Solar power is getting cheaper every year

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The saving grace will be natural gas turbines. They're so incredibly cheap and can be installed like overnight. Who cares if they only run minutes or hours a day to fill the gaps


The people who bought them.

I'm all for renewables, but the 'gap' paradigm needs to change as does the delivery charge. Everyone wants to utilize the grid to 'backup' but apparently no one want to pay for its maintenance.

If renewables cost more 1.5x what I pay now, to support the grid I would gladly utilize them (I voluntarily pay a clean energy surcharge now)

The benefits of having a substantially less polluting grid will reap tremendous benefits
 
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I have no sympathy for the US power producers. They sit and reap the profits for the stockholders yet only update their infrastructure when forced to.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
I have no sympathy for the US power producers. They sit and reap the profits for the stockholders yet only update their infrastructure when forced to.


LOL, coming from the guy who tips used engine oil on the ground to save a buck...

For something that takes a couple billion to build, has a "design life" of 25 years or 150,000 hours of operation, has a huge energy investment in it's construction, it makes logical sense to do what needs doing to get another 5, 10, 15+ year out of them.

Not everything wears out at the same time...One of the machines I was looking after, the hot reheat bifurcations reached the end of life, in terms of years and hours, and was suffering massive creep damage...replacement cost $250k...the rest of that pipe run, boilers and turbines were good for another 20 years.

By the same logic, when a solar field has been in service for 10 years, and the glass is scratched due to windstorms, efficiency is down, and there's new equipment on the market which is 2% better efficiency, should they rip up the acreage and replant with new ?
 
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Originally Posted By: SHOZ
I have no sympathy for the US power producers. They sit and reap the profits for the stockholders yet only update their infrastructure when forced to.


I'm gonna agree with that. Its the most conservative, old world, industry on earth. I've seen 60 to 80 year old equipment still in service. Some of the stuff nobody knows why it was done a certain way. So they just don't touch it. "Well we've always done it that way" is something you hear a lot.

The solar cells still have a long way to go. I was out at a site and saw water infusion into brand new units. Like the water vapor droplets you see in really old double pane windows.
 
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Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
SteveSRT8 said:
SHOZ said:
These are tax credits and not direct government payments.


Yes, that was quite clear. But they would still seem a bit revenue negative to a government that is way short every time! Since we borrow money and pay huge interest as well anything that involves revenues should be carefully evaluated just like expenditures...
In debt a 'reported' $19T. Give me a break. They could cut out all tax credits and barely make a dent. Do you feel guilty taking tax deductions?


I run a business. I pay BOTH ends of the payroll taxes. My contributions are HUGE. We get very few breaks, and if we accidentally make any money it must be applied to me or my Wife's taxes.

How simplistic to imagine that you can just dismiss something because in your opinion it is too big or too small. Very convenient, too.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
SteveSRT8 said:
SHOZ said:
These are tax credits and not direct government payments.


Yes, that was quite clear. But they would still seem a bit revenue negative to a government that is way short every time! Since we borrow money and pay huge interest as well anything that involves revenues should be carefully evaluated just like expenditures...
In debt a 'reported' $19T. Give me a break. They could cut out all tax credits and barely make a dent. Do you feel guilty taking tax deductions?


I run a business. I pay BOTH ends of the payroll taxes. My contributions are HUGE. We get very few breaks, and if we accidentally make any money it must be applied to me or my Wife's taxes.

How simplistic to imagine that you can just dismiss something because in your opinion it is too big or too small. Very convenient, too.
And talk is cheap. Payroll taxes are not income taxes. Do you deduct the payroll taxes you payout from your business's income as a business expense?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
I run a business. I pay BOTH ends of the payroll taxes. My contributions are HUGE. We get very few breaks, and if we accidentally make any money it must be applied to me or my Wife's taxes.

How simplistic to imagine that you can just dismiss something because in your opinion it is too big or too small. Very convenient, too.

[/quote]And talk is cheap. Payroll taxes are not income taxes. Do you deduct the payroll taxes you payout from your business's income as a business expense? [/quote]

I am a Fla. S Corp. My taxes are my business, not yours. Assume whatever you like as we small biz owners are the solution to this country's economic woes, not the problem.

Let's stay focused on the topic. Distraction doesn't work well.
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8

I run a business. I pay BOTH ends of the payroll taxes. My contributions are HUGE. We get very few breaks, and if we accidentally make any money it must be applied to me or my Wife's taxes.

How simplistic to imagine that you can just dismiss something because in your opinion it is too big or too small. Very convenient, too.

And talk is cheap. Payroll taxes are not income taxes. Do you deduct the payroll taxes you payout from your business's income as a business expense? [/quote]

I am a Fla. S Corp. My taxes are my business, not yours. Assume whatever you like as we small biz owners are the solution to this country's economic woes, not the problem.

Let's stay focused on the topic. Distraction doesn't work well. [/quote]Yes lets not detract when your argument falls apart. You complain about income tax credits yet use them too like any business would to reduce taxable income.
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
you imagine you know things. That's almost funny, except I am afraid you are serious.
Been running a business out of my home for 5 years. I know what you can deduct and can't. A simple google search shows that payroll taxes are a legitimate business expense.

How can you assume what I know?
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ


...I am a Fla. S Corp. My taxes are my business, not yours. Assume whatever you like as we small biz owners are the solution to this country's economic woes, not the problem...




thumbsup2.gif
 
Those government discounts are great until you have to replace the solar panels and you realize you are limited to panels so expensive it would be counter productive, you go back to gas and electricity and you now have solar mane decoration on your rhouse until it's finally time to replace your roof and it not makes financial sense to tear the panels back off and dispose of them.
 
Originally Posted By: corndogzombie
Those government discounts are great until you have to replace the solar panels and you realize you are limited to panels so expensive it would be counter productive, you go back to gas and electricity and you now have solar mane decoration on your rhouse until it's finally time to replace your roof and it not makes financial sense to tear the panels back off and dispose of them.
15-20 year life; how much cheaper and more efficient will they be then? If I were to put panels in they would be on the ground.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: corndogzombie
Those government discounts are great until you have to replace the solar panels and you realize you are limited to panels so expensive it would be counter productive, you go back to gas and electricity and you now have solar mane decoration on your rhouse until it's finally time to replace your roof and it not makes financial sense to tear the panels back off and dispose of them.
15-20 year life; how much cheaper and more efficient will they be then? If I were to put panels in they would be on the ground.

Perhaps things have changed but in the past the government tax breaks required the use of certain non interchangeable and expensive panrlels. It wasn't practical or feasible to spend the money to replace them
 
Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR


Back to topic, I am pretty sure that any utility company in any country will be happy to pay 2.5 US cents for 1 kWh solar power. The problem is somehow Dubai got that contract but no one else could get that deal.


Once you look at how much (little) a blue collar worker gets paid in Dubai, it's not hard to figure out how they can do so much for so cheap. Imported foreign workers make even less.
 
Solar Sold in Chile at Lowest Ever, Half Price of Coal

Even cheaper than in Dubai at $29.10 a MWh

Quote:
That’s the lowest price on record for electricity from sunshine, surpassing a deal in Dubai in May. It’s the cheapest to date for any kind of renewable energy, and was almost half the price of coal power sold in the same event. According to Solarpack General Director Inigo Malo de Molina, it’s one of the lowest rates ever for any kind of electricity, anywhere.

“Solar energy technology has evolved and proved it is competitive,” Molina said in a telephone interview from Santiago. “Prices for electricity generation have changed drastically in the last years. Solar energy in Chile is now the cheapest in the market.”

A key part of the low price is the ever-declining price for solar panels. The average price on the spot market declined this week to 44.7 cents a watt for standard polysilicon panels, a record low.
 
Except, and again, it's the thermals that provide the load following and frequency control.

When renewables are in control, they will have to provide that, and it's going to be $300+ per MW to provide the capacity, storage and controls.

While in disruptive mode, and providing energy only, not what's needed to support the grid, of course it's cheap.


Thursday, the Oz grid was surfing frequency...49.8379 @ 0604 and 50.1523 @ 0700 for example.

Renewables are pushing out schedulable (controllable) generation...it's a fact, and it's the future...but in doing so, they have to be held to account to actually provide the functionality that a grid requires.

Suicide plugged solar simply doesn't do that eh ?
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Except, and again, it's the thermals that provide the load following and frequency control.

When renewables are in control, they will have to provide that, and it's going to be $300+ per MW to provide the capacity, storage and controls.

While in disruptive mode, and providing energy only, not what's needed to support the grid, of course it's cheap.


Thursday, the Oz grid was surfing frequency...49.8379 @ 0604 and 50.1523 @ 0700 for example.

Renewables are pushing out schedulable (controllable) generation...it's a fact, and it's the future...but in doing so, they have to be held to account to actually provide the functionality that a grid requires.

Suicide plugged solar simply doesn't do that eh ?
So how soon do you think we will be running 50-60% renewables? Do you think any technology will come along between then and now to mitigate your concerns?
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
So how soon do you think we will be running 50-60% renewables? Do you think any technology will come along between then and now to mitigate your concerns?


:presses repeat:

Plenty of technology is out there...but it's expensive.

When the disruptive tehcnologies (solar and wind) push traditional technologies out the door, which they are doing, they need to man up to the game.

There will need to be 3-4 times the nameplate rating to simply harvest the energy required when it's available, and there needs to be storage to hold it, then there needs to be the inverters and capacity to release it as and when it's needed.

If solar/win are free, the round trip through storage is $230+/MWh (23c+ per KWh) at current and forseeable prices, assuming that there's enough lithium to do it, or enough land to cover with panels or wind farms.

At the moment, while in disruptive phase, it CAn be cheap, it doesn't have to do the heavy lifting.

Here's a pretty rational paper

http://ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/event/documents/API-100pc renewables-2016-02-24a.pdf

Based on our Electricity market provider's data

https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/aemo-modelling-outcomes

Note the assumptions made in getting there:
* land avalable at zero cost
* availability of biomass in sufficient quantities not being taken from other utilisations
* sufficient storage
* and importantly assumes that the existing hydro facilities are operated as a public service rather than a competetive business
* basically requires stepping back to the '70s with full govt control of utilities.
 
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