Tesla Q1 sales flatlining, as I have predicted

With the onset of a recession my guess is you will see all car sales flattening! But getting a New Mazda last year I'd say I'm set for 16 years or so unless someone totals it!
Agreed. I'll be the first to say that ALL the auto makers have been suffering relatively bad sales and I said on page 1 that Tesla has the "best" sales of the auto makers. I think I have been very pragmatic, realistic, and fair regarding Tesla.

I actually like some things about Musk, and I hope the company succeeds as a great American success story employing Americans. But as I have said, not at the cost of ICE, nor the constant EV and virtue signaling or "climate change" propaganda we suffer.
 
Q1 to Q1 has fallen? Please. If you sell 1 unit and then sell 2 you are up 100% but you are only selling 2 cars.
Tesla dominates the EV market and is eating into the total market. Heck, when YOY growth is less than 50% analysts call it a miss.
You continue to grossly misrepresent my position. I have expressly stated they sold the most cars in Q1, a record number. But the % growth has declined. Greater sales, absolutely. But at a radically slower rate IN SPITE OF THE PRICE CUT 1-TRICK PONY AND THE SOON EXPIRING TAX REBATES.

Stop misrepresenting my position.

Further, the EV market "domination" is very small. Like 1 in 20 or something. Toyota alone has around 10 models, 6 of which in the top 12 vehicles sold. Toyota sells something like 6x as many vehicles as Tesla. And Toyota is just 1 auto maker. Further still, there's a finite number of EVs Tesla can sell, and within probably 3-5 years that 5-10% that Tesla dominates, is going to be shared between Toyota, Ford, GM, Stallanis, and maybe others. China will probably also just steal all the tech and there goes the Asian market.

It's a tech/auto company. I'm confident the other companies can, in the near term, do it as well or better.

Tesla should enjoy it at the top b/c it's going to be a short ride.
 
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Can you back this up? I looked yesterday and a basic model Y is $54k. When you add taxes, you're into it for around $60 for a base model Y. Add the charging unit installed, you're probably into it for around $65k.

Relatively speaking, not many people can just write a check for $65k without some pain. Lots of people do have that liquidity but are saving it for a new roof, or kids college funds, or emergency expenditures, etc. Not bragging rights and virtue signaling on a Tesla. I think the number of people that wealthy is relatively small and concentrated as the facts show, in a handful of metro areas. Also, one needs ideal weather. This is why we see the greatest adoption in California, followed by Florida and Arizona and Texas. Wealthy metro areas with a lot of warm sunny weather (coupled with solar panels it's a viable economic model for the elites).

Screenshot-2023-04-08-at-1-07-51-PM.png


This is what I see when I look. You can't really add in the tax unless you're going to add that in for every car your compare it to. You have to pay tax for any car. We also need to stop this talk of virtue signaling. It's pointless and it's just one of those catch phrases to say "You're putting up an image I disagree with and I know this is your intention". Come on, seriously. Every time we get into one of these conversations you have to throw something stupid like this in just to have your "gotcha". You're obviously capable of having an adult conversation because it's happened before, but eventually it devolves into us having some of our posts deleted. Back on topic.

Before we decided to go with an electric car which was going to be a VW, we were looking at cars in the $38k-$48k range. I definitely wouldn't have upped my budget $20k to get into a car, that would have just negated my down payment. I likely wouldn't have been looking in this range if it had not been for the car market. We sold our Ford Edge at a time just before the value dropped on them and got the car about 3 months later, pocketing what would have been a car payment at the time. We put $10k down by doing this for full honesty. Again, you don't need the charging unit beyond 120v unless you're driving 100+ miles a day consistently. That's personal preference though and I find it to be a waste of money when a 220V 30amp capable plug will fully charge the car overnight from dead, which I plan to have done soon and doesn't require an additional charger install. On $47k the taxes was $2,500 for me in the state of Wisconsin. Obviously this last part will rest heavily on where you're buying.
 
Can you back this up? I looked yesterday and a basic model Y is $54k. When you add taxes, you're into it for around $60 for a base model Y. Add the charging unit installed, you're probably into it for around $65k.

Relatively speaking, not many people can just write a check for $65k without some pain. Lots of people do have that liquidity but are saving it for a new roof, or kids college funds, or emergency expenditures, etc. Not bragging rights and virtue signaling on a Tesla. I think the number of people that wealthy is relatively small and concentrated as the facts show, in a handful of metro areas. Also, one needs ideal weather. This is why we see the greatest adoption in California, followed by Florida and Arizona and Texas. Wealthy metro areas with a lot of warm sunny weather (coupled with solar panels it's a viable economic model for the elites).

And for the record as I've said many times, I think all auto makers and tech companies are in for a world of hurt. Layoffs occurring in these industries. Auto makers selling high priced cars are going to suffer, as few people can afford the cash and the loans are a back breaker right now for the foreseeable future.

Nope.

MSRP of base model is 49990 mobil charger is 230.

Every car pays taxes, doc and destination fees.

This is basically spot on with what KBB says the average new car cost today.


You're a looooong way off from the 85K number you tried to sell everyone yesterday
 
You continue to grossly misrepresent my position. I have expressly stated they sold the most cars in Q1, a record number. But the % growth has declined. Greater sales, absolutely. But at a radically slower rate IN SPITE OF THE PRICE CUT 1-TRICK PONY AND THE SOON EXPIRING TAX REBATES.

Stop misrepresenting my position.

Further, the EV market "domination" is very small. Further still, there's a finite number of EVs Tesla can sell, and within probably 3-5 years that 5-10% that Tesla dominates, is going to be shared between Toyota, Ford, GM, Stallanis, and maybe others. China will probably also just steal all the tech and there goes the Asian market.

Tesla should enjoy it at the top b/c it's going to be a short ride.
Say things that make sense and that would be a good start. 😉
 
Nope.

MSRP of base model is 49990 mobil charger is 230.

Every car pays taxes, doc and destination fees.

This is basically spot on with what KBB says the average new car cost today.


You're a looooong way off from the 85K number you tried to sell everyone yesterday
I feel like that's why they finally put the LPH battery in the Model Y, it's cost to manufacture is lower and has a bit less capacity and made it possible to hit that number. That's why I also screen shot the website and added it above for his benefit.
 
Say things that make sense and that would be a good start. 😉
I have to work with the sensibilities of people who are obcessed with EVs, so it's not an easy task. Speaking of making sense... Folks who live in Wisconsin, and see 4 EVs and think they're taking over the nation, for instance. wink back at ya.

~6 months ago, Wisconsin registered a whopping 10,000 EVs representing a colossally enormous huge gigantic 0.62% of all vehicles registered, for instance. Even if we allow for a tripling of that number in just the last 6 months, less than 2 out of 100 drivers in Wisconsin pick an EV.

https://electrek.co/2022/08/24/current-ev-registrations-in-the-us-how-does-your-state-stack-up/
 
I feel like that's why they finally put the LPH battery in the Model Y, it's cost to manufacture is lower and has a bit less capacity and made it possible to hit that number. That's why I also screen shot the website and added it above for his benefit.
It's a twofer - he hit that number and makes money on the car.

The 4680 helps a lot, and they are holding back on the pack size its should lie able to hit 100 and I think its a 75KWH car right now so room left to add a good amount of range.

Only Ford has told us the truth about what they make on EV's and they lose money with a more expensive car.

Elon said all last year supply chain problems made the car way more expensive than it should be.
 
I have to work with the sensibilities of people who are obcessed with EVs, so it's not an easy task. Speaking of making sense... Folks who live in Wisconsin, and see 4 EVs and think they're taking over the nation, for instance. wink back at ya.

~6 months ago, Wisconsin registered a whopping 10,000 EVs representing a colossally enormous huge gigantic 0.62% of all vehicles registered, for instance. Even if we allow for a tripling of that number in just the last 6 months, less than 2 out of 100 drivers in Wisconsin pick an EV.

https://electrek.co/2022/08/24/current-ev-registrations-in-the-us-how-does-your-state-stack-up/
lol, 4 on my road alone which seems nuts. Anyway I went from seeing 1 EV a week last year to if I don't see multiple in a day it's odd.

I'm sure around 2 in 100 choose a Mercedes or 2 in 100 choose a new diesel truck that isn't a commercial vehicle. There's a lot of options out there. It would be odd if 30% chose to buy electric tomorrow, they aren't 30% of the production. My local coffee shop seems to have 2 sitting out there at a time. I guess EV owners really like their coffee. 😂
 
This isn't a price haggling over Tesla, competition. Fine, it's a $50,000 base model car. I yield.

The hilarious point here is that some of ya'll think this helps your argument. It's a cheaper car than I had guessed, (and I frankly don't care on this point). But Tesla is doing worse on even the cheaper cars with the rebates and price drops. This hurts your argument, it doesn't help it. The funny thing is some of ya'll don't know that.
 
This isn't a price haggling over Tesla, competition. Fine, it's a $50,000 base model car. I yield.

The hilarious point here is that some of ya'll think this helps your argument. It's a cheaper car than I had guessed, (and I frankly don't care on this point). But Tesla is doing worse on even the cheaper cars with the rebates and price drops. This hurts your argument, it doesn't help it. The funny thing is some of ya'll don't know that.
They made a lower model with less range for a better price. That’s a bad thing how?

The Model 3 is $42k which is pretty reasonable considering what it is.
 
They made a lower model with less range for a better price. That’s a bad thing how?

The Model 3 is $42k which is pretty reasonable considering what it is.
Point being, if it's not clear, a $7500 rebate now represents nearly twice what it did when I was thinking these were higher priced cars. Further, Tesla has less downward room to keep lowering pricing, lowering margins.

A lowered price car does not help the pro-Tesla arguments here. Econ 101. These should be flying out the doors. Not decreasing sales as a % of growth (yes, for the simple analysis they did sell more, I get it. But the dropping or stagnant % growth points to saturation and slowing demand versus prior periods).
 
You continue to grossly misrepresent my position. I have expressly stated they sold the most cars in Q1, a record number. But the % growth has declined. Greater sales, absolutely. But at a radically slower rate IN SPITE OF THE PRICE CUT 1-TRICK PONY AND THE SOON EXPIRING TAX REBATES.

Stop misrepresenting my position.

Further, the EV market "domination" is very small. Like 1 in 20 or something. Toyota alone has around 10 models, 6 of which in the top 12 vehicles sold. Toyota sells something like 6x as many vehicles as Tesla. And Toyota is just 1 auto maker. Further still, there's a finite number of EVs Tesla can sell, and within probably 3-5 years that 5-10% that Tesla dominates, is going to be shared between Toyota, Ford, GM, Stallanis, and maybe others. China will probably also just steal all the tech and there goes the Asian market.

It's a tech/auto company. I'm confident the other companies can, in the near term, do it as well or better.

Tesla should enjoy it at the top b/c it's going to be a short ride.
I understood your point. You are saying, correctly, that Q1 vs Q1 over time shows growth in pure numbers but diminishing as a growth ratio Q1 vs Q1. Completely true.
What I am saying is, raw numbers are meaningless without context. Saying the higher number is better can only be true if everything is held in constant. You understand that those earlier (higher) percentages were in unprofitable quarters, right? Before Shanghai, little Fremont was supplying the world. Tesla could not make cars fast enough; they added mfg lines and shifts. 24x7. They grew by adding existing local buildings and built subassemblies that were trucked to Fremont to add factory capacity.

I am also saying that Tesla dominates the EV market and is taking market share from the ICE companies. I've mentioned Tesla Q1 sales vs legendary legacy companies like BMW, MBZ and VW. Tesla is kicking their behind right now. And doing it with basically 2 vehicles.

You mention Toyotas sales numbers in 2022. Toyota generally sells about 8x the units vs Tesla, yet in some quarters Tesla equals their profit in dollar value.

How do you call that flatlining or decline in any sense of the word?
 
Not sure if you are talking about Tesla, but the Fremont plant has more than 20,000 workers, far more than NUMMI ever did. They are always hiring. Biggest US vehicle mfg in US. Austin will be even bigger. May ramp to 1M annual run rate
We can hope. Yet they’re opening a plant in Monterrey Mexico, no? And selling cars with Chinese licensed cell designs?

Always some bad with the good.
 
Not sure if you are talking about Tesla, but the Fremont plant has more than 20,000 workers, far more than NUMMI ever did. They are always hiring. Biggest US vehicle mfg in US. Austin will be even bigger. May ramp to 1M annual run rate
None in particular. My large problem I have likely not been clear about is not really the EVs. It is the idea that the corrupt US gov has decided they can and will tell us all what we can and can not purchase in the future. Its like , "how would many of us react if they came out and passed laws etc... "you will now have to purchase one brand and one brand only of Iphones, auto tires, shoes, computers all because we know better than thou! It is easy for me (maybe others too) to forget TESLA is an entire , complete different type animal/company than most inventors/manufacturers. Matter of fact I like just about everything I read about Elon. People like him dont come around very often. Hopefully he will allow his passion for creating outpace some passions for outrageous riches. Thus far he does seem to take money and reinvest it in himself / inventions / products. People may be very surprised if they read anything about the early years of Henry Ford and his Ford Motor Company. He was quite the inventor and quite a good man in the begining. He made it 100% clear to his employees in the begining he was not interested in making a product so expensive only the elite could have one. He wanted to and made his very first cars priced in a way so even his own employees could afford to purchase them. Those are very strong convictions that many business leaders would be incapable of accomplishing. Ford not only pulled it off but he also helped auto support companies (like Holley carbs) to become successful. Most of them became ultra rich while not overwhelmed in greed like almost all CEOs and business owners are these days. I would love to see some automobile spread sheets that document the costs of all involved in making a vehicle (say the new Ford Bronco or Chevy Volt or the even wilder to me $60,000 to $90,000 pick up trucks) and see how much it really costs the company vs what they expect Joe consumer to fork out for these new vehicles. If I go back and track the vehicles I have purchased since the late 70s and usually do not buy another on average for at least 10-12 years they almost always seem to double or more in prices.... Does not seem real/true that all of the costs involved could cause the prices to climb that fast - mostly outpacing the entire domestic + world's economies...? Does it? Especially when near all of the older established auto manufacturing support/parts suppliers domestically have been stomped out of existence by all of the knock off / over seas cheap companies that took over and supposedly to help manufacturers save money they could not do domestically. So that is another reason to ask "how/why prices of cars just continue the climb to madness levels? Why do we see none of all these cost savings? Savings from foreign and just about abussive slave labor in place of the domestic workers all these companies claimed they were forced to turn their backs on and relocate? How do prices keep sky rocketing instead of settling or slowing down?
 
We can hope. Yet they’re opening a plant in Monterrey Mexico, no? And selling cars with Chinese licensed cell designs?

Always some bad with the good.
Here's a list; not all information updated. Monterrey has proximety to TX, is affluent, has a large educated workforce. Will likely build the everyman's Model Y. There is an untapped Latin Central market to open.
Thet are talking about another US factory; I forget where.
 
We can hope. Yet they’re opening a plant in Monterrey Mexico, no? And selling cars with Chinese licensed cell designs?

Always some bad with the good.

Probably the "25K" car. is the Mexico car. Sadly Tesla joins everyone else in Mexico.

As for the battery thats a question- I dont know if its going to be a 4680 Car or a CATL pouch car.
 
Oldest son been living in Nashville Tenn since 2006. I recall when we first started going there 2-3 times a year to visit him they were always upgrading the highway systems. Once that was done he told me they have had so many manufacturing facilities locating in and around the city. Nissan was one I saw. They had a longtime , large Dell computer facility that just up and closed and then relocated to another country. Layed off many folks on that one. Then Chevrolet had a large place in Springhill ...near son's house. This was the place Saturns were made until they went belly up. Now Chevy is supposed to be re-working the place for EV related components. Not building the cars but some type of support. Wonder how many millions they plan to lose on that one before begging for gov aid?
 
Probably the "25K" car. is the Mexico car. Sadly Tesla joins everyone else in Mexico.

As for the battery thats a question- I dont know if its going to be a 4680 Car or a CATL pouch car.
We live in a world economy and a world market. Manufacturers are in the business of making money. In addition to financial considerations, market penetration plays a role in factory locations.
Tesla believes they can make and sell 4M mini Model Y vehicles per year. Production is likely to split between Monterrey and Shanghai.

Tesla recently gained a special lane for its suppliers at a Texas–Mexico border checkpoint a few months ago.
Canada may be the next Giga factory. There will be more.
 
Oldest son been living in Nashville Tenn since 2006. I recall when we first started going there 2-3 times a year to visit him they were always upgrading the highway systems. Once that was done he told me they have had so many manufacturing facilities locating in and around the city. Nissan was one I saw. They had a longtime , large Dell computer facility that just up and closed and then relocated to another country. Layed off many folks on that one. Then Chevrolet had a large place in Springhill ...near son's house. This was the place Saturns were made until they went belly up. Now Chevy is supposed to be re-working the place for EV related components. Not building the cars but some type of support. Wonder how many millions they plan to lose on that one before begging for gov aid?
I have said before that a key reason I bought the Model 3 in Dec 2018 was the reopening of the ex GM ex NUMMI plant in Fremont, right up the road. When NUMMI shuttered, many lost homes and the local economy suffered. Parts suppliers, restaurants, many businesses were affected. Today more than 20K people work there, far more than NUMMI ever had. I choose to support this with more than lip service.
 
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