth in their statements just last year,
When do we hold them accountable? Well they are being held accountable with the trashing of the stock. It's only fair, no longer does the stock command what was an insane P/E ratio of nearly 100 as they are not delivering on their promises. There is no denying this.
AS of today the stock needs to go up nearly 140% to get to its high in Nov 2021.

Yet here we are, 2024 Tesla warning about pathetic growth this year when last year they were talking up 50% growth.
Well that isnt happening anymore, so we need to hope and pray (for those investors) that something will pull them out of this slump in the next few years. Maybe they will, in the meantime the S&P is at all times highs and Tesla is not participating.

Here is Tesla, just one year ago -

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/tesla-earnings-top-forecasts-musk-vows-50-annual-growth-rate

So now we have smaller margins and really slow growth not anywhere near 50%

 

[SC Maintenance]

I'm not a financial expert but I predict that Tesla will continue to achieve growth quarter over quarter for many years to come although it may not be in double digit numbers.

Well, if your predictions come true, then there overvalued by 2X currently - because the majority of S&P500 companies achieve growth quarter over quarter for decades and the average P/E is around 20 even in this over-valued market. Historical average is like 16.

In fact, most pay a dividend, and raise it each year. Tesla pays no dividend, - so maybe Tesla is 3X too much?

However if you compare them to other vehicle manufacturers they should still be impressive.

Toyota Motor has a P/E of 10, so by that measure Tesla is 4X overvalued. Toyota Motor pays a dividend - so now Tesla is overvalued 4.5X from Toyota Motor.

The entire reason Tesla is and was valued as they were is the expectation of forever exponential growth, not slight growth quarter after quarter. Unlike a software company, they can't simply add users without adding incremental costs - they actually have to build cars. Valuing Tesla like you would value Google - who's costs are fixed, or with Apple - who pays FoxConn $20 to build a phone they sell for $1000 - was the mistake.

So, your logic doesn't make any sense - relative to the stock valuation.

Note I am not saying Tesla is or is not a good company. Don't know. Just commenting on the stock - the premise of this thread.

 

[DwightFrye]

It sounds like some of you think Elon or other shareholders made claims regarding projected sales to manipulate the stock price. Do you think they could have gotten away with that ? There are a lot of factors involved in a company's stock valuation, some are from numbers on paper, some are from emotion and some may be from mixing some eye of newt and dried bat wings and gazing into a crystal ball. But the numbers are set by the market and investors, whether institutional or retail and not by claims from the corporations.

The fact remains that even if Tesla has a "dismal year" as of yesterday TSLA was selling at about $164. Ford Motor Co. was about $12 and General Motors was in the mid- $40 range.

So it may have been over valued in 2021. But why isn't it valued somewhere around GM's price today ? And where do you think it will be when Tesla is in fact bringing in revenue from business divisions that have extremely low costs and high markups like google, Microsoft and Apple ?

Well, the same people who set the valuation in 2021 and yesterday will be once again setting that valuation. It's a gamble to own shares in Tesla. You pays your money and you takes your chances. But you can be sure that under conventional methods and analysis, TSLA will probably still be an outlier.

 

[alarmguy]

The fact remains that even if Tesla has a "dismal year" as of yesterday TSLA was selling at about $164. Ford Motor Co. was about $12 and General Motors was in the mid- $40 range.

So it may have been over valued in 2021. But why isn't it valued somewhere around GM's price today ? And where do you think it will be when Tesla is in fact bringing in revenue from business divisions that have extremely low costs and high markups like google, Microsoft and Apple ?

It’s the price earnings ratio that matters not the price of the stock. The price of the stock is in relation to the number of shares out there.
For example, I know you know this, but others may not. Last month Walmart was $180 a share this month it’s $60 a share because they increased the number of shares of stock to bring the price down but the PE remains the same.
The people who had the stock at $180 a share now have three times the amount of shares at $60 a share.
So bringing up the price of a stock means nothing and it’s just an example of why.

You asked, why isn’t it valued the same as General Motors this year?
Well, isn’t it on the way to that valuation?
In 2021 it was almost 100 times earnings. Tesla is selling at 39 times earnings and who is to say in two years it will not be selling at six times earnings like General Motors?

Tesla is a speculative stock, it’s one that computer algorithms use to daytrade and trade by the minute, if not seconds.
There’s many stocks like that on the exchange, and when you have such a high PE ratio it’s the one that every day Joe loses his savings on
It’s no different than bitcoin, just speculative
I remember owning bitcoin at $7500 a coin people thought it was insane at $20,000 a coin now you can trade it up to 60 and $70,000 a coin
It’s all speculation and just like Tesla sold at 100 times earnings two years ago and people lost a fortune next month bitcoin can be selling at $30,000 a coin and people lose a fortune.

Let’s not forget at the time electric vehicles were new to the market and Tesla was the only game in town and everybody including their mothers bought the stock and wanted it in their portfolio as the stock price gets trashed by over 150% less less people are going to wanna own the stock

I’m only replying because you were comparing it to Ford and General Motors. Let’s bring Toyota into that as well.
The industry in general sells at five to 15 times earnings it’s becoming apparent that Tesla is failing to impress shareholders and something has to change for the better and if it doesn’t, the sock will be with the traditional PE ratios
Hope this makes sense. I’m using text to speech in my car while I wait for my wife to get out of the house.!!!

 

[DwightFrye]

Alarmguy I appreciate your analysis and yes it does make sense. But then again, Tesla's stock valuation has never made much sense. It may be on its way down to GM levels. Or by next year it may be back up to close to $300 again. We don't know what is going on behind the scenes, there may be a technological breakthrough right around the corner that is a game changer. The new Model 2 may be on the market sooner than expected. Sure, that's a lot of "what if's"

But you can be sure of one thing. Tesla is not standing still. They are still years ahead of the competition. They have lots of cash. They have the best and brightest engineers. Elon is enough of a megalomaniac that he won't let his company be relegated to just another maker of EV's.

And all the while that the EV division is improving their vehicles, other divisions and racing forward with the FSD project, the rumored Tesla Phone, the Dojo computer, the Powerwall and solar products, adding more chargers to the worldwide network
and other ways to bring huge amounts of revenue to the company.

Currently, Wall Street is unprepared for how to value those types of products as there aren't a lot of historical comparisons.
Whatever the value of TSLA is by 2028 or so will not have that much to do with the P/E ratio of their vehicle sales. Of course it's all just my speculation. We'll see.

 

[alarmguy]

Alarmguy I appreciate your analysis and yes it does make sense. But then again, Tesla's stock valuation has never made much sense. It may be on its way down to GM levels. Or by next year it may be back up to close to $300 again. We don't know what is going on behind the scenes, there may be a technological breakthrough right around the corner that is a game changer. The new Model 2 may be on the market sooner than expected. Sure, that's a lot of "what if's"

But you can be sure of one thing. Tesla is not standing still. They are still years ahead of the competition. They have lots of cash. They have the best and brightest engineers. Elon is enough of a megalomaniac that he won't let his company be relegated to just another maker of EV's.

And all the while that the EV division is improving their vehicles, other divisions and racing forward with the FSD project, the rumored Tesla Phone, the Dojo computer, the Powerwall and solar products, adding more chargers to the worldwide network
and other ways to bring huge amounts of revenue to the company.

Currently, Wall Street is unprepared for how to value those types of products as there aren't a lot of historical comparisons.
Whatever the value of TSLA is by 2028 or so will not have that much to do with the P/E ratio of their vehicle sales. Of course it's all just my speculation. We'll see.

Just so you know, I appreciate respectful conversations and I won’t discount anything that you’re saying.
It’s thought-provoking ideas that help people make decisions.
I do question and wonder if Musk will even be Tesla CEO by 2028 and I wouldn’t even know if that would be a bad thing it all depends on what might bring to the table for the company.

My concern with musk has so many private adventures that I’m not sure what he would hold back from Tesla, versus his own, privately owned satellite, space, robotics such as brain implants and whatever other businesses.

It’s all good and I’ll never discount the future of something as my posts are just related to present. For whatever it’s worth your convictions, maintain an open mind for me regarding this company.

 

[ZeeOSix]

As more and more EV competition hits the market, Tesla loses more and more ground, especially if the competition can provide EVs that people want at a lower cost. Tesla was the early king in the EV market when they were basically the only big game in town, but as time goes on they will at some point just become another EV brand along with many others to compete against. If Tesla can't keep the prices down, they are going to lose some sales as many people these days are looking for value and will ultimately forego a brand to do so. And other things, like dealer network and the ability to work on your own EV without crazy control over the customer will become another factor in people's decision to buy what brand of EV.

 

[camrydriver111]

Tesla too big to fail? That is wildly optimistic. Given Elon's ketamine flooded brain has flip flopped often and shown so much hypocrisy I would not be surprised he would beg for a handout.

In the world of ultra high performance, ultra high stakes CEOs it is not uncommon to take performance enhancing drugs. While athletes need to boost their physical ability, ultra high performance CEOs need to boost their mental abilities as well as their physical abilities to some extent.

Some commonly used substances are TRT, various neutropics, ketamine, stem cell based anti-aging therapies, and various stimulants.

I actually find it reassuring that Elon is taking care of his mind and body to perform at the highest level.

He has to take millions of investor's money and turn it into billions. I cannot imagine how much pressure that is.

Of course he is naturally a genius, but I can see why at his ultra high performance ultra high stakes level he would want to supplement that with some cutting edge pharmacology.

 

[cptbarkey]

In the world of ultra high performance, ultra high stakes CEOs it is not uncommon to take performance enhancing drugs. While athletes need to boost their physical ability, ultra high performance CEOs need to boost their mental abilities as well as their physical abilities to some extent.

Some commonly used substances are TRT, various neutropics, ketamine, stem cell based anti-aging therapies, and various stimulants.

I actually find it reassuring that Elon is taking care of his mind and body to perform at the highest level.

He has to take millions of investor's money and turn it into billions. I cannot imagine how much pressure that is.

Of course he is naturally a genius, but I can see why at his ultra high performance ultra high stakes level he would want to supplement that with some cutting edge pharmacology.

Hogwash.

 

[Vercingetorix]

In the world of ultra high performance, ultra high stakes CEOs it is not uncommon to take performance enhancing drugs. While athletes need to boost their physical ability, ultra high performance CEOs need to boost their mental abilities as well as their physical abilities to some extent.

Some commonly used substances are TRT, various neutropics, ketamine, stem cell based anti-aging therapies, and various stimulants.

I actually find it reassuring that Elon is taking care of his mind and body to perform at the highest level.

He has to take millions of investor's money and turn it into billions. I cannot imagine how much pressure that is.

Of course he is naturally a genius, but I can see why at his ultra high performance ultra high stakes level he would want to supplement that with some cutting edge pharmacology.

Sounds like you have been partaking of the enhancing drugs.

 

[JeffKeryk]

In the world of ultra high performance, ultra high stakes CEOs it is not uncommon to take performance enhancing drugs. While athletes need to boost their physical ability, ultra high performance CEOs need to boost their mental abilities as well as their physical abilities to some extent.

Some commonly used substances are TRT, various neutropics, ketamine, stem cell based anti-aging therapies, and various stimulants.

I actually find it reassuring that Elon is taking care of his mind and body to perform at the highest level.

He has to take millions of investor's money and turn it into billions. I cannot imagine how much pressure that is.

Of course he is naturally a genius, but I can see why at his ultra high performance ultra high stakes level he would want to supplement that with some cutting edge pharmacology.

In Silicon Valley, working for 2 leading Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment companies, doing statistical forecasting for the executive staff, I have had opportunity to work with, or at least meet with, several top CEOs and C-Level in general.

They are, of course, extremely intelligent, educated, focused, driven and more. Egotistical. Elon Musk could certainly be accused of more than that, but he fits the mold.

One thing I noticed, after quite awhile, is these people do not work like this, killing themselves with pressure, decisions and work ethic, but they don't do it for the Atherton homes, jets, wives, or money in general. They do it because that's who they are.

The Executive Board Room is generally a terrifying place. You had better be ready. If you don't know something, admit it, now.
FYI, SEMI is called the most high tech of the high tech, because how do you make a new chip without the machine to make the new chip?
Nanometrics, baby!

 

[camrydriver111]

They totally have a different drive, if the average person became a billionaire or even a multi-millionaire, they would want to retire.

I am not saying every CEO is enhanced, but it is more common then people think. I've seen TRT combined with HGH described as the closest thing to a fountain of youth.

When you have enough resources to have your own personal endocrinologist, a lot of people do take advantage of that.

Obviously the doctors Musk is working with think he can benefit from addition of ketamine to his protocol. He is also micro-dosing, which is very different that using the drug recreationally.