Tesla sales climb but miss expectations

[Vercingetorix]

“The firm produced more cars than were sold, raising fears that demand may be slowing, as rising prices, higher borrowing costs and a major economic slowdown in the key China market discourage buyers.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63319011

 

[JeffKeryk]

Only Tesla results like this could be called a miss...

 

[UncleDave]

Every automaker wishes they could miss like Tesla did.



But at $21.45bn (£19.12bn), it remained more than 50% higher than a year ago.
The company delivered 343,000 cars in the quarter - a record that was up more than 40% from the same period last year.

 

[wpod]

I feel better knowing about Tesla sales.

 

[alarmguy]

I think one has to look at the facts and figures, sometimes one can get too emotionally involved with a company. Not that its a bad thing as long as one is not making excuses for what is happening.
Im reading some of them here.
So lets look at this and I am NOT saying anything negative or positive.
But lets look at the whole picture.

Months ago, if that long, things were great according to Tesla but transportation issues were holding the delivery numbers down.
Yesterday that wasnt an excuse anymore, we have the CEO saying the word "softness" in the market. So what happened?
Months ago we have the CEO saying ""Right now demand is exceeding production to a ridiculous degree," he said"

So yes, this is a miss big time, there has been a shift, we also ignore the words like "competition heating up" overseas. The CEO of Tesla has a cult following that he is cut so much slack in his statements. The institutional investors stay away from him and why so many retail investors percentage wise.

Im not saying good or bad, I do not follow the stock like others because we already know in here how I feel but I do follow the industry and have for decades, other then some options decades back that I did well on, all I ever did was watch because I am not much into retail products.
I know about retail sales and numbers. I always love the media reports sales up 40%. I say big deal, I can sell 10 ice cream pops in 1021 and 15 ice cream pops in 2022 and be up 50%. This goes for any company, not just Tesla. But Tesla sold 15 Ice cream pops and the stock is trashed from just 12 months ago.

Im not saying Tesla will not take over the world, I am also saying its possible Tesla can get crushed or just be one of dozens of other manufacturers in the world competing with each other which everyone knows is my feeling but its good there are people like me because you can buy the stock right now, TODAY at a 35% or more discount then it was just 1 year ago and just look how much sales have gone up since then! Not only that but if it hits it high from last year, you will make 100% on your money!

The good news is, if you have the guts, high risk (which I think it is) but can also be massive reward because of that risk.
Heck, if I didnt feel safe with my current conservitive stocks maybe I would buy some, maybe I will, just not sure if I have the guts to.
Maybe a little bit ... hmmm .. na... maybe ..

Sometimes I think with a new CEO and then Musk left to his creativity the company might be better off.
He is arrogant in many ways. I didnt know, seems like he is preparing the public on another miss by the end of the year.
Let me also add. I am no friend of the media either... everything I typed is just the way it is. Lots of fluffy words come form the CEO and then many people forgive him when proven wrong months later.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/tesla-stock-drops-after-q3-revenue-miss.html

 

[DwightFrye]

Tesla has not only been profitable for more than 2 and a half years but has set new records each quarter.
For Q3 2022, they once again set records in both production and their financials, But the market analysts expected even MORE.
So the stock price is being negatively affected. It's like coming home with a report card that has straight A's and your parents punish you for not getting straight A pluses.

We have to remember that the stock value is based upon actual performance of a company, anticipation of future numbers and emotion. Elon says that Q4 will be EPIC. I have no reason to doubt him. And he hinted at things like a new model that will cost 1/2 as much as a Model 3 or Model Y to manufacture and FSD getting government approval by the end of 2023. TSLA could easily go 6X its current value by 2025. There are a lot of future millionaires being created right now with people buying TSLA at around $205.

Emotion is a strong factor when it comes to money and the stock market. If Q4 turns out as Elon says we should see a very strong recovery in the stock value by about March of next year. Or not. But I'm holding for now.

Elon said that Tesla will be more valuable than Apple and the Saudi Arabian Oil Company investment group combined.That means a market capitalization of around $4.5 trillion. How often has he been totally wrong ?

 

[JeffKeryk]

The roller coaster continues. I'm on it. And I love it. Tesla's GM was 27%; take out Austin and Berlin (high ramping costs) and their GM was over 30%. Show me another auto company even close. No, show me another car company with a profit on their EV BU. There ain't any.

The roller coaster continues...

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I think one has to look at the facts and figures, sometimes one can get too emotionally involved with a company. Not that its a bad thing as long as one is not making excuses for what is happening.
Im reading some of them here.
So lets look at this and I am NOT saying anything negative or positive.
But lets look at the whole picture.

Months ago, if that long, things were great according to Tesla but transportation issues were holding the delivery numbers down.
Yesterday that wasnt an excuse anymore, we have the CEO saying the word "softness" in the market. So what happened?
Months ago we have the CEO saying ""Right now demand is exceeding production to a ridiculous degree," he said"

So yes, this is a miss big time, there has been a shift, we also ignore the words like "competition heating up" overseas. The CEO of Tesla has a cult following that he is cut so much slack in his statements. The institutional investors stay away from him and why so many retail investors percentage wise.

Im not saying good or bad, I do not follow the stock like others because we already know in here how I feel but I do follow the industry and have for decades, other then some options decades back that I did well on, all I ever did was watch because I am not much into retail products.
I know about retail sales and numbers. I always love the media reports sales up 40%. I say big deal, I can sell 10 ice cream pops in 1021 and 15 ice cream pops in 2022 and be up 50%. This goes for any company, not just Tesla. But Tesla sold 15 Ice cream pops and the stock is trashed from just 12 months ago.

Im not saying Tesla will not take over the world, I am also saying its possible Tesla can get crushed or just be one of dozens of other manufacturers in the world competing with each other which everyone knows is my feeling but its good there are people like me because you can buy the stock right now, TODAY at a 35% or more discount then it was just 1 year ago and just look how much sales have gone up since then! Not only that but if it hits it high from last year, you will make 100% on your money!

The good news is, if you have the guts, high risk (which I think it is) but can also be massive reward because of that risk.
Heck, if I didnt feel safe with my current conservitive stocks maybe I would buy some, maybe I will, just not sure if I have the guts to.
Maybe a little bit ... hmmm .. na... maybe ..

Sometimes I think with a new CEO and then Musk left to his creativity the company might be better off.
He is arrogant in many ways. I didnt know, seems like he is preparing the public on another miss by the end of the year.
Let me also add. I am no friend of the media either... everything I typed is just the way it is. Lots of fluffy words come form the CEO and then many people forgive him when proven wrong months later.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/tesla-stock-drops-after-q3-revenue-miss.html

A lot of economists are forecasting a soft recession in Q1 23 so ya gotta condition the masses.

 

[NismoNVT]

The car industry as a whole is poised to have an interesting next a couple of months. The higher the price tag, the higher the impact on the bottom line. This is a miss any which way you want to slice it, even if the next person has a worse Q3.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Tesla has just over half of the US market share for EV’s. The other car makers are now gaining traction. Keep an eye on that percentage. Sure, there are accelerating sales but it might be tough to hang on to over 50%. Today, Tesla’s price earnings ratio is 75. Ford’s is 4.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla has just over half of the US market share for EV’s. The other car makers are now gaining traction. Keep an eye on that percentage. Sure, there are accelerating sales but it might be tough to hang on to over 50%. Today, Tesla’s price earnings ratio is 75. Ford’s is 4.

Which begs the question, what's arong with Ford? Does the market have no confidence?
And what about their margins? One would think, with their storied history, they would know how to make a decent return on operations.
It is believed that Ford is now losing money on every Mach-E they sell. Bloomberg article.

 

[DwightFrye]

While some are predicting that Tesla will lose their market dominance quickly as other automakers enter the market, the cynic in me, as developed during a lifetime of being a motorhead says that other automakers will be selling parts bin kludges of existing models. Maybe dolled up with some body cladding or selling gimmicks like wireless cell phone charging and seats that give you a 12 way massage rather than selling their innovative technology. And that is because they lack the capital and engineering brainpower to really produce and ground up EV.

So those other makers will bite into Tesla's market share. Some will be because of brand loyalty, some will be because people hate Musk. Some will be because consumers who are attracted to bright shiny objects will think the gimmicks are cool and important. But what will happen after a few years when the reputations of those other vehicles are established ? Will they prove to be good vehicles or will their faults rear their ugly heads ?

Tesla has been at least 5 years ahead of the competition for about a decade now. They have so much cash that it is ridiculous while other makers are struggling. Will other makers who are selling EV's be able to really take a bite out of the market and hold onto it, or will they gag and barf after a couple of years and never make meaningful inroads ?

 

[alarmguy]

While some are predicting that Tesla will lose their market dominance quickly as other automakers enter the market, the cynic in me, as developed during a lifetime of being a motorhead says that other automakers will be selling parts bin kludges of existing models. Maybe dolled up with some body cladding or selling gimmicks like wireless cell phone charging and seats that give you a 12 way massage rather than selling their innovative technology. And that is because they lack the capital and engineering brainpower to really produce and ground up EV.

So those other makers will bite into Tesla's market share. Some will be because of brand loyalty, some will be because people hate Musk. Some will be because consumers who are attracted to bright shiny objects will think the gimmicks are cool and important. But what will happen after a few years when the reputations of those other vehicles are established ? Will they prove to be good vehicles or will their faults rear their ugly heads ?

Tesla has been at least 5 years ahead of the competition for about a decade now. They have so much cash that it is ridiculous while other makers are struggling. Will other makers who are selling EV's be able to really take a bite out of the market and hold onto it, or will they gag and barf after a couple of years and never make meaningful inroads ?

I think you need to look at cost.
I agree mainstream automakers will be selling what sells, family size SUV type vehicles refine on an EV platform at much better cost than Tesla’s compact cars which start around $60,000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around comments that do not take purchase price and vehicle size into account.
Faults? Ugly heads? That is only an individuals own bias.
It’s clear you think a lot of Tesla but is this preventing you from thinking objectively?

There is no doubt in my mind that legacy auto makers such as GM will be turning out EVs with a better fit, finish and materials in a larger SUV type car at a 20 to 20% discount to Tesla.
Don’t discount competition from what we are seeing from GM, products about to hit the assembly line are very attractive to the USA consumer.
BTW - it’s not just GM it’s all legacy car makers coming to market. The market will be flooded with them and I think to many a certain sense of security knowing the dealership of the car they are buying is right nearby.
Time will tell

 

[JeffKeryk]

I think you need to look at cost.
I agree mainstream automakers will be selling what sells, family size SUV type vehicles refine on an EV platform at much better cost than Tesla’s compact cars which start around $60,000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around comments that do not take purchase price and vehicle size into account.
Faults? Ugly heads? That is only an individuals own bias.
It’s clear you think a lot of Tesla but is this preventing you from thinking objectively?

There is no doubt in my mind that legacy auto makers such as GM will be turning out EVs with a better fit, finish and materials in a larger SUV type car at a 20 to 20% discount to Tesla.
Don’t discount competition from what we are seeing from GM, products about to hit the assembly line are very attractive to the USA consumer.
BTW - it’s not just GM it’s all legacy car makers coming to market. The market will be flooded with them and I think to many a certain sense of security knowing the dealership of the car they are buying is right nearby.
Time will tell

Agreed; cost is critical. Let's look at cost.
Legacy car companies lose money on EV sales. Tesla's margins were 27% last quarter; they would have been higher if you discount the Austin and Berlin ramp expenditures.

Even if (and when) GM, Ford, VW and others learn how to become more profitable in the EV space, Tesla margins offer huge leverage. They could cut prices to choke out competition and still remain profitable. Heck, look at the problems the mighty Porsche-Audi is having with their EV business unit.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Jeff, I realize you are a supporter of Tesla and Elon. With that understood, what stock price would you consider to be a good entry point? I have decent reflexes and don't mind trying to catch a falling knife.

 

[2strokeNorthstar]

A lot of economists are forecasting a soft recession in Q1 23 so ya gotta condition the masses.

Soft? I see a lot more serious predictions

 

[JeffKeryk]

Jeff, I realize you are a supporter of Tesla and Elon. With that understood, what stock price would you consider to be a good entry point? I have decent reflexes and don't mind trying to catch a falling knife.

I only think long term. TSLA was up 3.45% today but is down 50% YTD. I hate to give my advice, because my crystal ball is pretty cloudy...
My portfolio has a stable component and a higher risk component. TSLA is the latter; if I lose all my high risk stuff I will still be OK.
Tesla will likely do a stock buyback at these prices, which shows confidence.
Overtime, the naysayers have been slaughtered. Let's just say I am holding what I have, even though I could sell for well over 100% profit.
If you have some cash you are willing to risk, perhaps consider buying a few shares. Your call...

If you look at my portfolio YTD, it looks pretty bad. But if you look over 10, 20, or further, it's a different story.

 

[GON]

I think you need to look at cost.
I agree mainstream automakers will be selling what sells, family size SUV type vehicles refine on an EV platform at much better cost than Tesla’s compact cars which start around $60,000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around comments that do not take purchase price and vehicle size into account.
Faults? Ugly heads? That is only an individuals own bias.
It’s clear you think a lot of Tesla but is this preventing you from thinking objectively?

There is no doubt in my mind that legacy auto makers such as GM will be turning out EVs with a better fit, finish and materials in a larger SUV type car at a 20 to 20% discount to Tesla.
Don’t discount competition from what we are seeing from GM, products about to hit the assembly line are very attractive to the USA consumer.
BTW - it’s not just GM it’s all legacy car makers coming to market. The market will be flooded with them and I think to many a certain sense of security knowing the dealership of the car they are buying is right nearby.
Time will tell

AG,

I have no desire to buy a Tesla. I have never road in a Tesla, but they look minimalist and uninviting in the inside of their cabins. Yet every Tesla owner loves their vehicle.

I speculate very few GM owners of an EV (Escalade, Hummer, Celestic) will have a good experience over the long haul. GM hasn't been able to make a small passenger car that was quality or desirable in many years. If GM can't make a basic small car or quality- how can it make an EV of quality.

An older buddy of mine retired as an iron worker. He sold his GM full size pickup that he drove to work in for a brand-new Cadillac CTX as his retirement gift to himself. He traded in the CTX for Hyundai after 18 months. He discovered nobody at his Cadillac dealership could competently repair his CTX. He tried a few other Cadillac dealerships- same issue of nobody was competent to service his CTX.

My guess is GM will not be able to handle/perform the service on EV SUVs that buyers with deep pockets demand. And the word will spread quickly.

 

[alarmguy]

AG,

I have no desire to buy a Tesla. I have never road in a Tesla, but they look minimalist and uninviting in the inside of their cabins. Yet every Tesla owner loves their vehicle.

I speculate very few GM owners of an EV (Escalade, Hummer, Celestic) will have a good experience over the long haul. GM hasn't been able to make a small passenger car that was quality or desirable in many years. If GM can't make a basic small car or quality- how can it make an EV of quality.

An older buddy of mine retired as an iron worker. He sold his GM full size pickup that he drove to work in for a brand-new Cadillac CTX as his retirement gift to himself. He traded in the CTX for Hyundai after 18 months. He discovered nobody at his Cadillac dealership could competently repair his CTX. He tried a few other Cadillac dealerships- same issue of nobody was competent to service his CTX.

My guess is GM will not be able to handle/perform the service on EV SUVs that buyers with deep pockets demand. And the word will spread quickly.

Im having the opposite experience with my Traverse. Our first GM car in about 15 years.
Then again, a CTX is not the market I am talking about nor is the Escalade, Hummer ect. But even with that ummm... who else is production EVs in that class? No one so yeah, they have a market too. Speculation I think can only be, if its not the Hummer or Escalade then what else is in that class? Nothing at the present time. But forget that

Im talking the vast majority of American homes in the median income range, the ones who drive Mid to low priced Kia's, Hyundai, and of course, GM Equinox, Blazers, Trailblazers ect. This is to me where the gravy is but what do I know> ? Someone recently posted photos what appeals to me and I am sure GM did their research of the (forgot if its the blazer maybe) I can imagine the looks of that car as being very desirable, many other in here thought so too.

I guess we will know in 5 to 8 years.

 

[DwightFrye]

Tesla is keenly aware that they need to have a moderately priced EV on the market, and soon. Moderately priced like around $30k. So far, Elon has been kind of tight lipped about having a car like that in their lineup, citing that the profit margin wouldn't be big enough.

However, a couple of days ago he announced that they will be introducing a new model that has about half of the manufacturing cost of a Model 3 or Model Y and will be extremely efficient to produce with regards to how much factory space and labor along with some commonality of major components. So you know he has been working on a solution for a long time and is getting ready to spring and once again, stun the market. Although I hope it is more tangible than the long delayed Cybertruck.

So for example if this new model is available as of January of 2024 as are EV's from Toyota, Ford, GM, Nissan, Honda, Hyundai and Kia, all selling for about $30k we'll have to see which ones are the top sellers, are the best performers and the most reliable. But smart money says the best vehicle is going to come from the manufacturer who has more than 10 years experience making EV's, has almost unlimited capital and the best engineering staff. I guess we'll find out soon enough.