Tesla Stock

[alarmguy]

A temporary blip. We've seen these kinds of fluctuations before. If you are a short term trader your butt probably hurts right now.
For others who are in it for the next 3-4 years, sit tight. You'll do just fine. The other makers will still be playing catch up. Or, will have gone the way of AMC. Lucid for example has only sold around 64% of their 2023 production and isn't making money on them anyway. Rivian is struggling. Ford is floundering with their EV program. GM is in similar straits.

With apologies to Freddie Cannon and song author Chuck Barris, I just sing along when I look at my TSLA holdings spread sheet at the end of each month.

My heart was flyin'
up like a rocket ship
Down like a roller coaster
Back like a loop-the-loop
And around like a merry-go-round

But its never recovered from its last blip in Dec 2021
A Blip is relative to where you bought it. Same goes for BitCoin
People in this forum and the markets were talking up this stock even thirty days ago, even though its still way down from Dec 2021.

Yet in the last 30 days someone who just bought lost 20% of their money that is more than a blip, never mind almost 50% of their money since Nov 2021.
This is a stock for speculation only, the numbers prove it. If you bought at the right time you made a fortune, if you bought at the wrong time, well, the loss so significant its not worth the discussion. Just make sure you can afford to lose your investment with this company. AS many have already.

 

[JeffKeryk]

But its never recovered from its last blip in Dec 2021
A Blip is relative to where you bought it. Same goes for BitCoin
People in this forum and the markets were talking up this stock even thirty days ago, even though its still way down from Dec 2021.
Yet in the last 30 days someone who just bought lost 20% of their money that is more than a blip, never mind almost 50% of their money since Nov 2021.

Picking single points in investments only makes sense for day traders and short term investors, aka high risk investors.
Investing in a volatile stock like TSLA is risky, no doubt. My TSLA investment is still up 70%, even with the recent drop.
Wish I had more. Here's the 5 year chart, which is over 1,000% net gain. Who knew?
Where do you think TSLA will be in 1 year from today? 5 years?

Here's GM, for comparison. Wasn't it at $63 a while back? Where do you expect them to be in the same time frames?

 

[alarmguy]

Picking single points in investments only makes sense for day traders and short term investors, aka high risk investors.
Investing in a volatile stock like TSLA is risky, no doubt. My TSLA investment is still up 70%, even with the recent drop.
Wish I had more. Here's the 5 year chart, which is over 1,000% net gain. Who knew?
Where do you think TSLA will be in 1 year from today? 5 years?

View attachment 184217
Here's GM, for comparison. Wasn't it at $63 a while back? Where do you expect them to be in the same time frames?
View attachment 184221

But looking at trends is significant and you are replying to me but my reply was to someone who said this month was a temporary blip. So I rightfully called into the blip it never recovered from in Dec 2021. I think that is fair game.
Without question, the last three years makes this a day traders stock. Long term it is a train wreck as proven in your chart starting in 2021.
So how many years do you want to go back? You're not five years back, you have been talking up the stock for three years now and it's gone no place but down. If you make that clear to everyone it's a different story.
You can go back the beginning of any company that is successful and post the same stuff but what relevance does that have to do with today or even three years ago?

Tesla down almost 50% which means it has to go up almost 100% from here and that is only today, it will be more next earnings report.
At the same time in that 3 year period, Walmart is up 20%.

Here IS the rub though, YOU yourself pick points in time. You mentioned AT LEAST a dozen or MORE times that Tesla is up 100% from Jan 2023 have you not??
SO you brought picking points in time into the story over and over as well as another.

For an investor Tesla is a short term trade until proven otherwise.
The S&P in the same time frame has lost a couple percent. Tesla 50%
Yet an old proven staple like Walmart is up 20% slow steady growth is for long term.
WMT chart - which would a long term investor have liked to buy in 2022 and hold still today. Tesla or Walmart?

You always have to pick a point in time, just like you do as new investors come into the market with each new day.
The new investor in 2020,2021,2022 is NOT at all happy with Tesla. The traders are thrilled. GM in the last 3 years no better as of today. Again, picking points in time down 50%. I have Dwights post bookmarked to check back at the end of Dec to see who is in better shape. WIth that said, I trade GM its not long term but I know its downside is limited, now selling at 4.5 times earnings and Tesla over 60 times earnings, lets see what happens if the strike ever ends, which I have my doubts at times. Not invested in GM, I have traded it short term. SO let's see where we go from here, will Tesla ever get to is high of over $400 a share or will GM ever get to its high of almost $60 a share. Both dont matter to me, a fan of none but to a long term investor, one might question value.
GM stock price doubled (pre strike) would be selling at 10 times earnings. Tesla current price doubled would be selling at 120 times earrings. Hmmmm... I am not proponent of GM unless compared currently against Tesla. Im not into car stocks as a rule, though Toyota I think has the best act
'

 

[Vercingetorix]

The phrase here is Ad Nauseum.

 

[JeffKeryk]

But looking at trends is significant and you are replying to me but my reply was to someone who said this month was a temporary blip. So I rightfully called into the blip it never recovered from in Dec 2021. I think that is fair game.
Without question, the last three years makes this a day traders stock. Long term it is a train wreck as proven in your chart starting in 2021.
So how many years do you want to go back? You're not five years back, you have been talking up the stock for three years now and it's gone no place but down. If you make that clear to everyone it's a different story.
You can go back the beginning of any company that is successful and post the same stuff but what relevance does that have to do with today or even three years ago?

Tesla down almost 50% which means it has to go up almost 100% from here and that is only today, it will be more next earnings report.
At the same time in that 3 year period, Walmart is up 20%.

Here IS the rub though, YOU yourself pick points in time. You mentioned AT LEAST a dozen or MORE times that Tesla is up 100% from Jan 2023 have you not??
SO you brought picking points in time into the story over and over as well as another.

For an investor Tesla is a short term trade until proven otherwise.
The S&P in the same time frame has lost a couple percent. Tesla 50%
Yet an old proven staple like Walmart is up 20% slow steady growth is for long term.
WMT chart - which would a long term investor have liked to buy in 2022 and hold still today. Tesla or Walmart?
View attachment 184228
You always have to pick a point in time, just like you do as new investors come into the market with each new day.
The new investor in 2020,2021,2022 is NOT at all happy with Tesla. The traders are thrilled. GM in the last 3 years no better as of today. Again, picking points in time down 50%. I have Dwights post bookmarked to check back at the end of Dec to see who is in better shape. WIth that said, I trade GM its not long term but I know its downside is limited, now selling at 4.5 times earnings and Tesla over 60 times earnings, lets see what happens if the strike ever ends, which I have my doubts at times. Not invested in GM, I have traded it short term. SO let's see where we go from here, will Tesla ever get to is high of over $400 a share or will GM ever get to its high of almost $60 a share. Both dont matter to me, a fan of none but to a long term investor, one might question value.
GM stock price doubled (pre strike) would be selling at 10 times earnings. Tesla current price doubled would be selling at 120 times earrings. Hmmmm... I am not proponent of GM unless compared currently against Tesla. Im not into car stocks as a rule, though Toyota I think has the best act
'

The important points in time are purchase and sell points. Dec 2021 is fair game if you bought or sold on that date.
If you sold you probably looked pretty good. If you bought and sold since then, you took it in the shorts. If you bought and held, only time will tell.

 

[alarmguy]

I wasn’t aware that Cathie Woods fund ARK second highest holding is in cryptocurrency company Coinbase.

Here all this time, and some respects, I was liking the performance of Tesla stock to Coinbase, and it turns out how the ARK fund owns almost as much Coinbase as Tesla. Tesla, it’s top holding, Coinbase is its second.
The story says/details they have been selling Tesla and Coinbase is getting closer to the top as they do.
Both of them not doing well, however.

https://stocks.apple.com/Akh4bZKF9TpmY97ppSo-dsQ

 

[alarmguy]

The important points in time are purchase and sell points. Dec 2021 is fair game if you bought or sold on that date.
If you sold you probably looked pretty good. If you bought and sold since then, you took it in the shorts. If you bought and held, only time will tell.

In the investing world it’s always fair game when a new large corporation is significantly below it’s all-time high. That goes for any corporation not just new, but selling at multiple sky high P/Es over the market norms. Some consider it a warning even though the price has come down 50%.
When does it stop going down and when does this justify the PE?

When time is mentioned, everybody has a timeframe and not everybody’s timeframe is the same so what exactly is time?

Another post in here considers time the end of December of this year I have the post book marked and we will check prices then, but not that it matters that’s on that person timeframe each individual has different time frames.
The problem with Tesla is it’s failing to live up to its explosive growth at the high PE of 100 now it’s down into the 60s, so maybe it will eventually start becoming worth something considering as long as growth continues right now they going in reverse with their profits and Elon held a pretty dismal earnings conference.

Risk/reward, everybody has their thing but Tesla is only a golden goose to those who think so it has not proven itself to the marketplace yet.
It’s profits come from China, which are disappearing, and from the US taxpayer per car it needs to prove it could stand on its own 2 feet is my feeling

 

[ME_Andy]

Interesting that they'll have capacity to build 150k electric semis.

 

[alarmguy]

Interesting that they'll have capacity to build 150k electric semis.

Yes, looks like a good one for companies that will pay the price and its a HUGE price to pay but Tesla doesn't have the capability to build ICE semi's like some other companies do and competition will heat up with I think another 7 companies world wide in the planning or more advanced stages.
Right now 6 companies make EV semi's for the USA but the legacies make both EV and ICE. Tesla rules with range as of the time of this story. I suspect will rule for a while keeping in mind these things are literally crawling through production.
I think its cool though just don't know how practical and we won't know for a decade.

Source https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fa...e-trucking-industry-electric-semi-trucks-2023

 

[alarmguy]

It's VERY early in the game and I personally am not at all against battery operated EVs for those that have a purpose for them.
Some may think I am against them but not at all. Im just against what I think (and I could be wrong but I have to say Im pretty right on subject like this many times) as a consumer regarding emotional purchases vs. rational thinking.
I do think EVs have a strong purpose for those that need them and at the same time I do think a significant amount of people buy them on an "idea" that it would be good for them too but they dont think it out and regret buying one.

SO on the idea of Tesla and EV only companies, I do think over the next five or ten if it years we will see a shakeout and that is being generous As we will hit a saturation point with CURRENT Battery type operated EVs. The public will learn the positives and negatives of the technology instead of right now buying them willy nilly on an emotional decision rather than rational decision for their usage.
Even right now, the only reason for profits in the EV industry are taxpayers giving people who buy them money.
Remember the solar industry as well? Well whenever "free" money is given away the public thinks they are getting a break in the price, when its the companies getting those profits and the desire to get efficient is at the bottom of the list in production, sales and installations.
These industries can not survive on their own because they never had too. There is always taxpayers footing the bills and when that happens the desire to get efficient takes a step back OR the product was forced, meaning too expensive for the public.

So that leads me to this surprise this morning. It really just is a first impression as I sip my coffee. YET this was also disclosed in Tesla's 3rd quarter report. Sales of solar systems are in the toilet at a time of year that it is normally robust.
Have we reached the saturation point until a more economical way to generate homeowner energy can be found? The US taxpayer cant bear the costs of these massive expenditures on a hope, dream and agenda.

Could this be already happening with EV vehicles? I find it hard to believe but Tesla's results and legacy makers slowing up the rush to get EVs built at these high costs, so high, the tax credits maybe having less of effect, until 2024 when people will get instant credits.
Todays thoughts after seeing this =
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/sol...aredge-drops-25percent-on-demand-warning.html

Call me crazy but the whole electrification movement to me, seems to rely on perfect economic conditions and massive influx of taxpayers money, without it, these industries can not survive on the scale that they do now.
Well, budgets around the world are going to be tightening, all countries are running on borrowed money, I suspect in time programs will be cut. For the EV market, what government is going to be able to afford the massive cost of replacing the gasoline industry with power plants and grid upgrades when they cant pay their bills today without borrowing massive amounts of money.

 

[demarpaint]

Lets face it, competition, high interest rates, and price cuts hurt. The competition is slim now but it's coming. Maybe that's what Wall Street is thinking at the moment, time will tell. Maybe people realize that going all electric is further away than the EV proponents think, again time will tell. I love the fact that TSLA can be shorted with options, and the risk is known at the time of the trade.

 

[UncleDave]

The solar slowdown was telegraphed further out than a George Foreman punch.

The slowdown in solar is driven by the sea change in the contractual agreements one MUST sign with ones power company as much if not more so than "free money".

Forcing people to add tens of thousands of dollars of storage that the power companies get to basically tap into at will changes the ROI drastically from 4-7 years to 10-20.

In that cali was the bulk of the market when they changed the net metering contracts and rules it was basically the end of the solar boom.

 

[cptbarkey]

Look out below.

“Tesla has had to institute these price cuts only to sell fewer vehicles than analysts earlier expected,” said Ryan Brinkman, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. At this time last year, before the price cuts, Wall Street estimated about two million vehicle deliveries in 2023, he said. That’s dropped to 1.8 million.

Tesla’s “valuation looks increasingly unsustainable,” he said.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-valuation-looks-unsustainable-price-170817361.html

 

[alarmguy]

The solar slowdown was telegraphed further out than a George Foreman punch.

The slowdown in solar is driven by the sea change in the contractual agreements one MUST sign with ones power company as much if not more so than "free money".

Forcing people to add tens of thousands of dollars of storage that the power companies get to basically tap into at will changes the ROI drastically from 4-7 years to 10-20.

In that cali was the bulk of the market when they changed the net metering contracts and rules it was basically the end of the solar boom.

If it was Tesla would be subject to a class action suit. It would have been their responsibility to disclose it. (maybe they did I dont know)

But your reply is only your opinion on the USA of 350 million people. What about the rest of the world? Which the link I provided doesnt even mention Tesla or the USA. I mentioned it because of their results yesterday but this is a global solar slowdown. Not just the USA>
My point is, without taxpayers subsidizing things none of this green called stuff is viable.

Taken from the link I previously posted.
"Solaredge tumbled 30% Friday after it said revenue, gross margins and operating income in the third-quarter would be below what Wall Street was expecting, and added that it estimates “significantly lower” revenue in the fourth-quarter. CEO Zvi Lando cited “substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts” of existing backlogs from the company’s European distributors due to high inventories and slow installation rates."
...

^^^ That is Europe and here in the USA Tesla experienced a marked slowdown in the solar operations, saved by their other storage solutions/

 

[alarmguy]

I went back and did a quick calculation. My Tesla is ~3%. Lilly also 3% so together maybe 6%.

Im trying to remember if you held the Tesla or sold it.

 

[DwightFrye]

I haven't lost one red cent on Tesla even though I have sold about $100k worth in several chunks since 2021. Yes, the value of my shares is way down since its peak but it is still worth about 16X what I paid for it. Gains and losses are only realized at the moment one disposes of their holdings. The rest of the time it's just numbers on paper.

Alarmguy, you consistently overlook TSLA's income from their business groups besides their vehicles and I'm not talking about their income from tax credits. Which have nothing to do with their business practices but are entirely due to the largess of the government as part of their income redistribution in order to buy votes plan.

It doesn't matter what TSLA's price/earnings ratio is and how many ICE vehicles they sell compared to other automakers. I'm pretty confident that Ford and GM's stock price will NEVER catch up to TSLA. Although since TSLA is taking a beating, Toyota at around $175 today isn't that far behind. When the economy recovers which automaker do you think will have the best chance of rapid and substantial percentage gains in their stock value ? TSLA will start to see huge volume and margins from their other products besides the Model 3, Y, Cybertruck and planned Model 2. Other automakers will continue to sell their ICE models and make some sales inroads with their EV's but their EV's will likely be mediocre performers compared to Teslas and will also very likely be barely profitable for a long, long time.

The Wall Street analysts who cling to their old methods of analyzing a company's valuation will continue to be wrong. TSLA is in a category of their own.

 

[alarmguy]

Alarmguy, you consistently overlook TSLA's income from their business groups besides their vehicles and I'm not talking about their income from tax credits. Which have nothing to do with their business practices but are entirely due to the largess of the government as part of their income redistribution in order to buy votes plan.

It doesn't matter what TSLA's price/earnings ratio is and how many ICE vehicles they sell compared to other automakers. I'm pretty confident that Ford and GM's stock price will NEVER catch up to TSLA. ...

Im not understanding.
From an automotive stand point. All GM selling at 4.5 times earnings has to go to 58 Dollars a share for a 100% gain..
Tesla selling at 60 times earnings has to, for the same gain has to go to $420 a share.

Let's not deny their profits in the USA are coming on the back of taxpayers. Take away the rebate and see where it is.

I have Dec 31st bookmarked.

 

[UncleDave]

If it was Tesla would be subject to a class action suit. It would have been their responsibility to disclose it. (maybe they did I dont know)

But your reply is only your opinion on the USA of 350 million people. What about the rest of the world? Which the link I provided doesnt even mention Tesla or the USA. I mentioned it because of their results yesterday but this is a global solar slowdown. Not just the USA>
My point is, without taxpayers subsidizing things none of this green called stuff is viable.

Taken from the link I previously posted.
"Solaredge tumbled 30% Friday after it said revenue, gross margins and operating income in the third-quarter would be below what Wall Street was expecting, and added that it estimates “significantly lower” revenue in the fourth-quarter. CEO Zvi Lando cited “substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts” of existing backlogs from the company’s European distributors due to high inventories and slow installation rates."
...
View attachment 184354

^^^ That is Europe and here in the USA Tesla experienced a marked slowdown in the solar operations, saved by their other storage solutions/

Solar Edge is Israeli, and their biggest sales region is the US, and in the US, California in particular. This isn't my opinion.

They may have blamed Europe for it but their US number tanked and thats their big region.

You've said many time tesla and the EV initiative would stall or fail without the tax credit, yet history showed they grew even without the credit.

No doubt it helps but we disagree on how much.

Solar edges mainstay is inverters - when panels are down inverters are down.
Teslas big earner in solar isnt panels - they stink at that. Its storage.
In that installs now require storage in the largest geo that business is doing ok. All new houses require it.

 

[UncleDave]

Im not understanding.
From an automotive stand point. All GM selling at 4.5 times earnings has to go to 58 Dollars a share for a 100% gain..
Tesla selling at 60 times earnings has to, for the same gain has to go to $420 a share.

Let's not deny their profits in the USA are coming on the back of taxpayers. Take away the rebate and see where it is.

I have Dec 31st bookmarked.

GMs earning to selling hasn't helped the stock.

Why is GM stock at a loss in all timeframes?

6 month , YTD, YTY, 1, 5 , and all time.

Take away the truck tax loophole and they are toast.

 

[wpod]

I could have made 25k on Tesla I pulled the plug early a few years ago walked away with around 12k and haven’t looked back. I bought it at 187 sold when it was in the high 9’s.

Did the same with NVIDIA.