Reading this thread is like watching the news. Polarized opinions with no middle ground.
Scott
Scott
Tesla Q1 sales flatlining, as I have predicted
- Thread starter leadcounsel
- Start date
Its amazing how Tesla is a complete failure in everything they ever did, do now, or will do, while simultaeously becoming the most valuable car company in the world.
Have mercy...
4WD
$50 site donor 2025
So 1 in every 20 sold is an EV. I doubt those huge vehicle and solar panel incentives have any correlation.
But, heck stop the production of ICE immediately! EV is taking over the world.
1 in 20 is one way to look at it.
Solar - mmm some, you'd have to net export 80+ KWH a week to get 1 "tank". Not many can do that.
Stop ice? Not my vote.
SammyChevelleTypeS3
$50 site donor 2023
And to put a choke hold on the competition that already loses billions in their EV BU in many cases.
Tesla's margins offer them incredible leverage.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
TS
I think we might be missing the future when we think TSLA is an industrial manufacturer. TSLA is more likely than not a technology firm, and will lead the effort of all vehicle manufacturers to charge vehicle owners monthly subscription fees. Can't help but ask myself if that is the real reason California is working to outlaw ICEs- California can generate a lot of reoccurring revenues taxing monthly subscription fees.
TSLA value is in its future Intellectual Property (IP) royalties and licensing fees. TSLA is to EV like google is to cell phones. Google makes reoccurring revenue on all Android phones regardless of who manufactures the phone. I suspect google also makes indirect revenues from iPhones.
I think we might be missing the future when we think TSLA is an industrial manufacturer. TSLA is more likely than not a technology firm, and will lead the effort of all vehicle manufacturers to charge vehicle owners monthly subscription fees. Can't help but ask myself if that is the real reason California is working to outlaw ICEs- California can generate a lot of reoccurring revenues taxing monthly subscription fees.
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SammyChevelleTypeS3
$50 site donor 2023
I see. It does appears that there are so many angles and "future profit" sides to work out similar to all the support businesses that came on line and made lots of good money for years attatched to the ICE industry + fuel for ICE that may yet spring up to support the future EV industry that is coming sooner or later.
Yup, just like a lot of other subscription services made easier with streaming technology. Kill the Blockbuster rentals, then make streaming, then lock in high monthly fees.
Some auto makers are already making or planning to make certain features (I think it's heated seats, but that misses the point), on a fee basis. Want to use the radio, that's $1 per day please. Want to use the heater, please pay $5. Etc.
Need an update. $50 please.
As promised and predicted- Elon wanted to bring them down earlier.
Ice/ big boy model "touches" customer at purchase and during service. Ongoing energy is provided by others.
Tesla model touches client at purchase, service, and almost every road trip.
Tesla adds high margin profit touches throughout customer lifetime by selling energy.
JHZR2
Staff member
I don’t think that’s a good model for cars. Microsoft makes money because of enterprise accounts. Many individuals went to Google doc type software rather than paying recurring fees.
Cars are a depreciating asset. A rapidly depreciating one. Look how many junk cars and cars with broken functions are on the road. How many third cars are in peoples’ driveways. You really think folks want to have more recurring fees to keep and operate those cars? Dubious.
As the romance declines, the payouts will decline too. If the cars become less useful, they will be less valuable too. IMO the subscription model will work for people with more dollars than sense, and will come back to bite the values of those vehicles long term. Most are still in the honeymoon phase with Tesla, and many are used to not being long timers with any car they’ve owned (leasing, etc).
JHZR2
Staff member
And that’s why Tesla can drop prices. And as they do, their earnings and everything else will come much more in line with the rest of the industry.
For a commodity item like a vehicle you can’t wear massive margins on your sleeve forever and not expect folks to want a better deal. They’re getting closer for me. It’s been a value proposition - as I consumer I want the best product at the lowest cost and minimum profit to the seller besides what let’s them create the next differentiated best product, and pay their non-c suite employees the best they can.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
I wish and hope you are right. My gut tells me market consolidation will continue, and all remaining manufatures will follow the same business model.
One only need look at video chip maker navidia. They make a royalty on the sale of video games that use their chipset.
MSFT has gotten both my wife and me. Although I have MSFT office on my work computer, I needed office on my personal laptop. Almost no simple option but to subscribe for something I have for free. Wife, who uses word maybe three times a year, also has a MSFT office subscription. Yet we both have bought office licenses for personal use in the past.
And the key to the above paragraph is we bought a license to use office, we never ever bought the software.
I suspect TSLA will be getting royalties from ford vehicles owners, Mercedes vehicle owners, etc. We might own the unibody and the glass, but the technology in the vehicle we likely won't own, we will have a license to use.
One only need look at green john Deere to see how software license prevents John Deere owners from maintaining the equipment they purchased.
I don't see a significant change in how this future looks. Way to much lobbiest monies being distributed to prevent free markets.
JHZR2
Staff member
If the latest base Tesla model 3 is around $41k, I’m not seeing how that’s far off from a Camry/accord/etc.
Plenty of “average” Americans are driving guzzling, inefficient vehicles that they seem to afford. Plenty more are buying overpriced vehicles on credit in an overheated market and somehow getting by. So while I appreciate the outlook on elites and fancy folks buying fancy cars, I’m not necessarily aligning to the fact that all the models are that.
And you do get a bit more tech and interesting bits even in the cheap low level rental fleet Tesla model 3, than you do in competing sedans. And any Joe consumer could go get the other sedan if they liked.
The subsidies do rub me the wrong way, especially since they are fueled by national debt (I.e. we can’t afford them in reality), and, sellers like Tesla use them to misrepresent their selling prices.
Beyond that, if someone thinks they’re status and/or virtue signaling with their Tesla, ok. Good for them. I hate that kind of stuff. But range aside, you do still get some decent value from these cars as their prices ratchet down and more inline with other more standard models of vehicles. It was always a to make claims that the model 3 competed with bmw 5 series and whatnot. When they’re priced like a Camry or accord and provide value commensurate with their pricing, then they’re a winner. As long as they’re still made domestically.
There is a global move to subscription which has been underway quite some time in nearly every sector. BMW tried it with heated seats and rightfully faced a revolt.
I doubt you'll see a royalty to Tesla from Ford or others - but all other brands EV drivers will be paying tesla for energy at supercharger stations and be happy about it because they actually operate.
Tesla has no deal with apple and doesn't even use CarPlay.
