Southwest heatwave puts huge strain on the power grid

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  • To reach the 2045 target while electrifying other sectors to meet the state’s economy-wide climate goals, California will need to roughly triple its current electricity grid capacity.
  • California will need to sustain its expansion of clean electricity generation capacity at a record-breaking rate for the next 25 years. On average, the state may need to build up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable and storage resources annually.
 
It could be bad or it could be an opportunity. Depends on how we handle it.
Rolling blackouts are already dangerous. Time to get into action.

Clearly, there is work to do in support of future energy needs.
If anyone can do it, CA can. We have the will and the $$.
I am optimistic about the future.
Yes, California has shown itself to be imminently capable of rolling out major infrastructure projects on time and budget.

Just look at the success of High Speed Rail.
 
AZ has the Palo Verde nuclear plant with three reactors(if I remember this right) Ca. gets some of its power from AZ since their system is so crappy. Run that AC baby! I like the push for electric cars and no mention of the power grid and provideing more electric.
 
It could be bad or it could be an opportunity. Depends on how we handle it.
Rolling blackouts are already dangerous. Time to get into action.

Clearly, there is work to do in support of future energy needs.
If anyone can do it, CA can. We have the will and the $$.
I am optimistic about the future.
But you don't have the leadership!
 
Why not gas powered a/c units if people are so in love with gas engines? They are a huge consumer of electricity. Why pick on cars? My family moved a lot. In the mid 50’s we moved to Phoenix. The day we arrived it was 115, a record for the date. No a/c in the car. No a/c in the housing. They bought a brand new brick 3/2 with bonus room for 10k. I remember the address, it was on W. Citrus Way. No one had a/c except one family. They owned several homes and rented them. We called them the rich people, one reason was they had a/c. My first time in a/c was in their house, it was a marvel. Everyone else had a swamp cooler on the roof. Dad bought a new car, no a/c. In early 60’s they moved to Calif. still no a/c in car or house. I still have no house a/c, but have it in the car finally. You can live without air conditioning. As for which would be easiest to live without, it would be a/c before an electric car if all had to be electric.
As for it being hot somewhere in 1918, it doesn’t work like that. 1918 was a cold year, but climate is not weather already give it a rest.

I lived in Birmingham, AL as a kid with no AC. We had a big ceiling fan in the hallway that would create a breeze at night. Our cars were not AC'd.This was in the 60's.
 
Hypothetically what will be the impact if the majority of vehicles are EV?
You should be asking yourself what the impact will be if we globally continue burning fossil fuels. Privately-owned EVs simply allow individuals to maintain an entitled lifestyle with slightly less guilt. This is not a sustainable path, nor is it reversible.
 
CNN has reported a few times in recent days that some western hydro plants generating electricity are producing 20% to 25% less energy since the water flow from the dams are at a lower then normal level.

We are experiencing that in Ontario. Hydro is operating at less than 50% capacity because levels are low. We didn't have much spring run-off this year. Luckily, Pickering 8 just came back from maintenance so we have close to 11,000MW of nuclear online right now.

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Screen Shot 2021-06-18 at 6.53.46 PM.png


For context, we have 9,060MW of installed hydro (light blue) that's currently producing 3,714MW. I haven't seen it break 5,000MW. This is why we are burning so much gas (dark blue). Pickering 8 came back and will directly displaced 518MW of that gas. Unfortunately, we are still down Bruce 3, which is apparently getting some upgrades. I don't expect it back for the summer. Bruce 6 is out for refurbishment as is Darlington 3 so we only have 15 of 18 units available.
 
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We are experiencing that in Ontario. Hydro is operating at less than 50% capacity because levels are low. We didn't have much spring run-off this year. Luckily, Pickering 8 just came back from maintenance so we have close to 11,000MW of nuclear online right now.

Edit to add:
View attachment 60775

For context, we have 9,060MW of installed hydro (light blue) that's currently producing 3,714MW. I haven't seen it break 5,000MW. This is why we are burning so much gas (dark blue). Pickering 8 came back and will directly displaced 518MW of that gas. Unfortunately, we are still down Bruce 3, which is apparently getting some upgrades. I don't expect it back for the summer. Bruce 6 is out for refurbishment as is Darlington 3 so we only have 15 of 18 units available.
I see there is room to pulse the hydro output every day. I take it they build up the water level slightly in the reservoir each night and open up the flow at a higher rate through the generators during the peak period. Correct?
 
Hypothetically what will be the impact if the majority of vehicles are EV?

The same thing when we have refinery fire, we "wait" and pay up.

The CAISO alert I got yesterday is to recommend turning things off between 5pm and 10pm, seems like the duck curve is pushing further and further into the evening. I remember it used to be 1-7pm a few years ago. Don't charge your EV or dry your clothes, turn off useless stuff, precool your home before 5pm, etc.

Most people with EV don't ONLY have EV in their household, they usually also have a gasoline car/truck.
 
Yes, if power is available.
Unless you are in the rural community when PG&E has to shutdown the powerline due to fire risk, you will always have power available here in the summer nights past duck curve hours. Which as of yesterday it is after 10pm.
 
price you pay for the New Green deal
This happens way before the New Green deal.

From my understanding we first start seeing this during the Enron time, then "magically" we start seeing it regularly. I suspect it has to do with profit and our refineries somehow always have maintenance during the summer winter blend switch. I remember the time when natural gas was expensive during the summer when power plants were migrating from coal to gas, and the expensive NG price ended up hurting a lot of the NG plants. You cannot have it both ways and IMO diversify the sources would reduce any single one gouging us with a monopoly. This year is early than usual though, we have duck curve but we also have record drought, without solar our peak would have been 1-7pm instead of 5-10pm, I am not sure which one would hurt more people but we probably still need to pay up.

BTW, gas is $4-4.35 for 87, so 13-26c/kwh is still a good deal if you charge from 12am-7am.
 
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I see there is room to pulse the hydro output every day. I take it they build up the water level slightly in the reservoir each night and open up the flow at a higher rate through the generators during the peak period. Correct?
There is a limit on how much you can do, there's also chinook salmon you need to worry about and you don't want a flash flood every single day downstream. The amount of power demand swing can be massive in a state with the #8 in the world economy if it is a country of its own.
 
Enough EV's and that demand stops being low.
To be "fair" if there is such a thing, we do have high demand for a lot of things once in a while. Gasoline due to refinery fire / maintenance, electricity due to summer heat, water due to drought and almond / alfalfa farming and salmon preservation, natural gas seems to be stable now but there used to be some jack up prices before fracking was popular. Home insurance dropping you because they lost their shirt on the wildfire damages.....

At one point gasoline was almost $5 a gal back in 2008, that's like $7.50-8 in 2021 money and that's before the gas tax increase we have a couple years ago. One way or another unless you are driving a Chevy Volt or Prius, or work from home, you likely will be screwed. Luckily you can either cash out by leaving the state selling your inflated home price or you can make big enough of a salary to pay for them. What's another $100 a month on electricity when your home price is $3M for a normal home and salary is $350k to pay for that.

Sometimes I feel like we have been through so much earthquakes don't scare me anymore.
 
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