Originally Posted By: KrisZ
STOP watching Discovery channel, the nonsense they produce is just phenomenal.
It's definitely variable. That's for sure. There are more reliable sources if one's primary goal isn't idle entertainment.
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We have been on this Earth roughly 300,000 years, I think we have bigger problems on our hands then our sun going supernova in FEW MILLION YEARS!!!.
"We", as in "life", probably 3.5+ billion years. We as in genus Homo, a couple of million. We, as in Homo sapiens sapiens, probably more like 100,000.
Our sun is not massive enough to go supernova. It might go nova. Well before that, after it runs out of hydrogen to fuse, it will begin to fuse helium and other elements, and will gradually expand into a Red Giant.
We used to think that it would expand past the orbit of the Earth. However, it appears likely not. So the good news is that the Earth will not be engulfed by the sun. The bad news is that it will still be burnt to a cinder.
All this is ~5 billion years in the future. Not "a few million".
After which, our sun will likely settle into old age as a white dwarf, harboring a core of degenerate matter. Not fusing. But still radiating left-over heat.
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...like what if all humans just disappeared...
We are distributed widely enough that actual extinction is unlikely. Human civilization is a house of cards, though. It wouldn't take much of a breeze to blow it down.
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...what if all ice caps melted
The northern cap is well on its way. This is something that *is* going to happen, at least in summer, and in the not too distant future. What I am saying here is not at all controversial.
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and all other gloom and doom fantasies, that previously were filmed in Hollywood, but now are presented on Discovery channel and they even have "specialists" commenting on these fictional "what ifs" just to make it credible.
Discovery channel is certainly science programming for the unwashed masses. But I get the impression that you could do with some science catch-up work. No offence intended.
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Scare tactics at their best, even if fictional, but people will keep these images in mind next time they hear of a tornado, hurricane or an earth quake.
Human beings are embarrassingly bad at risk assessment. One of the most spectacular videos I have seen, and I imagine it originally aired on "Discovery", was about us being on the ray traversed by a Gamma Ray Burst originating with a star in our Milky Way galaxy. A GRB so close, and aimed in this direction, would strip our atmosphere in minutes to hours. We'd all die more or less instantly, with no warning at all.
Of course, the chances of it happening are astronomical, in comparison to, say, a strike by an NEO. We've currently done enough observation that we're pretty sure that a Yucatan scale strike is unlikely in the next few centuries. But we've done almost nothing to rule out the possibility of a Tunguska-scale strike over any time-scale.