Tesla Stock

[alarmguy]

Once again the "expectations" were unrealistic and were calculated by financial experts who persist upon evaluating TSLA the same way that they would any other automaker. Or tech stock for that matter.

Ok, I can go with that and why the stock should be 25 times earnings taking your word for it. Not the 100 times earnings peak.
Expectations? Led by Tesla's own CEO who has back tracked MULTIPLE times now.
Based on the statement above, you dont want Tesla evaluated on the performance that the company has forecast a long time ago and now that the company is lowering the forecast by leaps and bounds?

This is a pure spec play, no different than bitcoin. In reference to "the experts" you do know, the majority of share holders are not those "experts" institutional investors which only own 41 percent of the stock.
I have no problem with people that want to own Tesla but to make excuses for the stock price to run up is admitting that the price should have never been so high to begin with and I agree with you. It needs to come down, the thing is people lost boatloads of money on it but that goes with the territory of speculative investing. Some of these investment firms just lowered their outlook to 350 a share from 385.

We may have some common ground though. The "experts" wouldnt need to work if they were experts with their own money. I care about people and feel bad that they get caught up in the mass "hysteria" on such a speculative play. Im not talking about in its infancy when you bought. I am talking the last few years.
Yeah, the "experts" most likely swayed a lot of people but you yourself has benefited greatly, or maybe better said, those that bought at the same time and sold in the 350 to $400 range.

 

[UncleDave]

Will be interesting to see if dips below or stays above last years low.

Probabaly smart move to bite the bullet and call out 24 as being slow, that way if it is (which I suspect it wont be great for anyone) then you called it.

If you beat the expectation there is usually reward for that.

 

[JeffKeryk]

TSLA getting hammered; down another 11%. Not for the faint of heart! Otherwise this has been perhaps the single biggest day ever in my portfolio...

 

[alarmguy]

Im wondering if @Passport1 who started this thread still owns the stock. His advisor had him buy the stock at $250+ a share. This isnt meant to be a "dig" on passport. As my post on page one implies, where was his advisor when the stock was in the range of when @DwightFrye purchased it.
I only say it as a dig on advisors. If you need one, best to stick with index funds and use the advisor to help you to properly allocate your money. No right or wrong, just my thoughts and I what do I know, other than my distrust of other people who if so successful needs my money to earn an income.
Im not saying they dont have value but picking individual stocks I think well, history shows the index beats them.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Im wondering if @Passport1 who started this thread still owns the stock. His advisor had him buy the stock at $250+ a share. This isnt meant to be a "dig" on passport. As my post on page one implies, where was his advisor when the stock was in the range of when @DwightFrye purchased it.
I only say it as a dig on advisors. If you need one, best to stick with index funds and use the advisor to help you to properly allocate your money. No right or wrong, just my thoughts and I what do I know, other than my distrust of other people who if so successful needs my money to earn an income.
Im not saying they dont have value but picking individual stocks I think well, history shows the index beats them.

I fired Fidelity for their lousy advice but more for selling me an annuity. Hate them.
And they told me to sell Lam to buy it!

 

[SC Maintenance]

Im all for American (truly)but give me price over all else for one simple reason, every corporation in the USA buys whatever they can from China and Asia to resell to us anyway.

^^^ This.

Where were the trade barriers forcing companies to quit outsourcing all our crap to China? Where were the trade barriers stopping Elon from transferring all his tech to the CCP so he could manufacture cars in China?

They want these trade barriers to be one way diode's for the rich.

 

[demarpaint]

TSLA getting hammered; down another 11%. Not for the faint of heart! Otherwise this has been perhaps the single biggest day ever in my portfolio...

Great day if you're short TSLA or long TSLA puts........

 

[UncleDave]

It "looks" like its not going to go to last years low and is holding onto about a 15% gain YTY.

We'll see if they can repeat the run to 250 this year, going to be hard without the new low end car, but the refreshes seem to be more refined nicer cars.

Always room for disaster or improvement.

 

[demarpaint]

CNBC and a few others are saying EV demand is weakening in the USA. I'm sure that isn't helping TSLA any. Combine that with BYD in China and there's the drop in the stock price.

 

[UncleDave]

CNBC and a few others are saying EV demand is weakening in the USA. I'm sure that isn't helping TSLA any. Combine that with BYD in China and there's the drop in the stock price.

Could be overall, heard that a while now.
I'm pretty sure EV's are and are predicted to be, the fastest growing automotive segment for some time.

Certain manufacturers are struggling mightily with their offerings.
Demand for marginal perfomers marked up 5-10K is probably non existent.

Im amazed Tesla does as well as it does against BYD all their stuff is much cheaper and they have many more segments covered.

 

[JeffKeryk]

This thread is about Tesla stock.
With the drop, Tesla is still more valuable by market cap than the next 6 or 7 car companies combined.
The market holds Tesla to metrics that other car companies can only dream about.
That's the numbers.

Roller coaster? Sure.

 

[demarpaint]

This thread is about Tesla stock.
With the drop, Tesla is still more valuable by market cap than the next 6 or 7 car companies combined.
The market holds Tesla to metrics that other car companies can only dream about.
That's the numbers.

Roller coaster? Sure.

Yes, and money can be made going long or short on stocks. Simply put, with all the news lately, combined with BYD, made it a big winner for those on the short side, either by shorting the stock, or buying puts.

 

[alarmguy]

CNBC and a few others are saying EV demand is weakening in the USA. I'm sure that isn't helping TSLA any. Combine that with BYD in China and there's the drop in the stock price.

I can tell you one thing, there certainly are a lot of EV’s available down here on the Carolina coast and that’s multiple manufacturers
Which pretty much means there is hardly a shortage when there should be one, if this is going to be the next biggest thing

 

[alarmguy]

double post

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yes, and money can be made going long or short on stocks. Simply put, with all the news lately, combined with BYD, made it a big winner for those on the short side, either by shorting the stock, or buying puts.

Sure. I believe TSLA is the #2 shorted stock after Apple. What is the track record for the Tesla short sellers?

 

[demarpaint]

Sure. I believe TSLA is the #2 shorted stock after Apple. What is the track record for the Tesla short sellers?

No clue, TSLA puts spreads have paid off nicely for me, and in all honesty I only worry about me.

 

[alarmguy]

Tesla registrations fall 10% in California, 4th quarter of 2023. First time in years.
I think this is huge for an industry that needs to be growing by leaps and bounds and for a stock with still sky high valuations even though the stock price is already slashed in half.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ns-fall-first-time-since-pandemic-2024-01-30/

 

[Astro14]

Tesla registrations fall 10% in California, 4th quarter of 2023. First time in years.
I think this is huge for an industry that needs to be growing by leaps and bounds and for a stock with still sky high valuations even though the stock price is already slashed in half.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ns-fall-first-time-since-pandemic-2024-01-30/

The article is misleading; the implication is that the number of Teslas on the road dropped by 10%. That didn’t happen. The number of new vehicles registered dropped by 10%. They still sold roughly 48,000 cars this quarter in that state, compared with roughly 53,000 the previous quarter. It’s a slowdown in delivery by about 10%, not a drop in the number of cars.

 

[alarmguy]

The article is misleading; the implication is that the number of Teslas on the road dropped by 10%. That didn’t happen. The number of new vehicles registered dropped by 10%. They still sold roughly 48,000 cars this quarter in that state, compared with roughly 53,000 the previous quarter. It’s a slowdown in delivery by about 10%, not a drop in the number of cars.

I didnt read any different than what is written. Maybe others did? Im being 100% honest and in no way did I read it any other way. Its seems to clear to me, both the headline and first sentence.

"Registrations of Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab vehicles in California dropped 10% in the last quarter of 2023, the first fall in more than three years in the state, which is one of the most important markets for the electric carmaker and considered a national trend setter."

...
"The last time Tesla posted a year-on-year registration fall in California was the third quarter of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. California accounts for about 10% of Tesla's global deliveries."

This clearly and without question shows a significant flatting of the EV market their OR interest is Tesla's.
Since this is a "first" time will tell if its a trend or hic-up but no matter what Tesla is slashing prices, failed to meet Musks forecasts and profit margins in the toilet compared to just two years ago and still happening even with the taxpayers paying people to but their cars.
I mean, some of this stuff is valid concerns.

 

[UncleDave]

There is gigantic difference in what is an isn't a "delivery" between Tesla and the rest of the auto groups.
Tesla delivers to end users - the rest deliver to dealers.

I checked auto trader using a nationwide search a few days ago and there are about 98K new EV's available for sale. It's no surprise the big three are scaling back. 10K were new Hyundai's, there were about 10K used teslas available.

Pretty much all of these new EV's are already obsolete with CCs charge ports, and sitting at dealers that outside of hyundai don't know a thing about them, most still cant service them properly and have few to no parts. I frequent almost all the EV brand forums and they are all struggling with updates, parts and factory training.

These places are used to getting uncontested multi thousand dollar markups.
This will be a blood bath for guys holding this inventory that no one wants, and an opportunity for buyers willing to live with adapters for the new charging standard.

Contrast this with having to wait for a new Highland model 3.

Expect to hear incredibly contrasting stories going forward about this market.