Tesla Q2 Deliveries crushes estimates

I have touched in this before. Tesla reports vehicles manufactured and deliveries. Remember, Tesla is in rapid growth mode both at existing factories and building new factories. As production grows, there is a natural tendency for the gap to increase; all the numbers grow. Additionally, the Model 3 is only made in Fremont for the US market. Tesla builds in batches for regional delivery. How long does it take to deliver truckloads of cars from Northern CA to the Mid West and further East? Basically all over America. The term inventory is misleading; in business the term is Days of Sales Outstanding. DSO is an important component of cash flow because Tesla does not get paid until actual customer delivery.

In manufacturing, in general the only time production = sales or production < sales is during a slowdown or factory production issues.
Your "5 straight quarters" is a perfect example of a company in rapid growth mode. All numbers grow, for numerous reasons.

This is all from my career in statistical forecasting. You report actuals for closed fiscal periods and forecast for future periods. Again, DSO is a factor in cash flow analysis. Companies obviously work to minimize this number.
But doesn't Tesla have financial advisors, engineers that calculate this kind of thing? Sure they're in growth mode but to repeatedly manufacture large quantities of a product more than what's being asked for especially only when payment is at the sale seems like it should raise some eyebrows in the finace department. Lamborghini has already sold out of 2023 and 2024 Hurrican allotments. Many were pre-paid in full or a significant chunk of the price was deposited. Example The Gallardo was the best selling Lamborghini of all time 15,000 plus units sold. Lamborghini is in growth mode but has no new vehicles sitting on the lot. A few months ago I wandered around Lamborghini of Scottsdale. Every single new Hurrican had "Sold" on the window none were awaiting a buyer.
 
But doesn't Tesla have financial advisors, engineers that calculate this kind of thing? Sure they're in growth mode but to repeatedly manufacture large quantities of a product more than what's being asked for especially only when payment is at the sale seems like it should raise some eyebrows in the finace department. Lamborghini has already sold out of 2023 and 2024 Hurrican allotments. Many were pre-paid in full or a significant chunk of the price was deposited. Example The Gallardo was the best selling Lamborghini of all time 15,000 plus units sold. Lamborghini is in growth mode but has no new vehicles sitting on the lot. A few months ago I wandered around Lamborghini of Scottsdale. Every single new Hurrican had "Sold" on the window none were awaiting a buyer.
Absolutely Tesla has a team of advisors for everything. Forecasting is huge; the company who more accurately forecasts will win because they can minimize costs and manage business cycles. This is also where high margin products shine; if desired, sales price can be manipulated to smooth production vs delivery fluctuations. The market will reward companies that better manage the ups and downs.

I think you may be putting too much emphasis on the production vs delivery numbers. This really is a natural occurance in the buisness lifecycle.

Lambo and Tesla serve completely different markets. Lambos are build to order, not build to plan. You probably know they are going to electric now, both hybrid and full EV.
 
Last edited:
Tesla has a history of struggling to pay, or not paying suppliers the past 6 years, and it sounds like that trend isn't over yet.
People are going to get tired of being asked to cut more off the price of the parts they supply, or not being paid, and tell tesal to shove it, and sue them.
The writing is on the wall already.
Tesla struggled in good times, and as anyone who isn't living under a rock already knows, the good times are ending, and a depression is coming.
Any company who has been struggling the past 6 years, with good times, probably won't survive the next 5 years.

And again I will remind people that seem to quickly forget.
Musk boy sold a bunch of his tesla stock because he needed cash himself. So he went from only owning a small amount of tesla stock, to even less tesla stock.
Some think that he controls tesla and has a majority amount of shares. No he doesn't own 51% or more, he has just a measly 12%.
Wow, sounds like Tesla is in big trouble, based on your assumptions and forecast.
Funny, the stock market, the group that deals with the future, seems to think otherwise.
Who knows who is correct?
 
8 more days for Tesla earnings.

I think Facebook is on the right track now that Meta seems to have cut back this virtual reality expenses. Facebook groups for all things in hobbies ect seem to be exploding along with advertising. Jsut another fish that got away when I looked at it last fall but I still think it has the capability for the stock to go crazy high... I might be a buyer if I can find the guts to take some profit from my holdings to buy it as I am fully invested or maybe put some more money into the account. I just got this feeling that maybe META is on the right track now as well as the door opened by Twitter and all the groups that are creating FB groups from all walks of life.
 
Prior to retiring I was a Senior Buyer with Tesla. Writing purchase orders for hundreds of thousands of dollars to many millions of dollars for production equipment was a common task. I worked very closely with the Finance department as PO's worth millions of dollars typically had staged payment requirements tied to the progress of the manufacturing of the equipment with regards to the delivery date. I never had a supplier tell me that our credit was no good or ask me for non typical upfront payments. In fact just the fact that we were Tesla had considerable leverage when it came to negotiations. I never had much fear of the company's inability to meet their financial obligations. There was definitely a tightening of credit terms after the crash of 2008 where a lot of suppliers got burned but it wasn't much of an impediment to what I needed to accomplish day to day.

As far was Tesla having unsold vehicles at the end of each quarter ? It's 4-5 days worth and more of a method of accounting than anything else as Mr. Keryk has pointed out. Not a big deal for Tesla. More of a big deal for the Tesla and Elon haters.

Tesla is still anywhere from 3 to 5 years ahead of all other EV makers depending upon which analyst you read. They aren't standing still. The best and brightest engineers all want to work for wacky Elon. Not GM, Ford or Toyota. I wouldn't be too concerned about Tesla being out of business in the next decade.
 
I think Facebook is on the right track now that Meta seems to have cut back this virtual reality expenses. Facebook groups for all things in hobbies ect seem to be exploding along with advertising. Jsut another fish that got away when I looked at it last fall but I still think it has the capability for the stock to go crazy high... I might be a buyer if I can find the guts to take some profit from my holdings to buy it as I am fully invested or maybe put some more money into the account. I just got this feeling that maybe META is on the right track now as well as the door opened by Twitter and all the groups that are creating FB groups from all walks of life.
Alternately, lawsuits and fines from election interference Zuck admitted to on Rogan's podcast, and all the other evidence, could put Meta out of business and Zuck in prison. These are unlikely outcomes but what they did was illegal bigly.
 
8 more days for Tesla earnings.

I think Facebook is on the right track now that Meta seems to have cut back this virtual reality expenses. Facebook groups for all things in hobbies ect seem to be exploding along with advertising. Jsut another fish that got away when I looked at it last fall but I still think it has the capability for the stock to go crazy high... I might be a buyer if I can find the guts to take some profit from my holdings to buy it as I am fully invested or maybe put some more money into the account. I just got this feeling that maybe META is on the right track now as well as the door opened by Twitter and all the groups that are creating FB groups from all walks of life.

I don't know what meta is, nor ever had a facebook account or stock.
 
Prior to retiring I was a Senior Buyer with Tesla. Writing purchase orders for hundreds of thousands of dollars to many millions of dollars for production equipment was a common task. I worked very closely with the Finance department as PO's worth millions of dollars typically had staged payment requirements tied to the progress of the manufacturing of the equipment with regards to the delivery date. I never had a supplier tell me that our credit was no good or ask me for non typical upfront payments. In fact just the fact that we were Tesla had considerable leverage when it came to negotiations. I never had much fear of the company's inability to meet their financial obligations. There was definitely a tightening of credit terms after the crash of 2008 where a lot of suppliers got burned but it wasn't much of an impediment to what I needed to accomplish day to day.

As far was Tesla having unsold vehicles at the end of each quarter ? It's 4-5 days worth and more of a method of accounting than anything else as Mr. Keryk has pointed out. Not a big deal for Tesla. More of a big deal for the Tesla and Elon haters.

Tesla is still anywhere from 3 to 5 years ahead of all other EV makers depending upon which analyst you read. They aren't standing still. The best and brightest engineers all want to work for wacky Elon. Not GM, Ford or Toyota. I wouldn't be too concerned about Tesla being out of business in the next decade.

9k=(189).webp
 
Alternately, lawsuits and fines from election interference Zuck admitted to on Rogan's podcast, and all the other evidence, could put Meta out of business and Zuck in prison. These are unlikely outcomes but what they did was illegal bigly.
Nothing will happen, would, could, should also applies to the people we elect but nothing will happen and includes one of the most powerful media companies the world has ever seen
 
Overcapacity in the auto industry is nothing new and remains a significant challenge industry wide.
One man's excess capacity is another man's opportunity to buy at a bargain.
This will return as supply chains recover fully enough that low margin business from automakers makes more sense to suppliers.
It should also be remembered that industry-wide overcapacity does not equal overcapacity for any given maker.
Some sources report excess inventory of brand new EVs and if this is true then we should see significant discounting on these cars.
The market doesn't lie and dealers and manufacturers have no interest in financing unsold inventory indefinitely and there is obviously a market clearing price for these unsold units.
One indication of overcapacity might be Tesla's rental car deliveries. OTOH, this could just be a way for Tesla to allow people to try its cars and thereby find more buyers in the retail market.
 
But, consider this. That EV tech is easy to replicate and improve upon.

yeah....no.

If it so were so easy why did Audi just go to Xpeng in China for their software ?

Why is GM so late to market with a battery thats already behind the curve tech wise?

Why did Honda pair with GM instead of doing it on their own?

Why is VW cutting back ID lines globally and are there thousands of new unsold units on lots while other manufacturers products have a wait time?



No, Its just not easy to replicate or improve on. This is myth perpetuated by those behind the curve.
 
Last edited:
yeah....no.

If so were so easy why did Audi just go to Xpeng in China for their software ?

Why is GM so late to market with a battery thats already behind the curve tech wise?

Why is VW cutting back ID lines globally and are there thousands of them on lots while other manufacturers products have a wait time?

No, Its just not easy to replicate or improve on. This is myth perpetuated by those behind the curve.
It seems many wanna trivalize Tesla's technology; primarily non-owners. The data shows them to be mistaken. In fact, the tech gap bwtween Tesla and other makers appears to be widening. As you point out, VW punted and went to China for help.

The "it's easy" opinion is short sighted at best. It is not; tech is hard and getting more so. We need more programmers or we need China.

Tech is now and is the future. Its level of importance in our lives is only accelerating. Minimalize tech and you will be lost to history.
 
Back
Top Bottom